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ZhenYangx2

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- ZhenYangx2ZhenYangx2
  ·2021-11-10
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ZhenYangx2ZhenYangx2
  ·2021-11-08
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ZhenYangx2ZhenYangx2
  ·2021-10-26
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- ZhenYangx2ZhenYangx2
  ·2021-10-06
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- ZhenYangx2ZhenYangx2
  ·2021-10-04
  Ok
  Sun Life to buy U.S. benefits firm DentaQuest for $2.5 bln in biggest deal since 2001
  TORONTO, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Sun Life Financial said it will acquire U.S. dental benefits provider Den
  Sun Life to buy U.S. benefits firm DentaQuest for $2.5 bln in biggest deal since 2001
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- ZhenYangx2ZhenYangx2
  ·2021-10-03
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- ZhenYangx2ZhenYangx2
  ·2021-09-29
  Ok
  Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"
  Summary Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect
  Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"
  776 评论
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- ZhenYangx2ZhenYangx2
  ·2021-09-26
  Ok
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ZhenYangx2ZhenYangx2
  ·2021-09-25
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- ZhenYangx2ZhenYangx2
  ·2021-09-24
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23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sun Life to buy U.S. benefits firm DentaQuest for $2.5 bln in biggest deal since 2001","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170376971","media":"Reuters","summary":"TORONTO, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Sun Life Financial said it will acquire U.S. dental benefits provider Den","content":"<p>TORONTO, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Sun Life Financial said it will acquire U.S. dental benefits provider DentaQuest for $2.48 billion in its biggest deal in two decades, becoming the latest cashed-up Canadian insurance company pursuing growth outside its home market.</p>\n<p>The deal to acquire the United States' second-largest dental benefits provider, with more than 33 million members, will add about $100 million to its U.S. underlying income in its first full-year after closing, executives at Canada's second-largest life insurer said on an analyst call on Monday.</p>\n<p>Sun Life announced the deal late on Sunday.</p>\n<p>It is the biggest acquisition since Sun Life bought Clarica Life Insurance, from where Chief Executive Kevin Strain joined the company, for C$7.3 billion ($5.8 billion) in 2002, according to a spokeswoman.</p>\n<p>Sun Life shares rose 1.7% to C$66.20 in morning trading in Toronto, compared with a 0.4% decline in the stock benchmark .</p>\n<p>After synergies, expected to be $60 million, the firm is expected to add 24 Canadian cents to underlying earnings per share and 50 basis points to its return on equity, Canaccord Genuity analyst Scott Chan said, adding the transaction is \"expected to support Sun Life's peer-leading ROE metrics.\"</p>\n<p>The deal follows a slew of other acquisitions in recent years by Canadian life insurers, who, facing limited growth at home and holding record levels of capital, pursue deals overseas, particularly in the United States recently.</p>\n<p>Great-West Lifeco was the latest, agreeing in July to pay C$4.45 billion to buy Prudential Financial Inc's full-service retirement business.</p>\n<p>Sun Life itself has been expanding in the U.S. group benefits business, albeit with smaller deals, including that of U.S. medical intelligence and health-care navigation provider PinnacleCare and benefits platform Maxwell Health https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sun-life-financial-acquires-maxwell-health-300659355.html.</p>\n<p>It had previously flagged an appetite to grow its group benefits and stop-loss business, which protects against unpredictable losses.</p>\n<p>The deal gives Sun Life the \"flexibility to maneuver\" in future and make additional investments, particularly as it seeks to expand its pharmacy stop-loss business as well as to take advantage of potential expansions of health care services and funding in the U.S., executives said on the call.</p>\n<p>Sun Life will incur transaction and integration costs of $250 million, the executives said.</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sun Life to buy U.S. benefits firm DentaQuest for $2.5 bln in biggest deal since 2001</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSun Life to buy U.S. benefits firm DentaQuest for $2.5 bln in biggest deal since 2001\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-sun-life-buy-u-145827435.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>TORONTO, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Sun Life Financial said it will acquire U.S. dental benefits provider DentaQuest for $2.48 billion in its biggest deal in two decades, becoming the latest cashed-up Canadian...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-sun-life-buy-u-145827435.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SLF":"永明金融"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-sun-life-buy-u-145827435.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170376971","content_text":"TORONTO, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Sun Life Financial said it will acquire U.S. dental benefits provider DentaQuest for $2.48 billion in its biggest deal in two decades, becoming the latest cashed-up Canadian insurance company pursuing growth outside its home market.