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agoyagi
agoyagi
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2021-12-30
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Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>
Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde
Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>
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agoyagi
agoyagi
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2021-12-30
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Uber: Ugly Duckling Is Growing Up<blockquote>优步：丑小鸭正在长大</blockquote>
Summary Uber's delivery business is booming and expanding resulting in the company leveraging econo
Uber: Ugly Duckling Is Growing Up<blockquote>优步：丑小鸭正在长大</blockquote>
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agoyagi
agoyagi
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2021-12-24
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Sea Limited: An Early Christmas Gift<blockquote>Sea Limited：一份提前的圣诞礼物</blockquote>
Summary Sea Limited is a growing company in a growing economy. At this stage, the company should be
Sea Limited: An Early Christmas Gift<blockquote>Sea Limited：一份提前的圣诞礼物</blockquote>
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agoyagi
agoyagi
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2021-12-23
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非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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agoyagi
agoyagi
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2021-12-21
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Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>
Summary Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good
Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>
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agoyagi
agoyagi
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2021-12-21
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PLTR Stock Alert: 5 Things to Know About Palantir’s Latest Partnership<blockquote>PLTR股票提醒：关于Palantir最新合作伙伴关系需要了解的5件事</blockquote>
Despite announcing a new multi-year partnership with Dewpoint Therapeutics, shares of Palantir Techn
PLTR Stock Alert: 5 Things to Know About Palantir’s Latest Partnership<blockquote>PLTR股票提醒：关于Palantir最新合作伙伴关系需要了解的5件事</blockquote>
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agoyagi
agoyagi
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2021-12-20
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非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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agoyagi
agoyagi
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2021-12-14
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Palantir Has Now Entered A New Dimension<blockquote>Palantir现已进入新维度</blockquote>
Summary Palantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance. Palantir no
Palantir Has Now Entered A New Dimension<blockquote>Palantir现已进入新维度</blockquote>
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agoyagi
agoyagi
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2021-12-09
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agoyagi
agoyagi
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2021-12-09
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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692164710","repostId":"1106092668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW(NYSE：BABA)的Lazada、印尼的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech & Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差额，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a "take rate" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started "early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech." These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW(NYSE：BABA)的Lazada、印尼的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech & Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差额，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a "take rate" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started "early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech." These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692936120,"gmtCreate":1640824531063,"gmtModify":1640824531167,"author":{"id":"3579932425739623","authorId":"3579932425739623","name":"agoyagi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c802b858e86a9cfcdcb5fd68fc241c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579932425739623","authorIdStr":"3579932425739623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692936120","repostId":"1108936663","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108936663","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639723361,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108936663?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 14:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber: Ugly Duckling Is Growing Up<blockquote>优步：丑小鸭正在长大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108936663","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nUber's delivery business is booming and expanding resulting in the company leveraging econo","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Uber's delivery business is booming and expanding resulting in the company leveraging economies of scale to reach profitability.</li> <li>Mobility business is fast recovering from the pandemic as the economies reopen.</li> <li>Future lockdowns and covid restrictions that were seen before are not likely.</li> <li>Therefore, Uber may be the ugly duckling waiting to become a swan.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b93f3ad8b1091da22c151e759153e2\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MOZCO Mateusz Szymanski/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>优步的送货业务正在蓬勃发展并不断扩大，导致该公司利用规模经济实现盈利。</li><li>随着经济重新开放，移动业务正在从疫情迅速复苏。</li><li>未来不太可能出现以前看到的封锁和covid限制。</li><li>因此，Uber可能是等待变成天鹅的丑小鸭。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MOZCO Mateusz Szymanski/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction and Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>导言和论文</b></blockquote></p><p> I am starting to believe that Uber's(NYSE:UBER)story is unfolding like the story of the ugly duckling. In the early days of going public, Uber suffered ignorance and unfavorable views from the investing community just like the ugly duckling, but today, I believe Uber is just around the corner from blossoming into a beautiful and successful swan.</p><p><blockquote>我开始相信优步（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）的故事正在像丑小鸭的故事一样展开。在上市初期，Uber就像丑小鸭一样遭受着投资界的无知和不利看法，但今天，我相信Uber离绽放成一只美丽而成功的天鹅指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> Uber's business is turning around as the underlying trend forms in favor of the company. From the depths of the pandemic to the pace of recovery seen today, the world changed for good, at least for Uber. One of those changes is food delivery. During the pandemic, consumers could not comfortably leave their houses and dine out resulting in those consumers turning to food delivery permanently growing a business that has been the primary reason for Uber's continuous losses. Thus, as the trend of food delivery continues to grow from the pandemic, Uber's business through economies of scale has been enjoying the favorable trend, and I believe that the convenience of food delivery will allow permanent penetration of delivery in our daily lives. Further, as mobility recovers as well from the pandemic in all aspects, Uber is likely to report a profitable 2022 fiscal year. Although there are risks of dilution,Covid and macroeconomic risks, I believe now is finally the time to consider investing in the ugly duckling.</p><p><blockquote>随着潜在趋势对该公司有利，优步的业务正在好转。从疫情的深渊到今天的复苏步伐，世界变得更好了，至少对优步来说是这样。其中一个变化是食品配送。在疫情期间，消费者无法舒适地离开家外出就餐，导致这些消费者转向送餐业务，这是优步持续亏损的主要原因。因此，随着外卖趋势从疫情持续增长，优步通过规模经济的业务一直在享受有利趋势，我相信外卖的便利性将使外卖永久渗透到我们的日常生活中。此外，随着出行在各个方面都从疫情中恢复，Uber可能会在2022财年实现盈利。尽管存在稀释风险、新冠疫情和宏观经济风险，但我相信现在终于是考虑投资丑小鸭的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favorable Trend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有利趋势</b></blockquote></p><p> Pandemic brought devastation across nearly all industries and aspects of our lives; however, for Uber, I believe pandemic turned out to be beneficial for the company. Uber's major businesses are delivery and mobility. Before the pandemic, while the mobility business was starting to report positive adjusted EBTIDA, the delivery business continued to struggle. The market was relatively smaller and competitive leading to Uber spending immense amounts of capital on sales, marketing, and development. Even worse, the economies of scale were not seen at the time. However, times have changed for the delivery business. First, the food delivery industry exploded in popularity. For example, Uber's delivery business grew almost 3 fold from 2019Q4. This massive growth in the industry allowed Uber to leverage economies of scale leading to improving bottom lines. Further, the adaption of the delivery culture in the daily lives of the people allowed Uber to expand its business to more than delivering foods. The company is currently delivering groceries, Christmas trees, and even alcoholic beverages. Therefore, as the market continues to mature, Uber can leverage economies of scale to turn around its loss-leading delivery business into a profitable giant.</p><p><blockquote>疫情给我们生活的几乎所有行业和方方面面带来了破坏；然而，对于优步来说，我相信疫情对公司有利。Uber的主要业务是送货和移动出行。在大流行之前，虽然移动业务开始报告积极的调整后EBTIDA，但交付业务继续陷入困境。市场相对较小且竞争激烈，导致优步在销售、营销和开发上花费了大量资金。更糟糕的是，当时没有看到规模经济。然而，对于快递业务来说，时代已经变了。一是外卖行业爆火。例如，Uber的配送业务较2019年第四季度增长了近3倍。该行业的巨大增长使Uber能够利用规模经济来提高利润。此外，外卖文化在人们日常生活中的适应使优步能够将其业务扩展到外卖之外。该公司目前正在运送食品杂货、圣诞树，甚至酒精饮料。因此，随着市场的不断成熟，Uber可以利用规模经济将亏损领先的外卖业务扭亏为盈。</blockquote></p><p> Some critics may argue that delivery was only successful because consumers were not comfortable going outside during the pandemic. I would like to argue otherwise. A pandemic may have been the driving factor behind the adaption of the delivery service by the public; however, convenience was what is and will sustain this business model. Through innovation seen in the past decades, we have seen how much consumers care about convenience through the rise of Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB), and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). Why socialize digitally when you can meet others physically? Why order packages online and wait days when you can simply go buy that product today? Why use smartphones when you already had mobile phones? Consumers will never go back to the more inconvenient way of life.</p><p><blockquote>一些批评者可能会认为，送货之所以成功，只是因为消费者在疫情期间不愿意外出。我想提出不同的观点。疫情可能是公众适应送货服务背后的驱动因素；然而，便利性是维持这种商业模式的动力。通过过去几十年的创新，我们看到了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）、Meta Platforms（纳斯达克：FB）和苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）的崛起，消费者是多么关心便利性。当你可以与他人见面时，为什么还要进行数字社交呢？当你今天就可以去购买产品的时候，为什么要在网上订购套餐，然后等上几天呢？既然已经有了手机，为什么还要用智能手机呢？消费者永远不会回到更不方便的生活方式。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike the delivery business, the mobility business was damaged by the pandemic, but it is expected that the mobility business will return to 2019 levels as the impact of the pandemic wanes. As the picture below shows, the mobility business in the world's biggest cities has almost returned to normalcy after the lockdown showing that the demand for ride-hailing services is still present. Further, as pandemic subsides and offices re-open, the mobility business will continue to grow.</p><p><blockquote>与配送业务不同，移动出行业务受到了疫情的损害，但预计随着疫情影响的减弱，移动出行业务将恢复到2019年的水平。如下图所示，全球最大城市的移动业务在封锁后几乎恢复正常，这表明对网约车服务的需求仍然存在。此外，随着疫情的消退和办公室的重新开放，移动业务将继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a5ee8af7dd1261e2686a20efa4d3b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Covid Fears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新冠恐惧</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although pandemic was the leading cause of the delivery business success, a worsening pandemic will most likely damage my bullish thesis. A mobility business, a business segment set to lead profitability, will be heavily damaged; however, contrary to the mainstream media's opinion, I believe this scenario is unlikely to unfold due to vaccines and public sentiments.</p><p><blockquote>尽管疫情是快递业务成功的主要原因，但不断恶化的疫情很可能会损害我的看涨论点。移动业务是一个将引领盈利能力的业务部门，将受到严重损害；然而，与主流媒体的观点相反，我认为由于疫苗和公众情绪，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer(NYSE:PFE) on December 8th confirmed that theirCovid vaccines are still effective against the Omicron variant. The company said that a preliminary study \"demonstrates that three doses [of the vaccines] neutralize the Omicron variant while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers.\" The company's claims are backed by Omicron orCovid outbreak unfolding in many European nations including Italy, France, the UK, and more.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PFE）12月8日证实，他们的新冠疫苗对奥密克戎变种仍然有效。该公司表示，一项初步研究“表明，三剂[疫苗]可以中和奥密克戎变种，而两剂则显示中和滴度显着降低。”该公司的说法得到了奥密克戎或新冠疫情在许多欧洲国家爆发的支持，包括义大利、法、英等。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe98b474db7223afa7617f0cb8545e42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8849809f79a66a367009de9b31677d63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/415cdc534da7dc5a6d6f9e754adf099e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Using France as an example, the first picture above shows theCovid cases rising exponentially while the second picture shows the death rate is range-bound. The vaccination rate, shown in the third picture, backs up Pfizer's claim regarding the efficacy of its vaccines because while infections are rising, fatalities are limited due to the vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>以法国为例，上面的第一张图显示了Covid病例呈指数级上升，而第二张图显示了死亡率在一定范围内。第三张图所示的疫苗接种率支持了辉瑞关于其疫苗功效的说法，因为虽然感染率在上升，但疫苗导致的死亡人数有限。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the public's resent for more lockdowns and extreme restrictions are most likely to make Uber's mobility segment of the business more resilient than previous outbreaks.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公众对更多封锁和极端限制的不满很可能会使优步的移动业务部门比之前的疫情爆发更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Uber's balance sheet along with valuation is great. According to Uber's quarterly report, Uber reported revenue growth of 72% year-over-year to $4.8 billion dollars with $8 million positive adjusted EBITDA. After years of losses, the delivery businesses reached a near breakeven level to -0.1% adjusted EBITDA margin. Further, the company's mobility or mobility business had a 5.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, which was on par with the pre-pandemic margins. Overall, the continual improvement of the company's business is resulting in decreasing losses and a stronger balance sheet. Uber has about $5.6 billion in cash and about $33 billion in total assets while the total liabilities were about $20 billion bringing total liability to asset ratio (L/A) to about 60%. All in all, I believe Uber's balance sheet is strong enough to sustain the company's operation given no major changes.</p><p><blockquote>Uber的资产负债表和估值都很棒。根据Uber的季度报告，Uber报告收入同比增长72%，达到48亿美元，调整后EBITDA为800万美元。经过多年的亏损后，快递业务达到了接近盈亏平衡的水平，调整后EBITDA利润率为-0.1%。此外，该公司的移动或移动业务调整后EBITDA利润率为5.5%，与大流行前的利润率持平。总体而言，公司业务的持续改善导致亏损减少和资产负债表更加强劲。优步拥有约56亿美元现金和约330亿美元总资产，而总负债约为200亿美元，总资产负债率(L/A)约为60%。总而言之，我相信在没有重大变化的情况下，Uber的资产负债表足以维持公司的运营。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation of Uber is slightly high. Uber, still unprofitable, trades at about 4.7 times price to sales ratio and about 3 times the forward price to sales ratio. These numbers may seem minimal in comparison with other companies, but because the margin expansion for Uber is questionable, I would say that Uber's valuation today is slightly high. However, as the business turns to reach profitability in the near future, I think the slightly high valuation seen in Uber may be manageable for some investors.</p><p><blockquote>Uber的估值略高。仍未盈利的Uber的市销率约为4.7倍，远期市销率约为3倍。与其他公司相比，这些数字似乎很小，但由于Uber的利润率扩张值得怀疑，我想说Uber目前的估值略高。然而，随着该业务在不久的将来实现盈利，我认为优步略高的估值对于一些投资者来说可能是可以控制的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Investing in Uber comes with significant risks including dilution risks and macroeconomic risks. Uber has been extremely unprofitable for the past years resulting in massive dilution.Uber's outstanding shares increased 12.35% in 2018, 160.62% in 2019, 40.42% in 2020, and 8.2% to date in 2021. As such, to maintain the company's operations, Uber continuously diluted its existing shareholders. Thus, any hurdles to reaching profitability may result in even more dilution in the future. Also, the reason for Uber's financial health today is because of the massive dilution. Further, macroeconomic risks beyond Uber's control may impact the company. Inflation is already at historical highs, and it may continue to stay at these levels resulting in an even faster pace of tapering and rising rates by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, because Uber is still not profitable, raising rates will most likely affect the company negatively.</p><p><blockquote>投资优步会带来重大风险，包括稀释风险和宏观经济风险。Uber过去几年一直极度无利可图，导致大规模稀释。Uber的流通股在2018年上涨了12.35%，2019年上涨了160.62%，2020年上涨了40.42%，2021年迄今上涨了8.2%。因此，为了维持公司的运营，Uber不断稀释现有股东。因此，实现盈利的任何障碍都可能导致未来更多的稀释。此外，Uber如今财务状况良好的原因是大规模稀释。此外，优步无法控制的宏观经济风险可能会影响该公司。通胀已经处于历史高位，可能会继续保持在这些水平，导致美联储更快地缩减和加息。因此，由于Uber仍未盈利，提高费率很可能会对公司产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> No one knows for sure if Uber will blossom into a beautiful swan from an ugly duckling, but today, I am starting to be cautiously bullish on Uber. Pandemic ultimately benefited the company's overall operations leading to a boom in the delivery business, which aided in Uber reaching unit economics. Further, the delivery business is expected to expand as consumers adapt to a more convenient way of life. For the mobility business, there were significant damages; however, as Uber has shown, the mobility business is strongly recovering to 2019 levels as the economies reopen. Therefore, as Uber attempts to turn around its business, I believe investors should worth consider investing in Uber. After all, Uber may blossom into a beautiful swan.</p><p><blockquote>没有人确切知道Uber是否会从丑小鸭绽放成美丽的天鹅，但今天，我开始谨慎看好Uber。疫情最终使公司的整体运营受益，导致配送业务蓬勃发展，这有助于优步实现单位经济效益。此外，随着消费者适应更便捷的生活方式，快递业务预计将扩大。对于移动业务来说，损失惨重；然而，正如Uber所展示的那样，随着经济重新开放，移动业务正在强劲复苏至2019年的水平。因此，随着Uber试图扭转业务，我相信投资者应该值得考虑投资Uber。毕竟，Uber可能会绽放成一只美丽的天鹅。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber: Ugly Duckling Is Growing Up<blockquote>优步：丑小鸭正在长大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber: Ugly Duckling Is Growing Up<blockquote>优步：丑小鸭正在长大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-17 14:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Uber's delivery business is booming and expanding resulting in the company leveraging economies of scale to reach profitability.</li> <li>Mobility business is fast recovering from the pandemic as the economies reopen.