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- CLT224CLT224
  ·2021-08-30
  Wrong bet.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,596 评论
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- CLT224CLT224
  ·2021-08-29
  Good prospect.
  Intel: Value Trap Or Buy The Dip?<blockquote>英特尔：价值陷阱还是逢低买入？</blockquote>
  Summary While most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was appare
  Intel: Value Trap Or Buy The Dip?<blockquote>英特尔：价值陷阱还是逢低买入？</blockquote>
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- CLT224CLT224
  ·2021-08-25
  Higher and higher.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,283 评论
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- CLT224CLT224
  ·2021-08-25
  More years.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- CLT224CLT224
  ·2021-08-25
  Consistent.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,120 评论
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- CLT224CLT224
  ·2021-08-25
  Finally. Afghan for afghans.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- CLT224CLT224
  ·2021-08-25
  Wow.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,506 评论
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- CLT224CLT224
  ·2021-08-23
  Yes.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,592 评论
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- CLT224CLT224
  ·2021-08-23
  Great.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,652 评论
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- CLT224CLT224
  ·2021-08-23
  Great.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,379 评论
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bet.","listText":"Wrong bet.","text":"Wrong bet.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811661652","repostId":"1179773136","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813627404,"gmtCreate":1630200234808,"gmtModify":1704956893811,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good prospect.","listText":"Good prospect.","text":"Good prospect.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813627404","repostId":"1190647001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190647001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630069423,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190647001?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 21:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel: Value Trap Or Buy The Dip?<blockquote>英特尔：价值陷阱还是逢低买入？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190647001","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWhile most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was appare","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>While most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was apparently not invited to the party.</li>  <li>During the past six months, Intel is actually down 15%.</li>  <li>The question remains whether or not the stock is a value trap or a coiled spring ready to pop.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65b0d1e3cc9b919c60cd62c91975b386\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nodar Chernishev/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹，但英特尔显然没有被邀请参加派对。</li><li>在过去的六个月里，英特尔实际上下跌了15%。</li><li>问题仍然是该股是一个价值陷阱还是一个随时会弹出的螺旋弹簧。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>诺达尔·切尔尼舍夫/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Just as industrial giants like Ford Motor Co. (F), Caterpillar (CAT), and 3M Co. (MMM) propelled the U.S. (and the world) forward in the early 20th Century with major industrial innovations, the semiconductor manufacturers are driving the technology revolution of the 21st Century.</p><p><blockquote>正如福特汽车公司(F)、卡特彼勒(CAT)和3M公司（3M）等工业巨头在20世纪初通过重大工业创新推动美国（和世界）前进一样，半导体制造商也在推动21世纪的技术革命。</blockquote></p><p> It seems like chips are needed in everything these days,andthe pressure is on to make things faster, smaller, and cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>如今，似乎所有东西都需要芯片，人们面临着让芯片变得更快、更小、更便宜的压力。</blockquote></p><p> That said, while most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year (for good reason),IntelCorp. (INTC) was apparently not invited to the party (or maybe it's just late?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹（有充分的理由），但英特尔公司。（INTC）显然没有被邀请参加聚会（或者可能只是太晚了？）.</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the bifurcation between the winners and the losers in the space has become quite clear over the past 6 months. Chip darlings like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up 52.9% and 24.5%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，在过去的6个月里，该领域的赢家和输家之间的分歧已经变得相当明显。NVIDIA Corp.(NVDA)和Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)等芯片宠儿分别上涨52.9%和24.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Intel is down 14.9% and Micron Technology (MU) is down over 20%!</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，英特尔下跌14.9%，美光科技(MU)下跌超过20%！