\nThe deal to acquire the United States' second-largest dental benefits provider, with more than 33 million members, will add about $100 million to its U.S. underlying income in its first full-year after closing, executives at Canada's second-largest life insurer said on an analyst call on Monday.\nSun Life announced the deal late on Sunday.\nIt is the biggest acquisition since Sun Life bought Clarica Life Insurance, from where Chief Executive Kevin Strain joined the company, for C$7.3 billion ($5.8 billion) in 2002, according to a spokeswoman.\nSun Life shares rose 1.7% to C$66.20 in morning trading in Toronto, compared with a 0.4% decline in the stock benchmark .\nAfter synergies, expected to be $60 million, the firm is expected to add 24 Canadian cents to underlying earnings per share and 50 basis points to its return on equity, Canaccord Genuity analyst Scott Chan said, adding the transaction is \"expected to support Sun Life's peer-leading ROE metrics.\"\nThe deal follows a slew of other acquisitions in recent years by Canadian life insurers, who, facing limited growth at home and holding record levels of capital, pursue deals overseas, particularly in the United States recently.\nGreat-West Lifeco was the latest, agreeing in July to pay C$4.45 billion to buy Prudential Financial Inc's full-service retirement business.\nSun Life itself has been expanding in the U.S. group benefits business, albeit with smaller deals, including that of U.S. medical intelligence and health-care navigation provider PinnacleCare and benefits platform Maxwell Health https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sun-life-financial-acquires-maxwell-health-300659355.html.\nIt had previously flagged an appetite to grow its group benefits and stop-loss business, which protects against unpredictable losses.\nThe deal gives Sun Life the \"flexibility to maneuver\" in future and make additional investments, particularly as it seeks to expand its pharmacy stop-loss business as well as to take advantage of potential expansions of health care services and funding in the U.S., executives said on the call.\nSun Life will incur transaction and integration costs of $250 million, the executives said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867624461,"gmtCreate":1633258479663,"gmtModify":1633258480545,"author":{"id":"3579843380345732","authorId":"3579843380345732","name":"ZhenYangx2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cfc04b21822116c572f5516e3b9b805","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579843380345732","authorIdStr":"3579843380345732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867624461","repostId":"2172647479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862783390,"gmtCreate":1632914157730,"gmtModify":1632914158003,"author":{"id":"3579843380345732","authorId":"3579843380345732","name":"ZhenYangx2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cfc04b21822116c572f5516e3b9b805","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579843380345732","authorIdStr":"3579843380345732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862783390","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>\n <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>\n <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p>\n<p>Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>\n <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>\n <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–\n <i>Investopedia</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>\n</blockquote>\n<ul>\n <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p>\n<p><b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p>\n<p>It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p>\n<p><b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p>\n<p>A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p>\n<p>Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li>\n</ol>\n<p>It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p>\n<p><b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p>\n<p>As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p>\n<p>As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p>\n<p>There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p>\n<p>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p>\n<p>It likely isn’t.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-29 10:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868855024,"gmtCreate":1632631755868,"gmtModify":1632648553807,"author":{"id":"3579843380345732","authorId":"3579843380345732","name":"ZhenYangx2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cfc04b21822116c572f5516e3b9b805","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579843380345732","authorIdStr":"3579843380345732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868855024","repostId":"2170146216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868916858,"gmtCreate":1632573195174,"gmtModify":1632656259023,"author":{"id":"3579843380345732","authorId":"3579843380345732","name":"ZhenYangx2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cfc04b21822116c572f5516e3b9b805","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579843380345732","authorIdStr":"3579843380345732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868916858","repostId":"1149730497","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861839958,"gmtCreate":1632479086274,"gmtModify":1632719716711,"author":{"id":"3579843380345732","authorId":"3579843380345732","name":"ZhenYangx2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cfc04b21822116c572f5516e3b9b805","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579843380345732","authorIdStr":"3579843380345732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861839958","repostId":"1139200710","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}