</li> <li>Future lockdowns and covid restrictions that were seen before are not likely.</li> <li>Therefore, Uber may be the ugly duckling waiting to become a swan.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b93f3ad8b1091da22c151e759153e2\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MOZCO Mateusz Szymanski/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>优步的送货业务正在蓬勃发展并不断扩大，导致该公司利用规模经济实现盈利。</li><li>随着经济重新开放，移动业务正在从疫情迅速复苏。</li><li>未来不太可能出现以前看到的封锁和covid限制。</li><li>因此，Uber可能是等待变成天鹅的丑小鸭。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MOZCO Mateusz Szymanski/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction and Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>导言和论文</b></blockquote></p><p> I am starting to believe that Uber's(NYSE:UBER)story is unfolding like the story of the ugly duckling. In the early days of going public, Uber suffered ignorance and unfavorable views from the investing community just like the ugly duckling, but today, I believe Uber is just around the corner from blossoming into a beautiful and successful swan.</p><p><blockquote>我开始相信优步（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）的故事正在像丑小鸭的故事一样展开。在上市初期，Uber就像丑小鸭一样遭受着投资界的无知和不利看法，但今天，我相信Uber离绽放成一只美丽而成功的天鹅指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> Uber's business is turning around as the underlying trend forms in favor of the company. From the depths of the pandemic to the pace of recovery seen today, the world changed for good, at least for Uber. One of those changes is food delivery. During the pandemic, consumers could not comfortably leave their houses and dine out resulting in those consumers turning to food delivery permanently growing a business that has been the primary reason for Uber's continuous losses. Thus, as the trend of food delivery continues to grow from the pandemic, Uber's business through economies of scale has been enjoying the favorable trend, and I believe that the convenience of food delivery will allow permanent penetration of delivery in our daily lives. Further, as mobility recovers as well from the pandemic in all aspects, Uber is likely to report a profitable 2022 fiscal year. Although there are risks of dilution,Covid and macroeconomic risks, I believe now is finally the time to consider investing in the ugly duckling.</p><p><blockquote>随着潜在趋势对该公司有利，优步的业务正在好转。从疫情的深渊到今天的复苏步伐，世界变得更好了，至少对优步来说是这样。其中一个变化是食品配送。在疫情期间，消费者无法舒适地离开家外出就餐，导致这些消费者转向送餐业务，这是优步持续亏损的主要原因。因此，随着外卖趋势从疫情持续增长，优步通过规模经济的业务一直在享受有利趋势，我相信外卖的便利性将使外卖永久渗透到我们的日常生活中。此外，随着出行在各个方面都从疫情中恢复，Uber可能会在2022财年实现盈利。尽管存在稀释风险、新冠疫情和宏观经济风险，但我相信现在终于是考虑投资丑小鸭的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favorable Trend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>有利趋势</b></blockquote></p><p> Pandemic brought devastation across nearly all industries and aspects of our lives; however, for Uber, I believe pandemic turned out to be beneficial for the company. Uber's major businesses are delivery and mobility. Before the pandemic, while the mobility business was starting to report positive adjusted EBTIDA, the delivery business continued to struggle. The market was relatively smaller and competitive leading to Uber spending immense amounts of capital on sales, marketing, and development. Even worse, the economies of scale were not seen at the time. However, times have changed for the delivery business. First, the food delivery industry exploded in popularity. For example, Uber's delivery business grew almost 3 fold from 2019Q4. This massive growth in the industry allowed Uber to leverage economies of scale leading to improving bottom lines. Further, the adaption of the delivery culture in the daily lives of the people allowed Uber to expand its business to more than delivering foods. The company is currently delivering groceries, Christmas trees, and even alcoholic beverages. Therefore, as the market continues to mature, Uber can leverage economies of scale to turn around its loss-leading delivery business into a profitable giant.</p><p><blockquote>疫情给我们生活的几乎所有行业和方方面面带来了破坏；然而，对于优步来说，我相信疫情对公司有利。Uber的主要业务是送货和移动出行。在大流行之前，虽然移动业务开始报告积极的调整后EBTIDA，但交付业务继续陷入困境。市场相对较小且竞争激烈，导致优步在销售、营销和开发上花费了大量资金。更糟糕的是，当时没有看到规模经济。然而，对于快递业务来说，时代已经变了。一是外卖行业爆火。例如，Uber的配送业务较2019年第四季度增长了近3倍。该行业的巨大增长使Uber能够利用规模经济来提高利润。此外，外卖文化在人们日常生活中的适应使优步能够将其业务扩展到外卖之外。该公司目前正在运送食品杂货、圣诞树，甚至酒精饮料。因此，随着市场的不断成熟，Uber可以利用规模经济将亏损领先的外卖业务扭亏为盈。</blockquote></p><p> Some critics may argue that delivery was only successful because consumers were not comfortable going outside during the pandemic. I would like to argue otherwise. A pandemic may have been the driving factor behind the adaption of the delivery service by the public; however, convenience was what is and will sustain this business model. Through innovation seen in the past decades, we have seen how much consumers care about convenience through the rise of Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB), and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). Why socialize digitally when you can meet others physically? Why order packages online and wait days when you can simply go buy that product today? Why use smartphones when you already had mobile phones? Consumers will never go back to the more inconvenient way of life.</p><p><blockquote>一些批评者可能会认为，送货之所以成功，只是因为消费者在疫情期间不愿意外出。我想提出不同的观点。疫情可能是公众适应送货服务背后的驱动因素；然而，便利性是维持这种商业模式的动力。通过过去几十年的创新，我们看到了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）、Meta Platforms（纳斯达克：FB）和苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）的崛起，消费者是多么关心便利性。当你可以与他人见面时，为什么还要进行数字社交呢？当你今天就可以去购买产品的时候，为什么要在网上订购套餐，然后等上几天呢？既然已经有了手机，为什么还要用智能手机呢？消费者永远不会回到更不方便的生活方式。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike the delivery business, the mobility business was damaged by the pandemic, but it is expected that the mobility business will return to 2019 levels as the impact of the pandemic wanes. As the picture below shows, the mobility business in the world's biggest cities has almost returned to normalcy after the lockdown showing that the demand for ride-hailing services is still present. Further, as pandemic subsides and offices re-open, the mobility business will continue to grow.</p><p><blockquote>与配送业务不同，移动出行业务受到了疫情的损害，但预计随着疫情影响的减弱，移动出行业务将恢复到2019年的水平。如下图所示，全球最大城市的移动业务在封锁后几乎恢复正常，这表明对网约车服务的需求仍然存在。此外，随着疫情的消退和办公室的重新开放，移动业务将继续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a5ee8af7dd1261e2686a20efa4d3b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Covid Fears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新冠恐惧</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Although pandemic was the leading cause of the delivery business success, a worsening pandemic will most likely damage my bullish thesis. A mobility business, a business segment set to lead profitability, will be heavily damaged; however, contrary to the mainstream media's opinion, I believe this scenario is unlikely to unfold due to vaccines and public sentiments.</p><p><blockquote>尽管疫情是快递业务成功的主要原因，但不断恶化的疫情很可能会损害我的看涨论点。移动业务是一个将引领盈利能力的业务部门，将受到严重损害；然而，与主流媒体的观点相反，我认为由于疫苗和公众情绪，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p> Pfizer(NYSE:PFE) on December 8th confirmed that theirCovid vaccines are still effective against the Omicron variant. The company said that a preliminary study \"demonstrates that three doses [of the vaccines] neutralize the Omicron variant while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers.\" The company's claims are backed by Omicron orCovid outbreak unfolding in many European nations including Italy, France, the UK, and more.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PFE）12月8日证实，他们的新冠疫苗对奥密克戎变种仍然有效。该公司表示，一项初步研究“表明，三剂[疫苗]可以中和奥密克戎变种，而两剂则显示中和滴度显着降低。”该公司的说法得到了奥密克戎或新冠疫情在许多欧洲国家爆发的支持，包括义大利、法、英等。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe98b474db7223afa7617f0cb8545e42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8849809f79a66a367009de9b31677d63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/415cdc534da7dc5a6d6f9e754adf099e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Using France as an example, the first picture above shows theCovid cases rising exponentially while the second picture shows the death rate is range-bound. The vaccination rate, shown in the third picture, backs up Pfizer's claim regarding the efficacy of its vaccines because while infections are rising, fatalities are limited due to the vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>以法国为例，上面的第一张图显示了Covid病例呈指数级上升，而第二张图显示了死亡率在一定范围内。第三张图所示的疫苗接种率支持了辉瑞关于其疫苗功效的说法，因为虽然感染率在上升，但疫苗导致的死亡人数有限。</blockquote></p><p> Further, the public's resent for more lockdowns and extreme restrictions are most likely to make Uber's mobility segment of the business more resilient than previous outbreaks.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公众对更多封锁和极端限制的不满很可能会使优步的移动业务部门比之前的疫情爆发更具弹性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Uber's balance sheet along with valuation is great. According to Uber's quarterly report, Uber reported revenue growth of 72% year-over-year to $4.8 billion dollars with $8 million positive adjusted EBITDA. After years of losses, the delivery businesses reached a near breakeven level to -0.1% adjusted EBITDA margin. Further, the company's mobility or mobility business had a 5.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, which was on par with the pre-pandemic margins. Overall, the continual improvement of the company's business is resulting in decreasing losses and a stronger balance sheet. Uber has about $5.6 billion in cash and about $33 billion in total assets while the total liabilities were about $20 billion bringing total liability to asset ratio (L/A) to about 60%. All in all, I believe Uber's balance sheet is strong enough to sustain the company's operation given no major changes.</p><p><blockquote>Uber的资产负债表和估值都很棒。根据Uber的季度报告，Uber报告收入同比增长72%，达到48亿美元，调整后EBITDA为800万美元。经过多年的亏损后，快递业务达到了接近盈亏平衡的水平，调整后EBITDA利润率为-0.1%。此外，该公司的移动或移动业务调整后EBITDA利润率为5.5%，与大流行前的利润率持平。总体而言，公司业务的持续改善导致亏损减少和资产负债表更加强劲。优步拥有约56亿美元现金和约330亿美元总资产，而总负债约为200亿美元，总资产负债率(L/A)约为60%。总而言之，我相信在没有重大变化的情况下，Uber的资产负债表足以维持公司的运营。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation of Uber is slightly high. Uber, still unprofitable, trades at about 4.7 times price to sales ratio and about 3 times the forward price to sales ratio. These numbers may seem minimal in comparison with other companies, but because the margin expansion for Uber is questionable, I would say that Uber's valuation today is slightly high. However, as the business turns to reach profitability in the near future, I think the slightly high valuation seen in Uber may be manageable for some investors.</p><p><blockquote>Uber的估值略高。仍未盈利的Uber的市销率约为4.7倍，远期市销率约为3倍。与其他公司相比，这些数字似乎很小，但由于Uber的利润率扩张值得怀疑，我想说Uber目前的估值略高。然而，随着该业务在不久的将来实现盈利，我认为优步略高的估值对于一些投资者来说可能是可以控制的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Investing in Uber comes with significant risks including dilution risks and macroeconomic risks. Uber has been extremely unprofitable for the past years resulting in massive dilution.Uber's outstanding shares increased 12.35% in 2018, 160.62% in 2019, 40.42% in 2020, and 8.2% to date in 2021. As such, to maintain the company's operations, Uber continuously diluted its existing shareholders. Thus, any hurdles to reaching profitability may result in even more dilution in the future. Also, the reason for Uber's financial health today is because of the massive dilution. Further, macroeconomic risks beyond Uber's control may impact the company. Inflation is already at historical highs, and it may continue to stay at these levels resulting in an even faster pace of tapering and rising rates by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, because Uber is still not profitable, raising rates will most likely affect the company negatively.</p><p><blockquote>投资优步会带来重大风险，包括稀释风险和宏观经济风险。Uber过去几年一直极度无利可图，导致大规模稀释。Uber的流通股在2018年上涨了12.35%，2019年上涨了160.62%，2020年上涨了40.42%，2021年迄今上涨了8.2%。因此，为了维持公司的运营，Uber不断稀释现有股东。因此，实现盈利的任何障碍都可能导致未来更多的稀释。此外，Uber如今财务状况良好的原因是大规模稀释。此外，优步无法控制的宏观经济风险可能会影响该公司。通胀已经处于历史高位，可能会继续保持在这些水平，导致美联储更快地缩减和加息。因此，由于Uber仍未盈利，提高费率很可能会对公司产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> No one knows for sure if Uber will blossom into a beautiful swan from an ugly duckling, but today, I am starting to be cautiously bullish on Uber. Pandemic ultimately benefited the company's overall operations leading to a boom in the delivery business, which aided in Uber reaching unit economics. Further, the delivery business is expected to expand as consumers adapt to a more convenient way of life. For the mobility business, there were significant damages; however, as Uber has shown, the mobility business is strongly recovering to 2019 levels as the economies reopen. Therefore, as Uber attempts to turn around its business, I believe investors should worth consider investing in Uber. After all, Uber may blossom into a beautiful swan.</p><p><blockquote>没有人确切知道Uber是否会从丑小鸭绽放成美丽的天鹅，但今天，我开始谨慎看好Uber。疫情最终使公司的整体运营受益，导致配送业务蓬勃发展，这有助于优步实现单位经济效益。此外，随着消费者适应更便捷的生活方式，快递业务预计将扩大。对于移动业务来说，损失惨重；然而，正如Uber所展示的那样，随着经济重新开放，移动业务正在强劲复苏至2019年的水平。因此，随着Uber试图扭转业务，我相信投资者应该值得考虑投资Uber。毕竟，Uber可能会绽放成一只美丽的天鹅。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475598-uber-ugly-duckling-is-growing-up\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475598-uber-ugly-duckling-is-growing-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108936663","content_text":"Summary\n\nUber's delivery business is booming and expanding resulting in the company leveraging economies of scale to reach profitability.\nMobility business is fast recovering from the pandemic as the economies reopen.\nFuture lockdowns and covid restrictions that were seen before are not likely.\nTherefore, Uber may be the ugly duckling waiting to become a swan.\n\nMOZCO Mateusz Szymanski/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction and Thesis\nI am starting to believe that Uber's(NYSE:UBER)story is unfolding like the story of the ugly duckling. In the early days of going public, Uber suffered ignorance and unfavorable views from the investing community just like the ugly duckling, but today, I believe Uber is just around the corner from blossoming into a beautiful and successful swan.\nUber's business is turning around as the underlying trend forms in favor of the company. From the depths of the pandemic to the pace of recovery seen today, the world changed for good, at least for Uber. One of those changes is food delivery. During the pandemic, consumers could not comfortably leave their houses and dine out resulting in those consumers turning to food delivery permanently growing a business that has been the primary reason for Uber's continuous losses. Thus, as the trend of food delivery continues to grow from the pandemic, Uber's business through economies of scale has been enjoying the favorable trend, and I believe that the convenience of food delivery will allow permanent penetration of delivery in our daily lives. Further, as mobility recovers as well from the pandemic in all aspects, Uber is likely to report a profitable 2022 fiscal year. Although there are risks of dilution,Covid and macroeconomic risks, I believe now is finally the time to consider investing in the ugly duckling.\nFavorable Trend\nPandemic brought devastation across nearly all industries and aspects of our lives; however, for Uber, I believe pandemic turned out to be beneficial for the company. Uber's major businesses are delivery and mobility. Before the pandemic, while the mobility business was starting to report positive adjusted EBTIDA, the delivery business continued to struggle. The market was relatively smaller and competitive leading to Uber spending immense amounts of capital on sales, marketing, and development. Even worse, the economies of scale were not seen at the time. However, times have changed for the delivery business. First, the food delivery industry exploded in popularity. For example, Uber's delivery business grew almost 3 fold from 2019Q4. This massive growth in the industry allowed Uber to leverage economies of scale leading to improving bottom lines. Further, the adaption of the delivery culture in the daily lives of the people allowed Uber to expand its business to more than delivering foods. The company is currently delivering groceries, Christmas trees, and even alcoholic beverages. Therefore, as the market continues to mature, Uber can leverage economies of scale to turn around its loss-leading delivery business into a profitable giant.\nSome critics may argue that delivery was only successful because consumers were not comfortable going outside during the pandemic. I would like to argue otherwise. A pandemic may have been the driving factor behind the adaption of the delivery service by the public; however, convenience was what is and will sustain this business model. Through innovation seen in the past decades, we have seen how much consumers care about convenience through the rise of Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms(NASDAQ:FB), and Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL). Why socialize digitally when you can meet others physically? Why order packages online and wait days when you can simply go buy that product today? Why use smartphones when you already had mobile phones? Consumers will never go back to the more inconvenient way of life.\nUnlike the delivery business, the mobility business was damaged by the pandemic, but it is expected that the mobility business will return to 2019 levels as the impact of the pandemic wanes. As the picture below shows, the mobility business in the world's biggest cities has almost returned to normalcy after the lockdown showing that the demand for ride-hailing services is still present. Further, as pandemic subsides and offices re-open, the mobility business will continue to grow.\n\nCovid Fears\nAlthough pandemic was the leading cause of the delivery business success, a worsening pandemic will most likely damage my bullish thesis. A mobility business, a business segment set to lead profitability, will be heavily damaged; however, contrary to the mainstream media's opinion, I believe this scenario is unlikely to unfold due to vaccines and public sentiments.\nPfizer(NYSE:PFE) on December 8th confirmed that theirCovid vaccines are still effective against the Omicron variant. The company said that a preliminary study \"demonstrates that three doses [of the vaccines] neutralize the Omicron variant while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers.\" The company's claims are backed by Omicron orCovid outbreak unfolding in many European nations including Italy, France, the UK, and more.\n\nUsing France as an example, the first picture above shows theCovid cases rising exponentially while the second picture shows the death rate is range-bound. The vaccination rate, shown in the third picture, backs up Pfizer's claim regarding the efficacy of its vaccines because while infections are rising, fatalities are limited due to the vaccines.\nFurther, the public's resent for more lockdowns and extreme restrictions are most likely to make Uber's mobility segment of the business more resilient than previous outbreaks.