</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/197282917802a0c939a75f60ec792487\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we have recently penned our thoughts about&nbsp;Micron,NVIDIA, and&nbsp;Advanced Micro Devices, it's time to dig deeper into Intel too.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们最近写下了对美光、NVIDIA和Advanced Micro Devices的想法，但现在也是时候深入挖掘英特尔了。</blockquote></p><p> To be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year,despitegeneral tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，尽管行业普遍有利（即芯片需求远远超过供应），但英特尔今年仍面临着相当多的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays (and loss of some market share). This has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，英特尔有一些有据可查的制造失误，导致了重大延误（并失去了一些市场份额）。这引发了投资者的担忧，即该股现在可能是一个潜在的“价值陷阱”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, I'm definitely in the camp that believes that this industry veteran could still be a coiled spring ready to pop with potential to close the gap with some of the winners (like NVDA and AMD).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我绝对相信这位行业资深人士仍然可能是一个准备好的螺旋弹簧，有潜力缩小与一些赢家（如NVDA和AMD）的差距。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我认为我们还没有接近芯片需求的峰值，我相信英特尔的制造能力在未来几年是（并将继续是）该公司的巨大优势。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of this article will take a quantitative look at Intel to confirm my qualitative assumptions that the stock should be trading higher from here:</p><p><blockquote>本文的其余部分将对英特尔进行定量研究，以证实我的定性假设，即该股应该从这里开始走高：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</li>  <li>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</li>  <li>Upside Target</li>  <li>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</li>  <li>Downside Considerations</li>  <li>Conclusion</li> </ul> <i>Sources for all data and tables below: Option Income Advisor and YCharts</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</li><li>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</li><li>上行目标</li><li>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</li><li>不利因素</li><li>结论</li></ul><i>以下所有数据和表格的来源：Option Income Advisor和YCharts</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel Corp.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔公司。</b></blockquote></p><p>   Sector/Industry: Technology / Semiconductors    Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas.  <i>(Source:</i>  <i>YCharts</i>  <i>)</i>  <b>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</b></p><p><blockquote>部门/行业：科技/半导体英特尔是全球最大的芯片制造商。它为全球个人电脑和数据中心市场设计和制造微处理器。英特尔开创了微处理器x86架构。它是半导体制造进步摩尔定律的主要支持者，尽管该公司最近面临制造延误。虽然英特尔的服务器处理器业务受益于向云的转变，但随着个人电脑市场停滞不前，该公司也一直在向新的领域扩张。其中包括物联网、人工智能和汽车等领域。英特尔在并购方面一直很活跃，收购了Altera、Mobileye和Habana Labs，以加强这些在非PC领域的努力。<i>（来源：</i><i>YCharts</i><i>)</i><b>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我们对股票的高水平长期投资论点本质上更多的是定量而不是定性。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Intel currently ranks very well across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (7), Safety (8), Value (10)</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，英特尔目前在我们的关键长期排名指标中排名非常好：股息(7)、安全性(8)、价值(10)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409ba12610069e477e6973a53eabf653\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>请注意，我们的排名是从1（最低）到10（最高）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>红利</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel has raised its dividend in each of the past seven years and currently yields 2.6% with a reasonably low payout ratio of 29.1%.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在过去七年中每年都提高了股息，目前的收益率为2.6%，派息率相当低，为29.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b59d73a44d9e1f67468b8fdd556e45d\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"347\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year compound annual growth rates of 4.8%, 6.6%, and 7.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司的年度派息一直在稳步增长，1年、5年和10年复合年增长率分别为4.8%、6.6%和7.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Safety</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全</b></blockquote></p><p> Up until 2020, Intel had experienced relatively stable sales and EPS growth. However, manufacturing delays over the past year or so have caused sales and EPS to dip. Management does expect operations to stabilize in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>直到2020年，英特尔的销售额和每股收益增长相对稳定。然而，过去一年左右的生产延迟导致销售额和每股收益下降。管理层确实预计2022年和2023年运营将趋于稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ce38e4effa43f86f74784d75217bf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor / YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Option Income Advisor/YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, the company's balance sheet remains strong with $25 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a solid return on invested capital of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司的资产负债表仍然强劲，拥有250亿美元的现金/短期投资，管理层的投资资本回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's low historical stock volatility, with a five-year standard deviation of 29% and a beta of 0.60, is also adding to its relatively high Safety Ranking.