\nFinancials and Valuation\nUber's balance sheet along with valuation is great. According to Uber's quarterly report, Uber reported revenue growth of 72% year-over-year to $4.8 billion dollars with $8 million positive adjusted EBITDA. After years of losses, the delivery businesses reached a near breakeven level to -0.1% adjusted EBITDA margin. Further, the company's mobility or mobility business had a 5.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, which was on par with the pre-pandemic margins. Overall, the continual improvement of the company's business is resulting in decreasing losses and a stronger balance sheet. Uber has about $5.6 billion in cash and about $33 billion in total assets while the total liabilities were about $20 billion bringing total liability to asset ratio (L/A) to about 60%. All in all, I believe Uber's balance sheet is strong enough to sustain the company's operation given no major changes.\nThe valuation of Uber is slightly high. Uber, still unprofitable, trades at about 4.7 times price to sales ratio and about 3 times the forward price to sales ratio. These numbers may seem minimal in comparison with other companies, but because the margin expansion for Uber is questionable, I would say that Uber's valuation today is slightly high. However, as the business turns to reach profitability in the near future, I think the slightly high valuation seen in Uber may be manageable for some investors.\nRisks\nInvesting in Uber comes with significant risks including dilution risks and macroeconomic risks. Uber has been extremely unprofitable for the past years resulting in massive dilution.Uber's outstanding shares increased 12.35% in 2018, 160.62% in 2019, 40.42% in 2020, and 8.2% to date in 2021. As such, to maintain the company's operations, Uber continuously diluted its existing shareholders. Thus, any hurdles to reaching profitability may result in even more dilution in the future. Also, the reason for Uber's financial health today is because of the massive dilution. Further, macroeconomic risks beyond Uber's control may impact the company. Inflation is already at historical highs, and it may continue to stay at these levels resulting in an even faster pace of tapering and rising rates by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, because Uber is still not profitable, raising rates will most likely affect the company negatively.\nSummary\nNo one knows for sure if Uber will blossom into a beautiful swan from an ugly duckling, but today, I am starting to be cautiously bullish on Uber. Pandemic ultimately benefited the company's overall operations leading to a boom in the delivery business, which aided in Uber reaching unit economics. Further, the delivery business is expected to expand as consumers adapt to a more convenient way of life. For the mobility business, there were significant damages; however, as Uber has shown, the mobility business is strongly recovering to 2019 levels as the economies reopen. Therefore, as Uber attempts to turn around its business, I believe investors should worth consider investing in Uber. After all, Uber may blossom into a beautiful swan.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBER":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698896783,"gmtCreate":1640331872715,"gmtModify":1640331880243,"author":{"id":"3579932425739623","authorId":"3579932425739623","name":"agoyagi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c802b858e86a9cfcdcb5fd68fc241c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579932425739623","authorIdStr":"3579932425739623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698896783","repostId":"1107827800","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1107827800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640326128,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107827800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 14:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: An Early Christmas Gift<blockquote>Sea Limited：一份提前的圣诞礼物</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107827800","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a growing company in a growing economy.\nAt this stage, the company should be","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea Limited is a growing company in a growing economy.</li> <li>At this stage, the company should be judged on its growth, not earnings.</li> <li>The recent fall in price makes the stock look attractive when compared to similar growth stories.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48c8d49ed462ac489fe8f5fa91f5691\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1031\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>FreshSplash/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家在不断增长的经济中成长的公司。</li><li>在这个阶段，应该根据公司的成长性来判断公司，而不是盈利。</li><li>与类似的增长故事相比，最近的价格下跌使该股看起来很有吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>FreshSplash/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文摘要</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited (SE) is one of those companies that divide the room. The stock was one of the best performing of 2020/2021 but has now fallen over 30% from its all-time high following a general sell-off which has been most felt in growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited(SE)是划分房间的公司之一。该股是2020/2021年表现最好的股票之一，但在普遍抛售之后，目前已从历史高点下跌了30%以上，这在成长型股票中最为明显。</blockquote></p><p> However, Sea's fundamental growth story remains strong, and the fact that it is running at a loss should not bother investors at this point. If we look at each segment individually, there's a lot to like, and an argument could be made for a much higher price than today. On a final note, Sea should also be aided by the recent policy change coming from China's Central bank, the PBOC, and overall macroeconomic trends.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sea的基本增长故事仍然强劲，目前它亏损的事实不应困扰投资者。如果我们单独看每个细分市场，就会发现有很多值得喜欢的地方，并且可以提出比今天高得多的价格的论点。最后，Sea还应该受益于中国央行PBOC最近的政策变化以及整体宏观经济趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Quick Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited has three main segments; Digital Entertainment (Garena), Financial Services (SeaMoney) and E-commerce (Shopee). This is how they performed in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited有三个主要部门：数字娱乐（Garena）、金融服务（SeaMoney）和电子商务（Shopee）。这就是他们上个季度的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cd726650027bd5d269b8fe1f0dd0b14\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"664\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, Digital Entertainment is the only segment bringing in operating income. Meanwhile, eCommerce and Digital Finance are running at a loss. However, the growth rates at this point justify the investment. GMV for Shopee was up 81% YoY, and TPV processed through SeaMoney is up 111% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，数字娱乐是唯一带来营业收入的细分市场。与此同时，电子商务和数字金融正在亏损。然而，目前的增长率证明了投资的合理性。Shopee的GMV同比增长81%，通过SeaMoney处理的TPV同比增长111%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite strong growth across the board, Sea Limited has come down significantly in the last few weeks, providing us with a perfect opportunity to buy a stock with an incredibly appealing fundamental growth story.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面增长强劲，但Sea Limited在过去几周大幅下跌，为我们提供了购买具有令人难以置信的吸引力的基本面增长故事的股票的绝佳机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth And Profitability Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长和盈利前景</b></blockquote></p><p> Firstly, let's talk about Sea's main geographical market; Southeast Asia. SEA economies are experiencing not just a fast level of growth, but also digitalization, which bodes incredibly well for SE.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来谈谈Sea的主要地理市场；东南亚。海洋经济不仅正在经历快速增长，还正在经历数字化，这对SE来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/626a6dc7b34175282aeba7740413ede1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"521\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SEA Economy Report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：海洋经济报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By 2025, the Internet economy is poised to reach over $300 billion in GMV. Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand will be amongst the fastest growing Internet economies, and these are all areas where the company has a strong presence. On top of that, Sea is also expanding into Latin America, where it has challenged and surpassed MercadoLibre (MELI) in some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>到2025年，互联网经济的GMV将超过3000亿美元。印度尼西亚、越南和泰国将成为增长最快的互联网经济体之一，这些都是该公司拥有强大影响力的地区。除此之外，Sea还在向拉丁美洲扩张，在巴西等一些国家挑战并超越了MercadoLibre(MELI)。</blockquote></p><p> Shopee and SeaMoney will grow hand in hand. As Shopee grows, more merchants and consumers will be pulled into the SeaMoney ecosystem, which not only allows digital payments but also helps merchants and consumers get financing. Of course, at the moment the company is focusing on expansion, but we know full well that both eCommerce and Digital Finance can be lucrative segments.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee和SeaMoney将携手发展。随着Shopee的发展，更多的商家和消费者将被拉入SeaMoney生态系统，该生态系统不仅允许数字支付，还可以帮助商家和消费者获得融资。当然，目前该公司正专注于扩张，但我们非常清楚，电子商务和数字金融都可能是利润丰厚的领域。</blockquote></p><p> Garena, which is responsible for creating Free Fire, is on another path. User growth is slowing down, this is true, but there is still plenty of room for monetization. The company has made moves in the right direction here by releasing Free Fire MAX, a premium version of the game. In a recent article on Seeking Alpha,JR Research pointed out that Garena continues to increase the proportion of paying users to active users, which are also growing, albeit at a slower rate.</p><p><blockquote>负责制造自由火力的Garena走的是另一条路。用户增长放缓，这是事实，但变现空间依然很大。该公司在这方面朝着正确的方向迈出了步伐，发布了游戏的高级版本Free Fire MAX。在Seeking Alpha最近的一篇文章中，JR Research指出，Garena继续提高付费用户与活跃用户的比例，活跃用户也在增长，尽管速度较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Comparative Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比较估值</b></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I do feel like sometimes Sea Limited gets judged unfairly, precisely because it has such a successful and profitable segment thanks to Free Fire. Investors often look at Sea's earnings and complain that they aren't growing fast enough, but this is not the company's objective. If Shopee or SeaMoney traded separately as \"exciting and fast-growing start-ups\" investors would be much less harsh with the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我确实觉得Sea Limited有时会受到不公平的评判，正是因为它凭借Free Fire拥有如此成功且盈利的细分市场。投资者经常查看Sea的盈利并抱怨它们增长不够快，但这不是该公司的目标。如果Shopee或SeaMoney作为“令人兴奋且快速增长的初创企业”单独交易，投资者对估值的苛刻程度就会小得多。</blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited is a growth company in a growth economy, and it should be judged on its growth and revenue, not on its earnings:</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited是增长型经济体中的一家成长型公司，应该根据其增长和收入来判断，而不是根据其盈利：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabf7759dd81e88d0603fc2f17137235\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"313\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Above we can see valuation ratios for Sea and what I consider to be some similar companies, though I am sure this will be a contentious point. Meli competes head-on with Sea in the eCommerce and fulfilment space. Roblox (RBLX) is an up and coming game/platform, and it is comparable to Free Fire. Shopify Inc.(NYSE:SHOP)has some unique characteristics, but it is also similar in many ways to Sea. It offers an eCommerce platform and helps merchants sell their products, and Shopify Pay is comparable to SeaMoney. Also, all of these companies are high growth companies through Sea is the best in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>上面我们可以看到Sea的估值比率以及我认为的一些类似公司，尽管我确信这将是一个有争议的问题。Meli在电子商务和履行领域与Sea正面竞争。Roblox（RBLX）是一款崭露头角的游戏/平台，可与Free Fire相媲美。Shopify Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）有一些独特的特征，但它在许多方面也与Sea相似。它提供了一个电子商务平台，帮助商家销售他们的产品，Shopify Pay可与SeaMoney相媲美。此外，所有这些公司都是高增长公司，Sea在这方面是最好的。</blockquote></p><p> In terms of P/S and EV/Sales though, Sea is cheaper than the rest of these companies, except for Meli. Also, I like the fact that Sea has a Price/Book in line with that of Shopify. Arguably these other companies could be said to be overvalued, but the idea here is to compare these companies amongst each other.</p><p><blockquote>不过，就P/S和EV/销售额而言，Sea比除Meli之外的其他公司便宜。此外，我喜欢Sea的价格/书与Shopify一致。可以说，这些其他公司可以说被高估了，但这里的想法是将这些公司相互比较。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, Sea is growing incredibly fast, and though it isn't \"profitable\", we know that it's building a business model that will be. A P/S of 14 seems attractive given all of this and the ratio is below the more recent average of around 20.</p><p><blockquote>最终，Sea的增长速度令人难以置信，尽管它没有“盈利”，但我们知道它正在建立一种将会“盈利”的商业模式。考虑到所有这些因素，14的市盈率似乎很有吸引力，而且该比率低于最近20左右的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他考虑</b></blockquote></p><p> Some investors might think that, with the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, this is not a good time. The first issue here would be; how long can the Fed tighten? We've seen this play out before in 2018, and we know how it ends. More importantly though, while the Fed tightens, the PBOC is loosening monetary policy, as we saw the key benchmark lending rate cut last week.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能会认为，随着美联储收紧货币政策，现在不是一个好时机。第一个问题是：美联储还能收紧多久？我们之前在2018年看到过这种情况，我们知道它会如何结束。但更重要的是，在美联储收紧货币政策的同时，中国人民银行正在放松货币政策，正如我们上周看到的关键基准贷款利率下调。</blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for Sea? The effects are unclear. Easy credit in the area will help the company and its customers, but what about exchange rates? Some of these countries try to keep pegs to major currencies, so this might not change. This would suggest that South Eastern economies might have to follow the Fed in tightening monetary policy to defend this exchange rate.</p><p><blockquote>这对海洋意味着什么？其影响尚不清楚。该地区的宽松信贷将有助于该公司及其客户，但汇率呢？其中一些国家试图保持与主要货币的挂钩，因此这可能不会改变。这表明东南部经济体可能不得不跟随美联储收紧货币政策以捍卫这一汇率。</blockquote></p><p> And lastly, what if COVID returns in full force? Again, the effects would be unclear. In many ways, Sea's business could be improved by this, even if the economy suffers overall.</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果COVID全面回归怎么办？同样，其影响尚不清楚。在许多方面，即使整体经济受到影响，Sea的业务也可以因此得到改善。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing much has changed for Sea Limited in recent months, except for its share price, and I'd be remiss if I didn't point out this buying opportunity. The company is expanding in all areas, and even increasing its profitability, though that is less important. I'm excited to see what 2022 holds for this stock.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，除了股价之外，Sea Limited没有太大变化，如果我不指出这个买入机会，那就是我的失职。该公司正在各个领域扩张，甚至提高了盈利能力，尽管这不太重要。我很高兴看到这只股票在2022年的表现。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: An Early Christmas Gift<blockquote>Sea Limited：一份提前的圣诞礼物</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: An Early Christmas Gift<blockquote>Sea Limited：一份提前的圣诞礼物</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 14:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea Limited is a growing company in a growing economy.</li> <li>At this stage, the company should be judged on its growth, not earnings.</li> <li>The recent fall in price makes the stock look attractive when compared to similar growth stories.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48c8d49ed462ac489fe8f5fa91f5691\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1031\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>FreshSplash/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家在不断增长的经济中成长的公司。</li><li>在这个阶段，应该根据公司的成长性来判断公司，而不是盈利。</li><li>与类似的增长故事相比，最近的价格下跌使该股看起来很有吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>FreshSplash/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Thesis Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文摘要</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited (SE) is one of those companies that divide the room. The stock was one of the best performing of 2020/2021 but has now fallen over 30% from its all-time high following a general sell-off which has been most felt in growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited(SE)是划分房间的公司之一。该股是2020/2021年表现最好的股票之一，但在普遍抛售之后，目前已从历史高点下跌了30%以上，这在成长型股票中最为明显。</blockquote></p><p> However, Sea's fundamental growth story remains strong, and the fact that it is running at a loss should not bother investors at this point. If we look at each segment individually, there's a lot to like, and an argument could be made for a much higher price than today. On a final note, Sea should also be aided by the recent policy change coming from China's Central bank, the PBOC, and overall macroeconomic trends.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sea的基本增长故事仍然强劲，目前它亏损的事实不应困扰投资者。如果我们单独看每个细分市场，就会发现有很多值得喜欢的地方，并且可以提出比今天高得多的价格的论点。最后，Sea还应该受益于中国央行PBOC最近的政策变化以及整体宏观经济趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Quick Recap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>快速回顾</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited has three main segments; Digital Entertainment (Garena), Financial Services (SeaMoney) and E-commerce (Shopee). This is how they performed in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited有三个主要部门：数字娱乐（Garena）、金融服务（SeaMoney）和电子商务（Shopee）。这就是他们上个季度的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cd726650027bd5d269b8fe1f0dd0b14\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"664\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see, Digital Entertainment is the only segment bringing in operating income. Meanwhile, eCommerce and Digital Finance are running at a loss. However, the growth rates at this point justify the investment. GMV for Shopee was up 81% YoY, and TPV processed through SeaMoney is up 111% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，数字娱乐是唯一带来营业收入的细分市场。与此同时，电子商务和数字金融正在亏损。然而，目前的增长率证明了投资的合理性。Shopee的GMV同比增长81%，通过SeaMoney处理的TPV同比增长111%。</blockquote></p><p> Despite strong growth across the board, Sea Limited has come down significantly in the last few weeks, providing us with a perfect opportunity to buy a stock with an incredibly appealing fundamental growth story.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面增长强劲，但Sea Limited在过去几周大幅下跌，为我们提供了购买具有令人难以置信的吸引力的基本面增长故事的股票的绝佳机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth And Profitability Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长和盈利前景</b></blockquote></p><p> Firstly, let's talk about Sea's main geographical market; Southeast Asia. SEA economies are experiencing not just a fast level of growth, but also digitalization, which bodes incredibly well for SE.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我们来谈谈Sea的主要地理市场；东南亚。海洋经济不仅正在经历快速增长，还正在经历数字化，这对SE来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/626a6dc7b34175282aeba7740413ede1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"521\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: SEA Economy Report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：海洋经济报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By 2025, the Internet economy is poised to reach over $300 billion in GMV. Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand will be amongst the fastest growing Internet economies, and these are all areas where the company has a strong presence. On top of that, Sea is also expanding into Latin America, where it has challenged and surpassed MercadoLibre (MELI) in some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>到2025年，互联网经济的GMV将超过3000亿美元。印度尼西亚、越南和泰国将成为增长最快的互联网经济体之一，这些都是该公司拥有强大影响力的地区。除此之外，Sea还在向拉丁美洲扩张，在巴西等一些国家挑战并超越了MercadoLibre(MELI)。</blockquote></p><p> Shopee and SeaMoney will grow hand in hand. As Shopee grows, more merchants and consumers will be pulled into the SeaMoney ecosystem, which not only allows digital payments but also helps merchants and consumers get financing. Of course, at the moment the company is focusing on expansion, but we know full well that both eCommerce and Digital Finance can be lucrative segments.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee和SeaMoney将携手发展。随着Shopee的发展，更多的商家和消费者将被拉入SeaMoney生态系统，该生态系统不仅允许数字支付，还可以帮助商家和消费者获得融资。当然，目前该公司正专注于扩张，但我们非常清楚，电子商务和数字金融都可能是利润丰厚的领域。</blockquote></p><p> Garena, which is responsible for creating Free Fire, is on another path. User growth is slowing down, this is true, but there is still plenty of room for monetization. The company has made moves in the right direction here by releasing Free Fire MAX, a premium version of the game. In a recent article on Seeking Alpha,JR Research pointed out that Garena continues to increase the proportion of paying users to active users, which are also growing, albeit at a slower rate.</p><p><blockquote>负责制造自由火力的Garena走的是另一条路。用户增长放缓，这是事实，但变现空间依然很大。该公司在这方面朝着正确的方向迈出了步伐，发布了游戏的高级版本Free Fire MAX。在Seeking Alpha最近的一篇文章中，JR Research指出，Garena继续提高付费用户与活跃用户的比例，活跃用户也在增长，尽管速度较慢。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Comparative Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比较估值</b></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I do feel like sometimes Sea Limited gets judged unfairly, precisely because it has such a successful and profitable segment thanks to Free Fire. Investors often look at Sea's earnings and complain that they aren't growing fast enough, but this is not the company's objective. If Shopee or SeaMoney traded separately as \"exciting and fast-growing start-ups\" investors would be much less harsh with the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我确实觉得Sea Limited有时会受到不公平的评判，正是因为它凭借Free Fire拥有如此成功且盈利的细分市场。投资者经常查看Sea的盈利并抱怨它们增长不够快，但这不是该公司的目标。如果Shopee或SeaMoney作为“令人兴奋且快速增长的初创企业”单独交易，投资者对估值的苛刻程度就会小得多。</blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited is a growth company in a growth economy, and it should be judged on its growth and revenue, not on its earnings:</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited是增长型经济体中的一家成长型公司，应该根据其增长和收入来判断，而不是根据其盈利：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dabf7759dd81e88d0603fc2f17137235\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"313\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Above we can see valuation ratios for Sea and what I consider to be some similar companies, though I am sure this will be a contentious point. Meli competes head-on with Sea in the eCommerce and fulfilment space. Roblox (RBLX) is an up and coming game/platform, and it is comparable to Free Fire. Shopify Inc.(NYSE:SHOP)has some unique characteristics, but it is also similar in many ways to Sea. It offers an eCommerce platform and helps merchants sell their products, and Shopify Pay is comparable to SeaMoney. Also, all of these companies are high growth companies through Sea is the best in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>上面我们可以看到Sea的估值比率以及我认为的一些类似公司，尽管我确信这将是一个有争议的问题。Meli在电子商务和履行领域与Sea正面竞争。Roblox（RBLX）是一款崭露头角的游戏/平台，可与Free Fire相媲美。Shopify Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）有一些独特的特征，但它在许多方面也与Sea相似。它提供了一个电子商务平台，帮助商家销售他们的产品，Shopify Pay可与SeaMoney相媲美。此外，所有这些公司都是高增长公司，Sea在这方面是最好的。</blockquote></p><p> In terms of P/S and EV/Sales though, Sea is cheaper than the rest of these companies, except for Meli. Also, I like the fact that Sea has a Price/Book in line with that of Shopify. Arguably these other companies could be said to be overvalued, but the idea here is to compare these companies amongst each other.</p><p><blockquote>不过，就P/S和EV/销售额而言，Sea比除Meli之外的其他公司便宜。此外，我喜欢Sea的价格/书与Shopify一致。可以说，这些其他公司可以说被高估了，但这里的想法是将这些公司相互比较。</blockquote></p><p> Ultimately, Sea is growing incredibly fast, and though it isn't \"profitable\", we know that it's building a business model that will be. A P/S of 14 seems attractive given all of this and the ratio is below the more recent average of around 20.</p><p><blockquote>最终，Sea的增长速度令人难以置信，尽管它没有“盈利”，但我们知道它正在建立一种将会“盈利”的商业模式。考虑到所有这些因素，14的市盈率似乎很有吸引力，而且该比率低于最近20左右的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Other Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他考虑</b></blockquote></p><p> Some investors might think that, with the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, this is not a good time. The first issue here would be; how long can the Fed tighten? We've seen this play out before in 2018, and we know how it ends. More importantly though, while the Fed tightens, the PBOC is loosening monetary policy, as we saw the key benchmark lending rate cut last week.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能会认为，随着美联储收紧货币政策，现在不是一个好时机。第一个问题是：美联储还能收紧多久？我们之前在2018年看到过这种情况，我们知道它会如何结束。但更重要的是，在美联储收紧货币政策的同时，中国人民银行正在放松货币政策，正如我们上周看到的关键基准贷款利率下调。</blockquote></p><p> What does this mean for Sea? The effects are unclear. Easy credit in the area will help the company and its customers, but what about exchange rates? Some of these countries try to keep pegs to major currencies, so this might not change. This would suggest that South Eastern economies might have to follow the Fed in tightening monetary policy to defend this exchange rate.</p><p><blockquote>这对海洋意味着什么？其影响尚不清楚。该地区的宽松信贷将有助于该公司及其客户，但汇率呢？其中一些国家试图保持与主要货币的挂钩，因此这可能不会改变。这表明东南部经济体可能不得不跟随美联储收紧货币政策以捍卫这一汇率。</blockquote></p><p> And lastly, what if COVID returns in full force? Again, the effects would be unclear. In many ways, Sea's business could be improved by this, even if the economy suffers overall.</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果COVID全面回归怎么办？同样，其影响尚不清楚。在许多方面，即使整体经济受到影响，Sea的业务也可以因此得到改善。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing much has changed for Sea Limited in recent months, except for its share price, and I'd be remiss if I didn't point out this buying opportunity. The company is expanding in all areas, and even increasing its profitability, though that is less important. I'm excited to see what 2022 holds for this stock.</p><p><blockquote>近几个月来，除了股价之外，Sea Limited没有太大变化，如果我不指出这个买入机会，那就是我的失职。该公司正在各个领域扩张，甚至提高了盈利能力，尽管这不太重要。我很高兴看到这只股票在2022年的表现。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476595-sea-limited-an-early-christmas-gift\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476595-sea-limited-an-early-christmas-gift","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107827800","content_text":"Summary\n\nSea Limited is a growing company in a growing economy.\nAt this stage, the company should be judged on its growth, not earnings.\nThe recent fall in price makes the stock look attractive when compared to similar growth stories.\n\nFreshSplash/E+ via Getty Images\nThesis Summary\nSea Limited (SE) is one of those companies that divide the room. The stock was one of the best performing of 2020/2021 but has now fallen over 30% from its all-time high following a general sell-off which has been most felt in growth stocks.\nHowever, Sea's fundamental growth story remains strong, and the fact that it is running at a loss should not bother investors at this point. If we look at each segment individually, there's a lot to like, and an argument could be made for a much higher price than today. On a final note, Sea should also be aided by the recent policy change coming from China's Central bank, the PBOC, and overall macroeconomic trends.\nA Quick Recap\nSea Limited has three main segments; Digital Entertainment (Garena), Financial Services (SeaMoney) and E-commerce (Shopee). This is how they performed in the last quarter.\nSource: Investor Presentation\nAs we can see, Digital Entertainment is the only segment bringing in operating income. Meanwhile, eCommerce and Digital Finance are running at a loss. However, the growth rates at this point justify the investment. GMV for Shopee was up 81% YoY, and TPV processed through SeaMoney is up 111% YoY.\nDespite strong growth across the board, Sea Limited has come down significantly in the last few weeks, providing us with a perfect opportunity to buy a stock with an incredibly appealing fundamental growth story.\nGrowth And Profitability Prospects\nFirstly, let's talk about Sea's main geographical market; Southeast Asia. SEA economies are experiencing not just a fast level of growth, but also digitalization, which bodes incredibly well for SE.\nSource: SEA Economy Report\nBy 2025, the Internet economy is poised to reach over $300 billion in GMV. Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand will be amongst the fastest growing Internet economies, and these are all areas where the company has a strong presence. On top of that, Sea is also expanding into Latin America, where it has challenged and surpassed MercadoLibre (MELI) in some countries like Brazil.\nShopee and SeaMoney will grow hand in hand. As Shopee grows, more merchants and consumers will be pulled into the SeaMoney ecosystem, which not only allows digital payments but also helps merchants and consumers get financing. Of course, at the moment the company is focusing on expansion, but we know full well that both eCommerce and Digital Finance can be lucrative segments.\nGarena, which is responsible for creating Free Fire, is on another path. User growth is slowing down, this is true, but there is still plenty of room for monetization. The company has made moves in the right direction here by releasing Free Fire MAX, a premium version of the game. In a recent article on Seeking Alpha,JR Research pointed out that Garena continues to increase the proportion of paying users to active users, which are also growing, albeit at a slower rate.\nComparative Valuation\nWith all that said, I do feel like sometimes Sea Limited gets judged unfairly, precisely because it has such a successful and profitable segment thanks to Free Fire. Investors often look at Sea's earnings and complain that they aren't growing fast enough, but this is not the company's objective. If Shopee or SeaMoney traded separately as \"exciting and fast-growing start-ups\" investors would be much less harsh with the valuation.\nSea Limited is a growth company in a growth economy, and it should be judged on its growth and revenue, not on its earnings:\nData Source: Seeking Alpha\nAbove we can see valuation ratios for Sea and what I consider to be some similar companies, though I am sure this will be a contentious point. Meli competes head-on with Sea in the eCommerce and fulfilment space. Roblox (RBLX) is an up and coming game/platform, and it is comparable to Free Fire. Shopify Inc.(NYSE:SHOP)has some unique characteristics, but it is also similar in many ways to Sea. It offers an eCommerce platform and helps merchants sell their products, and Shopify Pay is comparable to SeaMoney. Also, all of these companies are high growth companies through Sea is the best in this regard.\nIn terms of P/S and EV/Sales though, Sea is cheaper than the rest of these companies, except for Meli. Also, I like the fact that Sea has a Price/Book in line with that of Shopify. Arguably these other companies could be said to be overvalued, but the idea here is to compare these companies amongst each other.\nUltimately, Sea is growing incredibly fast, and though it isn't \"profitable\", we know that it's building a business model that will be. A P/S of 14 seems attractive given all of this and the ratio is below the more recent average of around 20.\nOther Considerations\nSome investors might think that, with the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, this is not a good time. The first issue here would be; how long can the Fed tighten? We've seen this play out before in 2018, and we know how it ends. More importantly though, while the Fed tightens, the PBOC is loosening monetary policy, as we saw the key benchmark lending rate cut last week.\nWhat does this mean for Sea? The effects are unclear. Easy credit in the area will help the company and its customers, but what about exchange rates? Some of these countries try to keep pegs to major currencies, so this might not change. This would suggest that South Eastern economies might have to follow the Fed in tightening monetary policy to defend this exchange rate.\nAnd lastly, what if COVID returns in full force? Again, the effects would be unclear. In many ways, Sea's business could be improved by this, even if the economy suffers overall.\nTakeaway\nNothing much has changed for Sea Limited in recent months, except for its share price, and I'd be remiss if I didn't point out this buying opportunity. The company is expanding in all areas, and even increasing its profitability, though that is less important. I'm excited to see what 2022 holds for this stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691435152,"gmtCreate":1640226432944,"gmtModify":1640226433023,"author":{"id":"3579932425739623","authorId":"3579932425739623","name":"agoyagi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c802b858e86a9cfcdcb5fd68fc241c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579932425739623","authorIdStr":"3579932425739623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691435152","repostId":"2193113312","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693442532,"gmtCreate":1640070464472,"gmtModify":1640070464472,"author":{"id":"3579932425739623","authorId":"3579932425739623","name":"agoyagi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c802b858e86a9cfcdcb5fd68fc241c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579932425739623","authorIdStr":"3579932425739623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693442532","repostId":"1117226796","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117226796","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640057164,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117226796?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117226796","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li> <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li> <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies是一只战场股票。听空头的论点对多头来说是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但PLTR对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资，这要归功于强大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信Palantir Technologies是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年带来巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一只成长型股票，可以带来高度确信的多头和高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨阵营，但看看看跌的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东稀释</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司的增长很重要，但每股的增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或破坏大量股东价值。例如，苹果(AAPL)的净利润在过去十年中增长了约190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量下降，其每股收益增长了更具吸引力的350%——回购创造了大量股东价值。也有股票数量增加破坏了大量股东价值的例子，例如花旗集团（C）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>自2007年以来，大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致每股收益下降75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，关注公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为从长远来看，这些变化可能会产生很大的影响。在Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。最近一个季度，Palantir的股票数量如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir的平均股票数量为18.95亿股，季度增长3.5%，年增长率在十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不可忽视，当他们说股东以有意义的速度被稀释时，就值得争论。另一方面，Palantir的业务增长率远高于每季度3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为40%，而且Palantir也应该在未来几年实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释度将会下降。这不仅适用于许多其他成长型公司，例如亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB），但从期权回报的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司成熟，随着公司风险的下降，员工会变得更加舒适，他们不再要求大笔期权套餐。最后但并非最不重要的是，Palantir还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这应该使该公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也应该有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.对政府合同的依赖</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近的一篇看跌文章中，The Pulse的Seeking Alpha撰稿人认为Palantir被高估，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。Palantir Technologies如今确实在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于商业业务的大幅增长，Palantir最近实现了多元化，摆脱了政府合同：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir技术演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各个行业的商业客户显然看到了Palantir技术的巨大价值——否则，他们不会购买Palantir技术。速度很快。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，Palantir将在多年后成为一家越来越不依赖政府合同的公司，并最终成为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使Palantir永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这也不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳定地增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域非常需要进一步投资。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据Palantir最新的季度报告（上面链接），2020年第三季度至2021年第三季度期间，其运营费用增加了900万美元，而同期收入增加了1.03亿美元。这抵消了股权激励的变化。如果将这些SBC费用包括在内，Palantir的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>而该公司的收入同比增长了近40%。因此，我认为Palantir多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明Palantir将能够大幅提高其利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长9000万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长900万美元——从而实现出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在2022年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长较低或没有增长且在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润在遥远未来的公司更容易面临贴现率上升的风险。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股优于成长股。Palantir尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我认为，这里没有真正的反驳——确实，在其他条件相同的情况下，利率上升对Palantir的影响将比艾伯维(ABBV)等价值股更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对Palantir来说是一个增量负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免股票。事实上，即使利率上升带来了一些潜在的阻力，如果其他论点具有更大的权重，Palantir仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我认为PLTR巨大的增长潜力和巨大的护城河超过了近期的一些阻力来自利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么Palantir仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>看空者提出了一系列反对Palantir的论点，如上所示，这些论点可能有其优点。我相信在某些情况下他们可能被夸大了，但看看空头的论点并没有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是太大的阻力，因为PLTR的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在几年内放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将会随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些论点，我相信Palantir仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且Palantir似乎拥有非常宽的护城河。这种合并最终可能会将Palantir变成最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况会在短期内发生。相反，我相信Palantir很有可能在整个2020年代及以后以相当大的速度增长，因为我们的世界变得越来越需要数据——政府和企业都将努力获得最大的价值从所有这些数据中获得，Palantir将凭借其量身定制的解决方案，为其客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的Foundry for Crypto等新工具，Palantir处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于Palantir能够接触到顶尖人才——SBC的结果和良好的工作环境——我相信Palantir很有可能能够在未来的各种市场中具有高度竞争力。大数据/人工智能领域可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir在我的投资组合中有点异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的组合，Palantir对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信Palantir很有可能在未来10多年成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。PLTR明年收入的19倍并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说一点也不奇怪。听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li> <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li> <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies是一只战场股票。听空头的论点对多头来说是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但PLTR对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资，这要归功于强大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信Palantir Technologies是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年带来巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一只成长型股票，可以带来高度确信的多头和高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨阵营，但看看看跌的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东稀释</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司的增长很重要，但每股的增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或破坏大量股东价值。例如，苹果(AAPL)的净利润在过去十年中增长了约190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量下降，其每股收益增长了更具吸引力的350%——回购创造了大量股东价值。也有股票数量增加破坏了大量股东价值的例子，例如花旗集团（C）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>自2007年以来，大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致每股收益下降75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，关注公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为从长远来看，这些变化可能会产生很大的影响。在Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。最近一个季度，Palantir的股票数量如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir的平均股票数量为18.95亿股，季度增长3.5%，年增长率在十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不可忽视，当他们说股东以有意义的速度被稀释时，就值得争论。另一方面，Palantir的业务增长率远高于每季度3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为40%，而且Palantir也应该在未来几年实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释度将会下降。这不仅适用于许多其他成长型公司，例如亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB），但从期权回报的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司成熟，随着公司风险的下降，员工会变得更加舒适，他们不再要求大笔期权套餐。最后但并非最不重要的是，Palantir还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这应该使该公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也应该有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.对政府合同的依赖</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近的一篇看跌文章中，The Pulse的Seeking Alpha撰稿人认为Palantir被高估，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。Palantir Technologies如今确实在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于商业业务的大幅增长，Palantir最近实现了多元化，摆脱了政府合同：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir技术演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各个行业的商业客户显然看到了Palantir技术的巨大价值——否则，他们不会购买Palantir技术。速度很快。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，Palantir将在多年后成为一家越来越不依赖政府合同的公司，并最终成为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使Palantir永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这也不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳定地增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域非常需要进一步投资。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据Palantir最新的季度报告（上面链接），2020年第三季度至2021年第三季度期间，其运营费用增加了900万美元，而同期收入增加了1.03亿美元。这抵消了股权激励的变化。如果将这些SBC费用包括在内，Palantir的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>而该公司的收入同比增长了近40%。因此，我认为Palantir多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明Palantir将能够大幅提高其利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长9000万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长900万美元——从而实现出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在2022年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长较低或没有增长且在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润在遥远未来的公司更容易面临贴现率上升的风险。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股优于成长股。Palantir尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我认为，这里没有真正的反驳——确实，在其他条件相同的情况下，利率上升对Palantir的影响将比艾伯维(ABBV)等价值股更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对Palantir来说是一个增量负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免股票。事实上，即使利率上升带来了一些潜在的阻力，如果其他论点具有更大的权重，Palantir仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我认为PLTR巨大的增长潜力和巨大的护城河超过了近期的一些阻力来自利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么Palantir仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>看空者提出了一系列反对Palantir的论点，如上所示，这些论点可能有其优点。我相信在某些情况下他们可能被夸大了，但看看空头的论点并没有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是太大的阻力，因为PLTR的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在几年内放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将会随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些论点，我相信Palantir仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且Palantir似乎拥有非常宽的护城河。这种合并最终可能会将Palantir变成最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况会在短期内发生。相反，我相信Palantir很有可能在整个2020年代及以后以相当大的速度增长，因为我们的世界变得越来越需要数据——政府和企业都将努力获得最大的价值从所有这些数据中获得，Palantir将凭借其量身定制的解决方案，为其客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的Foundry for Crypto等新工具，Palantir处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于Palantir能够接触到顶尖人才——SBC的结果和良好的工作环境——我相信Palantir很有可能能够在未来的各种市场中具有高度竞争力。大数据/人工智能领域可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir在我的投资组合中有点异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的组合，Palantir对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信Palantir很有可能在未来10多年成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。PLTR明年收入的19倍并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说一点也不奇怪。听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117226796","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.\nPLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.\nDespite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.\n\nspxChrome/E+ via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.\n3 Issues Brought Up By Bears\nPalantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:\n1. Shareholder Dilution\nGrowth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:\nData by YCharts\nThanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):\nData by YCharts\nMassive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:\nSource: Palantir Press Release\nCompared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.\n2. Reliance on government contracts\nIn a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:\nSource: Palantir Technologies presentation\nIn fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With\nWith the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.\nThe claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actuallydeclinedyear-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.\n3. Exposure to rising rates\nMassive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.\nThis being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.\nWhy Palantir Is Still Attractive\nBears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.\nPalantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.\nTakeaway\nIn general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693408072,"gmtCreate":1640055730812,"gmtModify":1640057456895,"author":{"id":"3579932425739623","authorId":"3579932425739623","name":"agoyagi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c802b858e86a9cfcdcb5fd68fc241c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579932425739623","authorIdStr":"3579932425739623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693408072","repostId":"1129749044","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129749044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640052616,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129749044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 10:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PLTR Stock Alert: 5 Things to Know About Palantir’s Latest Partnership<blockquote>PLTR股票提醒：关于Palantir最新合作伙伴关系需要了解的5件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129749044","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Despite announcing a new multi-year partnership with Dewpoint Therapeutics, shares of Palantir Techn","content":"<p><div> Despite announcing a new multi-year partnership with Dewpoint Therapeutics, shares of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) are down more than 4% on the day. The weakness in PLTR stock can be attributed to...</p><p><blockquote><div>尽管宣布与Dewpoint Therapeutics建立新的多年合作伙伴关系，Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）的股价当天仍下跌超过4%。PLTR股票的疲软可归因于...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-alert-5-things-to-know-about-palantirs-latest-partnership/\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-alert-5-things-to-know-about-palantirs-latest-partnership/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PLTR Stock Alert: 5 Things to Know About Palantir’s Latest Partnership<blockquote>PLTR股票提醒：关于Palantir最新合作伙伴关系需要了解的5件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPLTR Stock Alert: 5 Things to Know About Palantir’s Latest Partnership<blockquote>PLTR股票提醒：关于Palantir最新合作伙伴关系需要了解的5件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 10:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Despite announcing a new multi-year partnership with Dewpoint Therapeutics, shares of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) are down more than 4% on the day. The weakness in PLTR stock can be attributed to...</p><p><blockquote><div>尽管宣布与Dewpoint Therapeutics建立新的多年合作伙伴关系，Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）的股价当天仍下跌超过4%。PLTR股票的疲软可归因于...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-alert-5-things-to-know-about-palantirs-latest-partnership/\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-alert-5-things-to-know-about-palantirs-latest-partnership/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-alert-5-things-to-know-about-palantirs-latest-partnership/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/pltr-stock-alert-5-things-to-know-about-palantirs-latest-partnership/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129749044","content_text":"Despite announcing a new multi-year partnership with Dewpoint Therapeutics, shares of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) are down more than 4% on the day. The weakness in PLTR stock can be attributed to general market weakness, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both down today. However, let’s dive into the details on the new partnership that has shareholders of PLTR stock excited.\nThe partnership will see Dewpoint utilize Palantir’s Foundry platform to further research and understand condensates biology. The Foundry platform will help researchers analyze lab data and other data sources. Researchers at Dewpoint will also use Foundry to store their centralized knowledge repository. Additionally, they will use it to contextualize test results and prioritize the best possible outcome.\nLalarukh Haris Shaikh, Palantir’s head of biotech, praised the partnership. She commented:\n\n “We think Dewpoint is changing the way the world approaches drug design by exploring new frontiers of disease biology, requiring a game changing solution that goes beyond just cloud and infrastructure to drive their R&D and scale with their vision as they grow. We are proud to partner with Dewpoint and share their passion of working on one of the most exciting translational medicine approaches of our time.”\n\nPLTR Stock: What to Know About the Dewpoint Partnership\n\nDewpoint is a leading research company that seeks to understand the nature of condensates in order to develop drugs. Condensates are involved in many serious diseases, such as cancer, metabolic disease and other rare genetic disorders.\nThe Foundry platform is designed to integrate siloed information sources that will lead to data-driven analysis and conclusions. Foundry will be able to “work seamlessly” with the existing Dewpoint systems.\nFor example, the expansion of Dewpoint’s data foundation to include “advanced genetic analysis for disease association and correlation with condensate content” will help the company discover potential medical breakthroughs.\nDewpoint CEO Ameet Nathwani is looking forward to the prospects that Foundry can bring to the company. He stated that, “Key to our approach has been creating a seamless connection between our wet-lab and dry-lab capabilities, with machine learning and AI at the center. Foundry has provided us with a solid foundation for us to fully connect and operationalize our entire lab to enterprise and enable the discovery and development of new drugs.”\nThis partnership comes after Palantir announced that they had won a second option year with the U.S. Army. Indeed, that deal is worth $116.3 million.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693825733,"gmtCreate":1640004693660,"gmtModify":1640004693801,"author":{"id":"3579932425739623","authorId":"3579932425739623","name":"agoyagi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c802b858e86a9cfcdcb5fd68fc241c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579932425739623","authorIdStr":"3579932425739623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693825733","repostId":"2192962184","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607361668,"gmtCreate":1639491150271,"gmtModify":1639491150340,"author":{"id":"3579932425739623","authorId":"3579932425739623","name":"agoyagi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c802b858e86a9cfcdcb5fd68fc241c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579932425739623","authorIdStr":"3579932425739623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607361668","repostId":"1163753909","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163753909","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639365199,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163753909?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 11:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Has Now Entered A New Dimension<blockquote>Palantir现已进入新维度</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163753909","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.\nPalantir no","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.</li> <li>Palantir now has the opportunity to leverage its platform's connective tissue to track the flow of funds within decentralized finance applications.</li> <li>Palantir's worked with the IRS since 2013 and prior to the release of Foundry, Gotham was deployed for large financial institutions.</li> <li>In today's article, I will highlight Palantir's roots that lead back to PayPal as well as Palantir's opportunity within fintech.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19fbe474b2b948c1dd476507722b776\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Olemedia/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir最近推出了Foundry for Crypto，为金融的未来赋能。</li><li>Palantir现在有机会利用其平台的结缔组织来跟踪去中心化金融应用程序中的资金流。</li><li>Palantir自2013年以来一直与IRS合作，在Foundry发布之前，Gotham是为大型金融机构部署的。</li><li>在今天的文章中，我将重点介绍Palantir可以追溯到PayPal的根源以及Palantir在金融科技领域的机遇。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Olemedia/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to Palantir (PLTR), most investors are excited by its government business as well as its opportunity in the commercial sector with Foundry for Builders. Today, ~60% of Palantir's business stems from the government, while the other portion comes from the commercial sector. Palantir's platform is known for its artificial intelligence (AI) and deep data insights that provide its customers with critical information to help maximize their profits. Palantir's solutions are built around \"mission-driven engineering\" to integrate information from siloed and unstructured data sets. In this article, we'll explore Palantir's roots that go back to the payments industry and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir(PLTR)，大多数投资者都对其政府业务以及其在商业领域为建筑商铸造的机会感到兴奋。如今，Palantir约60%的业务来自政府，而另一部分来自商业部门。Palantir的平台以其人工智能(AI)和深度数据洞察而闻名，可为客户提供关键信息，帮助他们实现利润最大化。Palantir的解决方案围绕“任务驱动工程”构建，以集成来自孤立和非结构化数据集的信息。在本文中，我们将探讨Palantir的根源，这些根源可以追溯到支付行业和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal and Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel approached fellow Palantir co-founder, Stephen Cohen, in 2004 and told him about his idea for Palantir, here's what he envisioned.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal和Palantir联合创始人Peter Thiel于2004年联系了Palantir联合创始人Stephen Cohen，并告诉他他对Palantir的想法，以下是他的设想。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take some of the ideas from the PayPal Anti-Fraud platform and let's try to generalize them to solve the country's counterterrorism problem. And we'll start by selling it directly to the U.S. Government. And while we're at it, let's solve the generalized enterprise information management platforms that are out there. Let's help big enterprises use a Silicon Valley approach to understanding their data.\"-Stephen Cohen, 2013 Five years ago, a quarter of Palantir's business stemmed from the financial sector - while Palantir's connection to the fintech may not be clear on the surface, the company has a significant opportunity to deploy its AI, specifically Foundry, for fintech applications whether that's current banks or fintech companies such as Elementus, a blockchain analytics platform. Palantir currently serves the IRS and the current banking infrastructure as well as future innovative payment technologies such as cryptocurrencies and smart contracts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从PayPal反欺诈平台中获取一些想法，并尝试将它们概括为解决该国的反恐问题。我们将从直接卖给美国政府开始。同时，让我们来解决现有的通用企业信息管理平台。让我们帮助大企业使用硅谷的方法来理解他们的数据。”—Stephen Cohen，2013五年前，Palantir四分之一的业务来自金融领域—虽然Palantir与金融科技的联系表面上可能并不清楚，但该公司有很大的机会为金融科技应用程序部署其人工智能，特别是Foundry，无论是当前的银行还是区块链分析平台Elementus等金融科技公司。Palantir目前为美国国税局和当前的银行基础设施以及未来的创新支付技术（如加密货币和智能合约）提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Deep Roots In Payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>深厚的支付根基</b></blockquote></p><p> Much of the Palantir \"DNA\" and culture is replicated from PayPal. Palantir's core technology was also inspired by PayPal, specifically PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. Peter Thiel co-founded PayPal with Max Levchin and would later go on to co-find Palantir along with Nathan Gettings, Palantir's first chief technology officer, who was an engineer at PayPal where he worked closely with Levchin fighting payment fraud. This PayPal Anti-Fraud framework would go on to provide the fundamental building blocks for Palantir's first initiative to fight counterterrorism.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的大部分“DNA”和文化都是从PayPal复制的。Palantir的核心技术也受到了PayPal的启发，特别是PayPal的反欺诈平台。Peter Thiel与Max Levchin共同创立了PayPal，后来与Palantir首任首席技术官Nathan Gettings共同创立了Palantir，后者是PayPal的一名工程师，在那里他与Levchin密切合作打击支付欺诈。这个PayPal反欺诈框架将继续为Palantir的第一个反恐举措提供基本构建模块。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir deploys technology within the government that is similar to what it deploys for large financial institutions. The challenges that financial institutions must overcome are similar to those faced in the government context because there are many data sources and many systems that feed input into the financial service sector as well as the government sector. Palantir uses deep data analytics to identify patterns and trends within this information to help its customers manage risk and execute their plans to better navigate complex environments that are constantly changing.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir在政府内部部署类似于为大型金融机构部署的技术。金融机构必须克服的挑战与政府面临的挑战相似，因为有许多数据源和许多系统向金融服务部门和政府部门提供输入。Palantir使用深度数据分析来识别这些信息中的模式和趋势，以帮助客户管理风险并执行计划，从而更好地应对不断变化的复杂环境。</blockquote></p><p> In 2016, about 25% of Palantir's business came from the financial sector as Palantir deployed its Gotham Platform to investigate fraud for large institutions, as reported in its S1. Palantir works with a lot of banks and replaced legacy technology that's been around for over 30 years. For example, Credit Suisse has used Palantir since 2013 to analyze risks and detect fraud using data from more than a hundred systems across their operations.</p><p><blockquote>据其S1报道，2016年，Palantir约25%的业务来自金融领域，因为Palantir部署了Gotham平台来调查大型机构的欺诈行为。Palantir与许多银行合作，取代了已有30多年历史的遗留技术。例如，瑞士信贷自2013年以来一直使用Palantir，利用其运营中一百多个系统的数据来分析风险和检测欺诈行为。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir seeks to become the central operating system for entire industries rather than just a singular customer and Palantir sees an opportunity to create similar industry-wide partnerships within the financial services industry as it has within the U.S. government and aviation industry. Palantir's consistently winning government contracts while Palantir partnered with Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF) to launch SkyWise in 2017 and now works with over 100 airlines.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir寻求成为整个行业的中央操作系统，而不仅仅是单一客户，Palantir看到了在金融服务行业建立类似于美国政府和航空业的全行业合作伙伴关系的机会。Palantir不断赢得政府合同，而Palantir于2017年与空中客车公司(OTCPK：EADSF)合作推出SkyWise，目前与100多家航空公司合作。</blockquote></p><p> Significant Opportunity At Hand</p><p><blockquote>手头的重大机遇</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On November 23, Palantir launched Foundry for Crypto, which will leverage Foundry's defined data integration to automatically build data pipelines and convert unorganized data into a transparent hub.</p><p><blockquote>11月23日，Palantir推出了Foundry for Crypto，它将利用Foundry定义的数据集成来自动构建数据管道，并将无组织的数据转换为透明的中枢。</blockquote></p><p> Foundry for Crypto will enable Web3 startups to leverage the technology that financial institutions use to fight crime. With the current digital transformation underway and the rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies, Palantir leverages its data expertise to power the next generation of finance software.</p><p><blockquote>Foundry for Crypto将使Web3初创公司能够利用金融机构用来打击犯罪的技术。随着当前数字化转型的进行以及加密货币和区块链技术的兴起，Palantir利用其数据专业知识为下一代财务软件提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f2a3fb5ad32eff1f464c225cc4b1f1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"621\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Offerings | Crypto</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：产品|Crypto</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As indicated above, Palantir is chain-agnostic, meaning that Palantir works with multiple blockchains. Palantir integrates transaction data as well as smart contract data which will enable Palantir to leverage the core competencies of its AI and data analysis to provide its KYC (Know-Your-Customer) insights. For example, if somebody were to make a transaction using cryptocurrency from a non-custodial wallet, then it'd typically be a challenge to decipher KYC information from that wallet since the blockchain itself is encrypted and decentralized. Palantir traces the assets in a non-custodial wallet and tracks where the assets were transferred from. This allows Palantir to locate the exchange the asset was originally transferred from and then Palantir can track customer data from the crypto exchange where the asset was purchased, like Coinbase.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，Palantir是链不可知的，这意味着Palantir可以与多个区块链一起工作。Palantir集成了交易数据和智能合约数据，这将使Palantir能够利用其人工智能和数据分析的核心能力来提供KYC（了解您的客户）见解。例如，如果有人要使用非托管钱包中的加密货币进行交易，那么从该钱包中破译KYC信息通常是一个挑战，因为区块链本身是加密和去中心化的。Palantir跟踪非托管钱包中的资产，并跟踪资产的转移地点。这使得Palantir能够找到资产最初转移的交易所，然后Palantir可以跟踪购买资产的加密货币交易所的客户数据，例如Coinbase。</blockquote></p><p> The example above highlights how Palantir digs deep and scrapes the data from the blockchain to learn about a specific individual. This goes a long way in validating secure transactions as Palantir identifies malicious transactions on the blockchain, based on the transaction's location and specific properties. Companies that want to accept cryptocurrencies need secure solutions while they also want to gather insights around their customers to propel their businesses. BNPL companies, like Affirm, which was started by Max Levchin and Nathan Gettings, use advanced risk modeling (also referred to as AI) to offer consumers more fair credit assessments because BNPL companies have access to essential data from both the merchant and the consumer. Palantir could leverage its AI and data insights to help its customers better understand their clientele to offer targeted marketing campaigns or help them identify opportunities that will decrease expenses.</p><p><blockquote>上面的例子强调了Palantir如何深入挖掘并从区块链中抓取数据来了解特定个人。这对于验证安全交易大有帮助，因为Palantir会根据交易的位置和特定属性识别区块链上的恶意交易。希望接受加密货币的公司需要安全的解决方案，同时他们也希望收集客户周围的见解来推动他们的业务。BNPL公司，例如由Max Levchin和Nathan Gettings创立的Affirm，使用高级风险建模（也称为人工智能）为消费者提供更公平的信用评估，因为BNPL公司可以访问来自商家和消费者的重要数据。Palantir可以利用其人工智能和数据洞察来帮助客户更好地了解他们的客户，从而提供有针对性的营销活动或帮助他们发现减少开支的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Foundry for Crypto is still in its early adoption stage as it was recently rolled out and Palantir has multiple opportunities to implement this platform in a variety of industries as payment technology continues to evolve and will reshape the current payments landscape.</p><p><blockquote>Foundry for Crypto仍处于早期采用阶段，因为它是最近推出的，随着支付技术的不断发展，Palantir有多种机会在各个行业实施该平台，并将重塑当前的支付格局。</blockquote></p><p> Smart contracts are another significant opportunity for Palantir. Smart contracts are a set of protocols that are validated and carried out on the flow of data, meaning that once the contract is fulfilled, the data will indicate the contract is satisfied and ensure that the liable party transfers the agreed-upon funds. Palantir has a great opportunity to play a role in the facilitation of data within smart contracts while removing the costs of working with third networks and banks.</p><p><blockquote>智能合约是Palantir的另一个重要机会。智能合约是一组在数据流上验证和执行的协议，这意味着一旦合同履行，数据将表明合同得到满足，并确保责任方转移约定的资金。Palantir有很好的机会在促进智能合同中的数据方面发挥作用，同时消除与第三方网络和银行合作的成本。</blockquote></p><p> One of Palantir's SPAC investments, BlackSky, deploys Foundry and processes real-time satellite imagery to monitor events taking place on Earth. For example, BlackSky can detect if the shipment has been delivered since BlackSky's satellites take images multiple times throughout the day. BlackSky monitors data and information that can only be processed through imagery and is the custodian of monitoring these actions and generating these actions into data points, so that they can inform smart contracts as to whether or not the contract was satisfied. This is a great example of how Palantir's customers may leverage Foundry to process information relating to digital assets and new digital protocols.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的SPAC投资之一BlackSky部署Foundry并处理实时卫星图像以监控地球上发生的事件。例如，BlackSky可以检测货物是否已交付，因为BlackSky的卫星全天多次拍摄图像。BlackSky监控只能通过图像处理的数据和信息，并且是监控这些操作并将这些操作生成数据点的保管人，以便他们可以通知智能合约合同是否得到满足。这是Palantir的客户如何利用Foundry来处理与数字资产和新数字协议相关的信息的一个很好的例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Government's Implemented Palantir's \"FinTech\" Solution Since 2013</b></p><p><blockquote><b>政府自2013年起实施Palantir的“金融科技”解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p> The IRS started working with Palantir in 2013 and Palantir continues to land and expand its partnership with the IRS as it's been awarded nearly $20 million from them over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>IRS于2013年开始与Palantir合作，Palantir继续建立并扩大与IRS的合作伙伴关系，在过去12个月中已获得IRS近2000万美元的资助。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748221a3ed9fc319e2be6ebf40a8e95\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: USAspending.gov</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USAspending.gov</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In May, the IRS launched \"Operation Hidden Gem\", which is an initiative to focus on taxpayers who don't report cryptocurrencies gains. Carolyn Schenck, National Fraud Counsel for the IRS, recently had the following in regards to cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>今年5月，美国国税局发起了“隐藏宝石行动”，这是一项针对不报告加密货币收益的纳税人的举措。美国国税局（IRS）的国家欺诈顾问卡罗琳·申克（Carolyn Schenck）最近就加密货币发表了以下言论。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These transactions are not anonymous, we see you.\" Another issue around crypto fraud, which Palantir's AML is designed to detect, is similar to PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. The IRS recently revealed in its annual report that it seized $3.5 billion so far this year from cryptocurrency-related fraud. Palantir enables the IRS with the solutions that decipher criminal financial schemes and analyzes a variety of data sources in real-time. In the past, Palantir allowed the IRS to track the flow of funds or the flow of assets. For example, if someone were to transfer assets to a bank in the Cayman Islands and then withdraw the cash in the U.S. and use it for a down payment on something like an additional property, Palantir's deep data analysis will connect this information that's siloed, and present it to the IRS so that they can handle the specific situations accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>这些交易不是匿名的，我们看到你了。”Palantir的AML旨在检测另一个围绕加密货币欺诈的问题，该问题与PayPal的反欺诈平台类似。美国国税局最近在其年度报告中透露，今年迄今为止，它从加密货币相关欺诈中查获了35亿美元。Palantir为IRS提供了破译犯罪金融计划并实时分析各种数据源的解决方案。过去，Palantir允许国税局跟踪资金流动或资产流动。例如，如果有人将资产转移到开曼群岛的一家银行，然后在美国提取现金并将其用于购买额外房产等的首付，Palantir的深度数据分析将连接这些孤立的信息，并将其呈现给国税局，以便他们可以相应地处理具体情况。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Palantir's recent launch of Foundry for Crypto, Palantir could already be using its platform to provide real value for the U.S. government. As more information moves online and it becomes more complex to track complex digital assets, Palantir's technology remains one step ahead of trends when it comes to AI. Palantir continuously creates out-of-the-box solutions for the government, it then filters for commercial use cases.</p><p><blockquote>根据Palantir最近推出的Foundry for Crypto，Palantir可能已经在利用其平台为美国政府提供真正的价值。随着越来越多的信息转移到网上，跟踪复杂的数字资产变得更加复杂，Palantir的技术在人工智能方面仍然领先趋势一步。Palantir不断为政府创建开箱即用的解决方案，然后过滤商业用例。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's use the L.A. Valuation Stevens Model to provide an updated fair value, then discuss risks associated with Palantir's entrance into crypto.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们使用洛杉矶估值史蒂文斯模型来提供更新的公允价值，然后讨论与Palantir进入加密货币领域相关的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir continues to land new commercial clients and demonstrate the value of its platform through strong quarterly results. In Q3, Palantir grew its commercial customer count by 46% quarter-over-quarter to over 200 customers. Below are some of Palantir's notable financial metrics.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir继续获得新的商业客户，并通过强劲的季度业绩展示其平台的价值。第三季度，Palantir的商业客户数量环比增长46%，达到200多家。以下是Palantir的一些值得注意的财务指标。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>$1.43B in TTM revenue</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>TTM收入$1.43 B</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>77% gross profit margins</p><p><blockquote><li>77%毛利率</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$120 billion TAM</p><p><blockquote><li>1200亿美元TAM</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Palantir's Fair Value And Expected Return</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的公允价值和预期回报</b></blockquote></p><p> To determine Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了确定Palantir的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们将十年结束时未来增长前景的估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>假设：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1499608f487046f492724343ce6250\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Results:</p><p><blockquote>结果：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cad4b65a88b3612deb98a837e64a5193\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"912\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on conservative estimates, Palantir is worth ~$31 today when accounting for future dilution, hence Palantir is significantly undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>根据保守估计，考虑到未来的稀释，Palantir目前的价值约为31美元，因此Palantir被严重低估。</blockquote></p><p> In order for us to determine if Palantir is worth an investment today, we'll project the expected return for Palantir over the next 10 years at today's price. To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple (35x) to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns beat our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>为了让我们确定Palantir今天是否值得投资，我们将以今天的价格预测Palantir未来10年的预期回报。为了计算未来十年的总预期回报，我们以保守的增长率增长上述每股自由现金流，然后在第十年为其分配保守的价格与自由现金流倍数（35倍）。因此，我们创建了一个保守的内在价值预测（2031年价格目标），通过该预测我们确定了10年的预期CAGR回报。如果这些回报率超过我们15%的门槛率，我们就买入，否则我们等待更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc7e1db2ce3e749cd8088652a7029424\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is expected to generate ~20% annualized returns over the next 10 years, therefore, now is an ideal time to add to a position or start one. Palantir's expected to beat our 15% hurdle rate by a wide margin, hence I rate Palantir a strong buy around $20.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir预计在未来10年内产生约20%的年化回报率，因此，现在是增加头寸或开始建仓的理想时机。Palantir预计将大幅超过我们15%的门槛利率，因此我将Palantir评级为20美元左右的强力买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>There are unforeseen risks given that cryptocurrency is a relatively new technology and there is uncertainty around future regulation.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>鉴于加密货币是一项相对较新的技术，并且未来监管存在不确定性，因此存在不可预见的风险。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> Palantir faces competition from both large incumbent tech companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) as well as startups such as Chainalysis. Palantir needs to offer solutions that generate alpha in digital environments that leverage future technological innovations. Chainalysis is a fintech startup that offers KYC and AML automated transaction monitoring on multiple blockchains, similar to Foundry for Crypto. Chainalysis raised $100 million this summer at a $4.2 billion valuation and operates in over 60 countries. On the other side of the spectrum are the large tech giants such as Amazon, which started offering the Amazon Managed Blockchain service in 2018, which makes it easy to utilize blockchains such as Ethereum.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir面临着来自Amazon（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）等大型现有科技公司以及Chainalysis等初创公司的竞争。Palantir需要提供在利用未来技术创新的数字环境中产生alpha的解决方案。Chainalysis是一家金融科技初创公司，在多个区块链上提供KYC和反洗钱自动交易监控，类似于Foundry for Crypto。Chainalysis今年夏天以42亿美元的估值筹集了1亿美元，业务遍及60多个国家。另一方面是亚马逊等大型科技巨头，该公司于2018年开始提供亚马逊托管区块链服务，这使得利用以太币等区块链变得容易。</blockquote></p><p> The intersection of digital payments resembles a large opportunity as the banks and card networks have incredibly large networks developed at scale. This results in a fintech landscape that is ripe for innovation and it will be increasingly more competitive, as the top 250 fintech unicorns have raised over $73 billion since 2016. Palantir will rely on developing the next wave of AI solutions when it comes to payments, by deploying them for the government to create the core technology and then filtering the solution for the commercial sector.</p><p><blockquote>数字支付的交叉类似于一个巨大的机会，因为银行和信用卡网络已经大规模发展了令人难以置信的大型网络。这使得金融科技领域的创新时机已经成熟，而且竞争将越来越激烈，因为自2016年以来，排名前250位的金融科技独角兽已经筹集了超过730亿美元。Palantir将依靠开发下一波支付领域的人工智能解决方案，为政府部署这些解决方案来创建核心技术，然后为商业部门过滤解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is at the forefront of the digital transformation underway as its platform is the connective tissue for modern organizations to generate insights from many sources of information. In regard to payments and fintech, Palantir has deep roots that link back to the early days of PayPal as Palantir's targeted the large financial institutions since the early 2010s. Palantir continues to expand its platform to apply its deep data insights to information within decentralized finance applications like smart contracts. Palantir's well-positioned to leverage its platform to connect the data from these blockchain applications and with its AI expertise to enable its customers to offer innovative fintech solutions.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir处于正在进行的数字化转型的最前沿，因为其平台是现代组织从许多信息源中生成见解的结缔组织。在支付和金融科技方面，Palantir有着深厚的渊源，可以追溯到PayPal的早期，因为Palantir自2010年代初以来一直瞄准大型金融机构。Palantir继续扩展其平台，将其深入的数据洞察应用于智能合约等去中心化金融应用程序中的信息。Palantir处于有利地位，可以利用其平台连接这些区块链应用程序的数据，并利用其人工智能专业知识，使其客户能够提供创新的金融科技解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> I've been bullish on Palantir over the past year and trading below $20, Palantir represents an attractive price for long-term investors given that Palantir is a generational company and has strong ties to PayPal's early days. I rate Palantir a strong buy at $20.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年我一直看好Palantir，交易价格低于20美元，鉴于Palantir是一家世代公司，并且与PayPal的早期有着密切的联系，Palantir对长期投资者来说是一个有吸引力的价格。我对Palantir的强烈买入评级为20美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Has Now Entered A New Dimension<blockquote>Palantir现已进入新维度</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Has Now Entered A New Dimension<blockquote>Palantir现已进入新维度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 11:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.</li> <li>Palantir now has the opportunity to leverage its platform's connective tissue to track the flow of funds within decentralized finance applications.</li> <li>Palantir's worked with the IRS since 2013 and prior to the release of Foundry, Gotham was deployed for large financial institutions.</li> <li>In today's article, I will highlight Palantir's roots that lead back to PayPal as well as Palantir's opportunity within fintech.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19fbe474b2b948c1dd476507722b776\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Olemedia/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir最近推出了Foundry for Crypto，为金融的未来赋能。</li><li>Palantir现在有机会利用其平台的结缔组织来跟踪去中心化金融应用程序中的资金流。</li><li>Palantir自2013年以来一直与IRS合作，在Foundry发布之前，Gotham是为大型金融机构部署的。</li><li>在今天的文章中，我将重点介绍Palantir可以追溯到PayPal的根源以及Palantir在金融科技领域的机遇。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Olemedia/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to Palantir (PLTR), most investors are excited by its government business as well as its opportunity in the commercial sector with Foundry for Builders. Today, ~60% of Palantir's business stems from the government, while the other portion comes from the commercial sector. Palantir's platform is known for its artificial intelligence (AI) and deep data insights that provide its customers with critical information to help maximize their profits. Palantir's solutions are built around \"mission-driven engineering\" to integrate information from siloed and unstructured data sets. In this article, we'll explore Palantir's roots that go back to the payments industry and PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir(PLTR)，大多数投资者都对其政府业务以及其在商业领域为建筑商铸造的机会感到兴奋。如今，Palantir约60%的业务来自政府，而另一部分来自商业部门。Palantir的平台以其人工智能(AI)和深度数据洞察而闻名，可为客户提供关键信息，帮助他们实现利润最大化。Palantir的解决方案围绕“任务驱动工程”构建，以集成来自孤立和非结构化数据集的信息。在本文中，我们将探讨Palantir的根源，这些根源可以追溯到支付行业和PayPal。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal and Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel approached fellow Palantir co-founder, Stephen Cohen, in 2004 and told him about his idea for Palantir, here's what he envisioned.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal和Palantir联合创始人Peter Thiel于2004年联系了Palantir联合创始人Stephen Cohen，并告诉他他对Palantir的想法，以下是他的设想。</blockquote></p><p> Let's take some of the ideas from the PayPal Anti-Fraud platform and let's try to generalize them to solve the country's counterterrorism problem. And we'll start by selling it directly to the U.S. Government. And while we're at it, let's solve the generalized enterprise information management platforms that are out there. Let's help big enterprises use a Silicon Valley approach to understanding their data.\"-Stephen Cohen, 2013 Five years ago, a quarter of Palantir's business stemmed from the financial sector - while Palantir's connection to the fintech may not be clear on the surface, the company has a significant opportunity to deploy its AI, specifically Foundry, for fintech applications whether that's current banks or fintech companies such as Elementus, a blockchain analytics platform. Palantir currently serves the IRS and the current banking infrastructure as well as future innovative payment technologies such as cryptocurrencies and smart contracts.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从PayPal反欺诈平台中获取一些想法，并尝试将它们概括为解决该国的反恐问题。我们将从直接卖给美国政府开始。同时，让我们来解决现有的通用企业信息管理平台。让我们帮助大企业使用硅谷的方法来理解他们的数据。”—Stephen Cohen，2013五年前，Palantir四分之一的业务来自金融领域—虽然Palantir与金融科技的联系表面上可能并不清楚，但该公司有很大的机会为金融科技应用程序部署其人工智能，特别是Foundry，无论是当前的银行还是区块链分析平台Elementus等金融科技公司。Palantir目前为美国国税局和当前的银行基础设施以及未来的创新支付技术（如加密货币和智能合约）提供服务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Deep Roots In Payments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>深厚的支付根基</b></blockquote></p><p> Much of the Palantir \"DNA\" and culture is replicated from PayPal. Palantir's core technology was also inspired by PayPal, specifically PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. Peter Thiel co-founded PayPal with Max Levchin and would later go on to co-find Palantir along with Nathan Gettings, Palantir's first chief technology officer, who was an engineer at PayPal where he worked closely with Levchin fighting payment fraud. This PayPal Anti-Fraud framework would go on to provide the fundamental building blocks for Palantir's first initiative to fight counterterrorism.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的大部分“DNA”和文化都是从PayPal复制的。Palantir的核心技术也受到了PayPal的启发，特别是PayPal的反欺诈平台。Peter Thiel与Max Levchin共同创立了PayPal，后来与Palantir首任首席技术官Nathan Gettings共同创立了Palantir，后者是PayPal的一名工程师，在那里他与Levchin密切合作打击支付欺诈。这个PayPal反欺诈框架将继续为Palantir的第一个反恐举措提供基本构建模块。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir deploys technology within the government that is similar to what it deploys for large financial institutions. The challenges that financial institutions must overcome are similar to those faced in the government context because there are many data sources and many systems that feed input into the financial service sector as well as the government sector. Palantir uses deep data analytics to identify patterns and trends within this information to help its customers manage risk and execute their plans to better navigate complex environments that are constantly changing.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir在政府内部部署类似于为大型金融机构部署的技术。金融机构必须克服的挑战与政府面临的挑战相似，因为有许多数据源和许多系统向金融服务部门和政府部门提供输入。Palantir使用深度数据分析来识别这些信息中的模式和趋势，以帮助客户管理风险并执行计划，从而更好地应对不断变化的复杂环境。</blockquote></p><p> In 2016, about 25% of Palantir's business came from the financial sector as Palantir deployed its Gotham Platform to investigate fraud for large institutions, as reported in its S1. Palantir works with a lot of banks and replaced legacy technology that's been around for over 30 years. For example, Credit Suisse has used Palantir since 2013 to analyze risks and detect fraud using data from more than a hundred systems across their operations.</p><p><blockquote>据其S1报道，2016年，Palantir约25%的业务来自金融领域，因为Palantir部署了Gotham平台来调查大型机构的欺诈行为。Palantir与许多银行合作，取代了已有30多年历史的遗留技术。例如，瑞士信贷自2013年以来一直使用Palantir，利用其运营中一百多个系统的数据来分析风险和检测欺诈行为。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir seeks to become the central operating system for entire industries rather than just a singular customer and Palantir sees an opportunity to create similar industry-wide partnerships within the financial services industry as it has within the U.S. government and aviation industry. Palantir's consistently winning government contracts while Palantir partnered with Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF) to launch SkyWise in 2017 and now works with over 100 airlines.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir寻求成为整个行业的中央操作系统，而不仅仅是单一客户，Palantir看到了在金融服务行业建立类似于美国政府和航空业的全行业合作伙伴关系的机会。Palantir不断赢得政府合同，而Palantir于2017年与空中客车公司(OTCPK：EADSF)合作推出SkyWise，目前与100多家航空公司合作。</blockquote></p><p> Significant Opportunity At Hand</p><p><blockquote>手头的重大机遇</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On November 23, Palantir launched Foundry for Crypto, which will leverage Foundry's defined data integration to automatically build data pipelines and convert unorganized data into a transparent hub.</p><p><blockquote>11月23日，Palantir推出了Foundry for Crypto，它将利用Foundry定义的数据集成来自动构建数据管道，并将无组织的数据转换为透明的中枢。</blockquote></p><p> Foundry for Crypto will enable Web3 startups to leverage the technology that financial institutions use to fight crime. With the current digital transformation underway and the rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies, Palantir leverages its data expertise to power the next generation of finance software.</p><p><blockquote>Foundry for Crypto将使Web3初创公司能够利用金融机构用来打击犯罪的技术。随着当前数字化转型的进行以及加密货币和区块链技术的兴起，Palantir利用其数据专业知识为下一代财务软件提供支持。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f2a3fb5ad32eff1f464c225cc4b1f1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"621\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Offerings | Crypto</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：产品|Crypto</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As indicated above, Palantir is chain-agnostic, meaning that Palantir works with multiple blockchains. Palantir integrates transaction data as well as smart contract data which will enable Palantir to leverage the core competencies of its AI and data analysis to provide its KYC (Know-Your-Customer) insights. For example, if somebody were to make a transaction using cryptocurrency from a non-custodial wallet, then it'd typically be a challenge to decipher KYC information from that wallet since the blockchain itself is encrypted and decentralized. Palantir traces the assets in a non-custodial wallet and tracks where the assets were transferred from. This allows Palantir to locate the exchange the asset was originally transferred from and then Palantir can track customer data from the crypto exchange where the asset was purchased, like Coinbase.</p><p><blockquote>如上所述，Palantir是链不可知的，这意味着Palantir可以与多个区块链一起工作。Palantir集成了交易数据和智能合约数据，这将使Palantir能够利用其人工智能和数据分析的核心能力来提供KYC（了解您的客户）见解。例如，如果有人要使用非托管钱包中的加密货币进行交易，那么从该钱包中破译KYC信息通常是一个挑战，因为区块链本身是加密和去中心化的。Palantir跟踪非托管钱包中的资产，并跟踪资产的转移地点。这使得Palantir能够找到资产最初转移的交易所，然后Palantir可以跟踪购买资产的加密货币交易所的客户数据，例如Coinbase。</blockquote></p><p> The example above highlights how Palantir digs deep and scrapes the data from the blockchain to learn about a specific individual. This goes a long way in validating secure transactions as Palantir identifies malicious transactions on the blockchain, based on the transaction's location and specific properties. Companies that want to accept cryptocurrencies need secure solutions while they also want to gather insights around their customers to propel their businesses. BNPL companies, like Affirm, which was started by Max Levchin and Nathan Gettings, use advanced risk modeling (also referred to as AI) to offer consumers more fair credit assessments because BNPL companies have access to essential data from both the merchant and the consumer. Palantir could leverage its AI and data insights to help its customers better understand their clientele to offer targeted marketing campaigns or help them identify opportunities that will decrease expenses.</p><p><blockquote>上面的例子强调了Palantir如何深入挖掘并从区块链中抓取数据来了解特定个人。这对于验证安全交易大有帮助，因为Palantir会根据交易的位置和特定属性识别区块链上的恶意交易。希望接受加密货币的公司需要安全的解决方案，同时他们也希望收集客户周围的见解来推动他们的业务。BNPL公司，例如由Max Levchin和Nathan Gettings创立的Affirm，使用高级风险建模（也称为人工智能）为消费者提供更公平的信用评估，因为BNPL公司可以访问来自商家和消费者的重要数据。Palantir可以利用其人工智能和数据洞察来帮助客户更好地了解他们的客户，从而提供有针对性的营销活动或帮助他们发现减少开支的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Foundry for Crypto is still in its early adoption stage as it was recently rolled out and Palantir has multiple opportunities to implement this platform in a variety of industries as payment technology continues to evolve and will reshape the current payments landscape.</p><p><blockquote>Foundry for Crypto仍处于早期采用阶段，因为它是最近推出的，随着支付技术的不断发展，Palantir有多种机会在各个行业实施该平台，并将重塑当前的支付格局。</blockquote></p><p> Smart contracts are another significant opportunity for Palantir. Smart contracts are a set of protocols that are validated and carried out on the flow of data, meaning that once the contract is fulfilled, the data will indicate the contract is satisfied and ensure that the liable party transfers the agreed-upon funds. Palantir has a great opportunity to play a role in the facilitation of data within smart contracts while removing the costs of working with third networks and banks.</p><p><blockquote>智能合约是Palantir的另一个重要机会。智能合约是一组在数据流上验证和执行的协议，这意味着一旦合同履行，数据将表明合同得到满足，并确保责任方转移约定的资金。Palantir有很好的机会在促进智能合同中的数据方面发挥作用，同时消除与第三方网络和银行合作的成本。</blockquote></p><p> One of Palantir's SPAC investments, BlackSky, deploys Foundry and processes real-time satellite imagery to monitor events taking place on Earth. For example, BlackSky can detect if the shipment has been delivered since BlackSky's satellites take images multiple times throughout the day. BlackSky monitors data and information that can only be processed through imagery and is the custodian of monitoring these actions and generating these actions into data points, so that they can inform smart contracts as to whether or not the contract was satisfied. This is a great example of how Palantir's customers may leverage Foundry to process information relating to digital assets and new digital protocols.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的SPAC投资之一BlackSky部署Foundry并处理实时卫星图像以监控地球上发生的事件。例如，BlackSky可以检测货物是否已交付，因为BlackSky的卫星全天多次拍摄图像。BlackSky监控只能通过图像处理的数据和信息，并且是监控这些操作并将这些操作生成数据点的保管人，以便他们可以通知智能合约合同是否得到满足。这是Palantir的客户如何利用Foundry来处理与数字资产和新数字协议相关的信息的一个很好的例子。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Government's Implemented Palantir's \"FinTech\" Solution Since 2013</b></p><p><blockquote><b>政府自2013年起实施Palantir的“金融科技”解决方案</b></blockquote></p><p> The IRS started working with Palantir in 2013 and Palantir continues to land and expand its partnership with the IRS as it's been awarded nearly $20 million from them over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>IRS于2013年开始与Palantir合作，Palantir继续建立并扩大与IRS的合作伙伴关系，在过去12个月中已获得IRS近2000万美元的资助。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e748221a3ed9fc319e2be6ebf40a8e95\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: USAspending.gov</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USAspending.gov</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In May, the IRS launched \"Operation Hidden Gem\", which is an initiative to focus on taxpayers who don't report cryptocurrencies gains. Carolyn Schenck, National Fraud Counsel for the IRS, recently had the following in regards to cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>今年5月，美国国税局发起了“隐藏宝石行动”，这是一项针对不报告加密货币收益的纳税人的举措。美国国税局（IRS）的国家欺诈顾问卡罗琳·申克（Carolyn Schenck）最近就加密货币发表了以下言论。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These transactions are not anonymous, we see you.\" Another issue around crypto fraud, which Palantir's AML is designed to detect, is similar to PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. The IRS recently revealed in its annual report that it seized $3.5 billion so far this year from cryptocurrency-related fraud. Palantir enables the IRS with the solutions that decipher criminal financial schemes and analyzes a variety of data sources in real-time. In the past, Palantir allowed the IRS to track the flow of funds or the flow of assets. For example, if someone were to transfer assets to a bank in the Cayman Islands and then withdraw the cash in the U.S. and use it for a down payment on something like an additional property, Palantir's deep data analysis will connect this information that's siloed, and present it to the IRS so that they can handle the specific situations accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>这些交易不是匿名的，我们看到你了。”Palantir的AML旨在检测另一个围绕加密货币欺诈的问题，该问题与PayPal的反欺诈平台类似。美国国税局最近在其年度报告中透露，今年迄今为止，它从加密货币相关欺诈中查获了35亿美元。Palantir为IRS提供了破译犯罪金融计划并实时分析各种数据源的解决方案。过去，Palantir允许国税局跟踪资金流动或资产流动。例如，如果有人将资产转移到开曼群岛的一家银行，然后在美国提取现金并将其用于购买额外房产等的首付，Palantir的深度数据分析将连接这些孤立的信息，并将其呈现给国税局，以便他们可以相应地处理具体情况。</blockquote></p><p> Based on Palantir's recent launch of Foundry for Crypto, Palantir could already be using its platform to provide real value for the U.S. government. As more information moves online and it becomes more complex to track complex digital assets, Palantir's technology remains one step ahead of trends when it comes to AI. Palantir continuously creates out-of-the-box solutions for the government, it then filters for commercial use cases.</p><p><blockquote>根据Palantir最近推出的Foundry for Crypto，Palantir可能已经在利用其平台为美国政府提供真正的价值。随着越来越多的信息转移到网上，跟踪复杂的数字资产变得更加复杂，Palantir的技术在人工智能方面仍然领先趋势一步。Palantir不断为政府创建开箱即用的解决方案，然后过滤商业用例。</blockquote></p><p> Now, let's use the L.A. Valuation Stevens Model to provide an updated fair value, then discuss risks associated with Palantir's entrance into crypto.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们使用洛杉矶估值史蒂文斯模型来提供更新的公允价值，然后讨论与Palantir进入加密货币领域相关的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir continues to land new commercial clients and demonstrate the value of its platform through strong quarterly results. In Q3, Palantir grew its commercial customer count by 46% quarter-over-quarter to over 200 customers. Below are some of Palantir's notable financial metrics.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir继续获得新的商业客户，并通过强劲的季度业绩展示其平台的价值。第三季度，Palantir的商业客户数量环比增长46%，达到200多家。以下是Palantir的一些值得注意的财务指标。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>$1.43B in TTM revenue</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>TTM收入$1.43 B</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>77% gross profit margins</p><p><blockquote><li>77%毛利率</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>$120 billion TAM</p><p><blockquote><li>1200亿美元TAM</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Palantir's Fair Value And Expected Return</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的公允价值和预期回报</b></blockquote></p><p> To determine Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p><p><blockquote>为了确定Palantir的公允价值，我们将采用我们专有的估值模型。它的含义如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在第一步中，我们使用传统的DCF模型，自由现金流按我们（股东）的资本成本贴现。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p><p><blockquote><li>在步骤2中，模型考虑了已发行股票变化（回购/稀释）的影响。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p><p><blockquote><li>在第三步中，我们将十年结束时未来增长前景的估值正常化。然后，我们使用今天的股价和10年末的预计股价得出CAGR。如果这比市场高出足够的幅度，我们就投资。如果没有，我们等待一个更好的切入点。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Assumptions:</p><p><blockquote>假设：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1499608f487046f492724343ce6250\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Results:</p><p><blockquote>结果：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cad4b65a88b3612deb98a837e64a5193\" tg-width=\"738\" tg-height=\"912\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Based on conservative estimates, Palantir is worth ~$31 today when accounting for future dilution, hence Palantir is significantly undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>根据保守估计，考虑到未来的稀释，Palantir目前的价值约为31美元，因此Palantir被严重低估。</blockquote></p><p> In order for us to determine if Palantir is worth an investment today, we'll project the expected return for Palantir over the next 10 years at today's price. To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple (35x) to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns beat our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>为了让我们确定Palantir今天是否值得投资，我们将以今天的价格预测Palantir未来10年的预期回报。为了计算未来十年的总预期回报，我们以保守的增长率增长上述每股自由现金流，然后在第十年为其分配保守的价格与自由现金流倍数（35倍）。因此，我们创建了一个保守的内在价值预测（2031年价格目标），通过该预测我们确定了10年的预期CAGR回报。如果这些回报率超过我们15%的门槛率，我们就买入，否则我们等待更好的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc7e1db2ce3e749cd8088652a7029424\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：L.A.史蒂文斯估值模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is expected to generate ~20% annualized returns over the next 10 years, therefore, now is an ideal time to add to a position or start one. Palantir's expected to beat our 15% hurdle rate by a wide margin, hence I rate Palantir a strong buy around $20.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir预计在未来10年内产生约20%的年化回报率，因此，现在是增加头寸或开始建仓的理想时机。Palantir预计将大幅超过我们15%的门槛利率，因此我将Palantir评级为20美元左右的强力买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><i>There are unforeseen risks given that cryptocurrency is a relatively new technology and there is uncertainty around future regulation.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>鉴于加密货币是一项相对较新的技术，并且未来监管存在不确定性，因此存在不可预见的风险。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> Palantir faces competition from both large incumbent tech companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) as well as startups such as Chainalysis. Palantir needs to offer solutions that generate alpha in digital environments that leverage future technological innovations. Chainalysis is a fintech startup that offers KYC and AML automated transaction monitoring on multiple blockchains, similar to Foundry for Crypto. Chainalysis raised $100 million this summer at a $4.2 billion valuation and operates in over 60 countries. On the other side of the spectrum are the large tech giants such as Amazon, which started offering the Amazon Managed Blockchain service in 2018, which makes it easy to utilize blockchains such as Ethereum.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir面临着来自Amazon（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）等大型现有科技公司以及Chainalysis等初创公司的竞争。Palantir需要提供在利用未来技术创新的数字环境中产生alpha的解决方案。Chainalysis是一家金融科技初创公司，在多个区块链上提供KYC和反洗钱自动交易监控，类似于Foundry for Crypto。Chainalysis今年夏天以42亿美元的估值筹集了1亿美元，业务遍及60多个国家。另一方面是亚马逊等大型科技巨头，该公司于2018年开始提供亚马逊托管区块链服务，这使得利用以太币等区块链变得容易。</blockquote></p><p> The intersection of digital payments resembles a large opportunity as the banks and card networks have incredibly large networks developed at scale. This results in a fintech landscape that is ripe for innovation and it will be increasingly more competitive, as the top 250 fintech unicorns have raised over $73 billion since 2016. Palantir will rely on developing the next wave of AI solutions when it comes to payments, by deploying them for the government to create the core technology and then filtering the solution for the commercial sector.</p><p><blockquote>数字支付的交叉类似于一个巨大的机会，因为银行和信用卡网络已经大规模发展了令人难以置信的大型网络。这使得金融科技领域的创新时机已经成熟，而且竞争将越来越激烈，因为自2016年以来，排名前250位的金融科技独角兽已经筹集了超过730亿美元。Palantir将依靠开发下一波支付领域的人工智能解决方案，为政府部署这些解决方案来创建核心技术，然后为商业部门过滤解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is at the forefront of the digital transformation underway as its platform is the connective tissue for modern organizations to generate insights from many sources of information. In regard to payments and fintech, Palantir has deep roots that link back to the early days of PayPal as Palantir's targeted the large financial institutions since the early 2010s. Palantir continues to expand its platform to apply its deep data insights to information within decentralized finance applications like smart contracts. Palantir's well-positioned to leverage its platform to connect the data from these blockchain applications and with its AI expertise to enable its customers to offer innovative fintech solutions.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir处于正在进行的数字化转型的最前沿，因为其平台是现代组织从许多信息源中生成见解的结缔组织。在支付和金融科技方面，Palantir有着深厚的渊源，可以追溯到PayPal的早期，因为Palantir自2010年代初以来一直瞄准大型金融机构。Palantir继续扩展其平台，将其深入的数据洞察应用于智能合约等去中心化金融应用程序中的信息。Palantir处于有利地位，可以利用其平台连接这些区块链应用程序的数据，并利用其人工智能专业知识，使其客户能够提供创新的金融科技解决方案。</blockquote></p><p> I've been bullish on Palantir over the past year and trading below $20, Palantir represents an attractive price for long-term investors given that Palantir is a generational company and has strong ties to PayPal's early days. I rate Palantir a strong buy at $20.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年我一直看好Palantir，交易价格低于20美元，鉴于Palantir是一家世代公司，并且与PayPal的早期有着密切的联系，Palantir对长期投资者来说是一个有吸引力的价格。我对Palantir的强烈买入评级为20美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474525-palantir-stock-foundry-for-crypto-fintech-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474525-palantir-stock-foundry-for-crypto-fintech-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163753909","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir recently launched Foundry for Crypto to empower the future of finance.\nPalantir now has the opportunity to leverage its platform's connective tissue to track the flow of funds within decentralized finance applications.\nPalantir's worked with the IRS since 2013 and prior to the release of Foundry, Gotham was deployed for large financial institutions.\nIn today's article, I will highlight Palantir's roots that lead back to PayPal as well as Palantir's opportunity within fintech.\n\nOlemedia/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nWhen it comes to Palantir (PLTR), most investors are excited by its government business as well as its opportunity in the commercial sector with Foundry for Builders. Today, ~60% of Palantir's business stems from the government, while the other portion comes from the commercial sector. Palantir's platform is known for its artificial intelligence (AI) and deep data insights that provide its customers with critical information to help maximize their profits. Palantir's solutions are built around \"mission-driven engineering\" to integrate information from siloed and unstructured data sets. In this article, we'll explore Palantir's roots that go back to the payments industry and PayPal.\nPayPal and Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel approached fellow Palantir co-founder, Stephen Cohen, in 2004 and told him about his idea for Palantir, here's what he envisioned.\n\n Let's take some of the ideas from the PayPal Anti-Fraud platform and let's try to generalize them to solve the country's counterterrorism problem. And we'll start by selling it directly to the U.S. Government.\n\n\n And while we're at it, let's solve the generalized enterprise information management platforms that are out there. Let's help big enterprises use a Silicon Valley approach to understanding their data.\"-Stephen Cohen, 2013\n\nFive years ago, a quarter of Palantir's business stemmed from the financial sector - while Palantir's connection to the fintech may not be clear on the surface, the company has a significant opportunity to deploy its AI, specifically Foundry, for fintech applications whether that's current banks or fintech companies such as Elementus, a blockchain analytics platform. Palantir currently serves the IRS and the current banking infrastructure as well as future innovative payment technologies such as cryptocurrencies and smart contracts.\nDeep Roots In Payments\nMuch of the Palantir \"DNA\" and culture is replicated from PayPal. Palantir's core technology was also inspired by PayPal, specifically PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. Peter Thiel co-founded PayPal with Max Levchin and would later go on to co-find Palantir along with Nathan Gettings, Palantir's first chief technology officer, who was an engineer at PayPal where he worked closely with Levchin fighting payment fraud. This PayPal Anti-Fraud framework would go on to provide the fundamental building blocks for Palantir's first initiative to fight counterterrorism.\nPalantir deploys technology within the government that is similar to what it deploys for large financial institutions. The challenges that financial institutions must overcome are similar to those faced in the government context because there are many data sources and many systems that feed input into the financial service sector as well as the government sector. Palantir uses deep data analytics to identify patterns and trends within this information to help its customers manage risk and execute their plans to better navigate complex environments that are constantly changing.\nIn 2016, about 25% of Palantir's business came from the financial sector as Palantir deployed its Gotham Platform to investigate fraud for large institutions, as reported in its S1. Palantir works with a lot of banks and replaced legacy technology that's been around for over 30 years. For example, Credit Suisse has used Palantir since 2013 to analyze risks and detect fraud using data from more than a hundred systems across their operations.\nPalantir seeks to become the central operating system for entire industries rather than just a singular customer and Palantir sees an opportunity to create similar industry-wide partnerships within the financial services industry as it has within the U.S. government and aviation industry. Palantir's consistently winning government contracts while Palantir partnered with Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF) to launch SkyWise in 2017 and now works with over 100 airlines.\nSignificant Opportunity At Hand\nOn November 23, Palantir launched Foundry for Crypto, which will leverage Foundry's defined data integration to automatically build data pipelines and convert unorganized data into a transparent hub.\nFoundry for Crypto will enable Web3 startups to leverage the technology that financial institutions use to fight crime. With the current digital transformation underway and the rise of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies, Palantir leverages its data expertise to power the next generation of finance software.\nSource: Offerings | Crypto\nAs indicated above, Palantir is chain-agnostic, meaning that Palantir works with multiple blockchains. Palantir integrates transaction data as well as smart contract data which will enable Palantir to leverage the core competencies of its AI and data analysis to provide its KYC (Know-Your-Customer) insights. For example, if somebody were to make a transaction using cryptocurrency from a non-custodial wallet, then it'd typically be a challenge to decipher KYC information from that wallet since the blockchain itself is encrypted and decentralized. Palantir traces the assets in a non-custodial wallet and tracks where the assets were transferred from. This allows Palantir to locate the exchange the asset was originally transferred from and then Palantir can track customer data from the crypto exchange where the asset was purchased, like Coinbase.\nThe example above highlights how Palantir digs deep and scrapes the data from the blockchain to learn about a specific individual. This goes a long way in validating secure transactions as Palantir identifies malicious transactions on the blockchain, based on the transaction's location and specific properties. Companies that want to accept cryptocurrencies need secure solutions while they also want to gather insights around their customers to propel their businesses. BNPL companies, like Affirm, which was started by Max Levchin and Nathan Gettings, use advanced risk modeling (also referred to as AI) to offer consumers more fair credit assessments because BNPL companies have access to essential data from both the merchant and the consumer. Palantir could leverage its AI and data insights to help its customers better understand their clientele to offer targeted marketing campaigns or help them identify opportunities that will decrease expenses.\nFoundry for Crypto is still in its early adoption stage as it was recently rolled out and Palantir has multiple opportunities to implement this platform in a variety of industries as payment technology continues to evolve and will reshape the current payments landscape.\nSmart contracts are another significant opportunity for Palantir. Smart contracts are a set of protocols that are validated and carried out on the flow of data, meaning that once the contract is fulfilled, the data will indicate the contract is satisfied and ensure that the liable party transfers the agreed-upon funds. Palantir has a great opportunity to play a role in the facilitation of data within smart contracts while removing the costs of working with third networks and banks.\nOne of Palantir's SPAC investments, BlackSky, deploys Foundry and processes real-time satellite imagery to monitor events taking place on Earth. For example, BlackSky can detect if the shipment has been delivered since BlackSky's satellites take images multiple times throughout the day. BlackSky monitors data and information that can only be processed through imagery and is the custodian of monitoring these actions and generating these actions into data points, so that they can inform smart contracts as to whether or not the contract was satisfied. This is a great example of how Palantir's customers may leverage Foundry to process information relating to digital assets and new digital protocols.\nThe Government's Implemented Palantir's \"FinTech\" Solution Since 2013\nThe IRS started working with Palantir in 2013 and Palantir continues to land and expand its partnership with the IRS as it's been awarded nearly $20 million from them over the last 12 months.\nSource: USAspending.gov\nIn May, the IRS launched \"Operation Hidden Gem\", which is an initiative to focus on taxpayers who don't report cryptocurrencies gains. Carolyn Schenck, National Fraud Counsel for the IRS, recently had the following in regards to cryptocurrencies.\n\n These transactions are not anonymous, we see you.\"\n\nAnother issue around crypto fraud, which Palantir's AML is designed to detect, is similar to PayPal's Anti-Fraud platform. The IRS recently revealed in its annual report that it seized $3.5 billion so far this year from cryptocurrency-related fraud. Palantir enables the IRS with the solutions that decipher criminal financial schemes and analyzes a variety of data sources in real-time. In the past, Palantir allowed the IRS to track the flow of funds or the flow of assets. For example, if someone were to transfer assets to a bank in the Cayman Islands and then withdraw the cash in the U.S. and use it for a down payment on something like an additional property, Palantir's deep data analysis will connect this information that's siloed, and present it to the IRS so that they can handle the specific situations accordingly.\nBased on Palantir's recent launch of Foundry for Crypto, Palantir could already be using its platform to provide real value for the U.S. government. As more information moves online and it becomes more complex to track complex digital assets, Palantir's technology remains one step ahead of trends when it comes to AI. Palantir continuously creates out-of-the-box solutions for the government, it then filters for commercial use cases.\nNow, let's use the L.A. Valuation Stevens Model to provide an updated fair value, then discuss risks associated with Palantir's entrance into crypto.\nValuation\nPalantir continues to land new commercial clients and demonstrate the value of its platform through strong quarterly results. In Q3, Palantir grew its commercial customer count by 46% quarter-over-quarter to over 200 customers. Below are some of Palantir's notable financial metrics.\n\n$1.43B in TTM revenue\n77% gross profit margins\n$120 billion TAM\n\nPalantir's Fair Value And Expected Return\nTo determine Palantir's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the ten years. Then, we arrive at a CAGR using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nAssumptions:\n\nResults:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nBased on conservative estimates, Palantir is worth ~$31 today when accounting for future dilution, hence Palantir is significantly undervalued.\nIn order for us to determine if Palantir is worth an investment today, we'll project the expected return for Palantir over the next 10 years at today's price. To calculate the total expected return for the next decade, we grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative Price-to-FCF multiple (35x) to it for year ten. Thereby, we create a conservative intrinsic value projection (2031 price target), by which we determine the 10-yr expected CAGR returns. If these returns beat our hurdle rate of 15%, we buy, else we wait for a better buying opportunity.\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nPalantir is expected to generate ~20% annualized returns over the next 10 years, therefore, now is an ideal time to add to a position or start one. Palantir's expected to beat our 15% hurdle rate by a wide margin, hence I rate Palantir a strong buy around $20.\nRisks\n\nThere are unforeseen risks given that cryptocurrency is a relatively new technology and there is uncertainty around future regulation.\n\nPalantir faces competition from both large incumbent tech companies such as Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN) as well as startups such as Chainalysis. Palantir needs to offer solutions that generate alpha in digital environments that leverage future technological innovations. Chainalysis is a fintech startup that offers KYC and AML automated transaction monitoring on multiple blockchains, similar to Foundry for Crypto. Chainalysis raised $100 million this summer at a $4.2 billion valuation and operates in over 60 countries. On the other side of the spectrum are the large tech giants such as Amazon, which started offering the Amazon Managed Blockchain service in 2018, which makes it easy to utilize blockchains such as Ethereum.\nThe intersection of digital payments resembles a large opportunity as the banks and card networks have incredibly large networks developed at scale. This results in a fintech landscape that is ripe for innovation and it will be increasingly more competitive, as the top 250 fintech unicorns have raised over $73 billion since 2016. Palantir will rely on developing the next wave of AI solutions when it comes to payments, by deploying them for the government to create the core technology and then filtering the solution for the commercial sector.\nConclusion\nPalantir is at the forefront of the digital transformation underway as its platform is the connective tissue for modern organizations to generate insights from many sources of information. In regard to payments and fintech, Palantir has deep roots that link back to the early days of PayPal as Palantir's targeted the large financial institutions since the early 2010s. Palantir continues to expand its platform to apply its deep data insights to information within decentralized finance applications like smart contracts. Palantir's well-positioned to leverage its platform to connect the data from these blockchain applications and with its AI expertise to enable its customers to offer innovative fintech solutions.\nI've been bullish on Palantir over the past year and trading below $20, Palantir represents an attractive price for long-term investors given that Palantir is a generational company and has strong ties to PayPal's early days. I rate Palantir a strong buy at $20.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602458124,"gmtCreate":1639060710629,"gmtModify":1639061401350,"author":{"id":"3579932425739623","authorId":"3579932425739623","name":"agoyagi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c802b858e86a9cfcdcb5fd68fc241c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579932425739623","authorIdStr":"3579932425739623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602458124","repostId":"2190661222","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602219137,"gmtCreate":1639024802530,"gmtModify":1639024818177,"author":{"id":"3579932425739623","authorId":"3579932425739623","name":"agoyagi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c802b858e86a9cfcdcb5fd68fc241c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579932425739623","authorIdStr":"3579932425739623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602219137","repostId":"2189695656","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}