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔的历史股票波动性较低，五年标准差为29%，贝塔值为0.60，这也增加了其相对较高的安全排名。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel currently carries our top rating of 10 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a discount compared to its historical averages across all 4 valuation multiples we look at.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔目前的估值最高评级为10。如下表所示，与我们关注的所有4个估值倍数的历史平均水平相比，该公司的交易价格均有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7036b246d6d8630a59b53041a502b8e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Intel also has a very attractive shareholder yield of 8.3%.<i>Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.</i></p><p><blockquote>英特尔的股东收益率也非常有吸引力，为8.3%。<i>请注意，股东收益率是回购收益率和股息收益率的组合。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长远观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Bullish long-term perspective on Intel. Although sales and EPS are just starting to stabilize from the recent dip, the company's valuation and volatility profile are very attractive.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述数据和我们的各种排名，我们长期看好英特尔。尽管销售额和每股收益刚刚从近期的下跌中开始企稳，但该公司的估值和波动性非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</b></blockquote></p><p> From a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p><p><blockquote>从短期角度来看（特别是当它与出售现金担保看跌期权相关时），估计一个好的“罢工区”是我们分析的关键。我们的打击区考虑了(1)股票的波动性，(2)近期表现（即它已经从近期高点回落了多少），(3)近期每股收益风险，以及(4)整体市场波动性（即VIX水平）。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the table below, our strike zone for Intel currently is $47.00-$51.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，我们目前对英特尔的打击区为47.00美元至51.00美元，相当于所需的最低安全边际5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01b1ac65c7cbccb50edf71635ab87c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Intel ranks positively on a relative basis for stock Volatility/Risk. In addition, the stock has already pulled back over 21% from its recent high (so its Pullback Indicator also ranks positively). Both of these strike zone factors help keep the minimum required margin of safety at a reasonable level of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>正如上面的安全排名分析中所讨论的，英特尔在股票波动性/风险方面的相对排名为正。此外，该股已从近期高点回调超过21%（因此其回调指标也排名为正）。这两个打击区因素都有助于将所需的最低安全裕度保持在5.3%的合理水平。</blockquote></p><p> Also, Intel's next EPS announcement is 58 days out, so we won't have any EPS risk to worry about in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，英特尔的下一次每股收益公告还有58天，因此我们短期内无需担心任何每股收益风险。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the stock's uptrend has been broken with shares trading below both the 50-day moving average (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (red line). That said, we think the stock could have put in a short-term bottom around $52.00 a few days ago and we would look for that level to hold as support.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，该股的上升趋势已被打破，股价均低于50日移动平均线（蓝线）和200日移动平均线（红线）。也就是说，我们认为该股几天前可能会在52.00美元左右触底，我们将寻找该水平作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/322a2276f8f4edb75ed9e614f7a547e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期观点</b></blockquote></p><p> There appears to be some decent technical support around the high end of our strike zone of $47.00-$51.00,whichobviously makes us feel relatively good about holding the stock and potentially selling additional cash-secured puts in the strike zone if we can.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的执行区47.00美元至51.00美元的高端附近似乎有一些不错的技术支撑，这显然让我们对持有股票感觉相对良好，如果可以的话，可能会在执行区出售额外的现金担保看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Upside Considerations (Target Price)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上行考虑（目标价）</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite 26 of the 42 Wall Street analysts having a \"Hold\" rating or lower on the stock, the consensus price target for Intel is still $63.00 (representing over 17% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>尽管42名华尔街分析师中有26名对该股给予“持有”或更低评级，但英特尔的一致目标价仍为63.00美元（较当前水平上涨超过17%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with so many analysts currently at \"Hold\" or below, it opens the door for a flurry of upgrades in the future (which typically come with price target hikes as well). This catalyst could be significant.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于目前有如此多的分析师处于“持有”或以下，这为未来的一系列升级打开了大门（这通常也伴随着价格目标的上调）。这种催化剂可能是重要的。</blockquote></p><p> That said, we also think that there's definitely some room for margin expansion for Intel in the short term as the company's earnings stabilize.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我们也认为，随着公司盈利的稳定，英特尔短期内肯定有一定的利润率扩张空间。</blockquote></p><p> If you put just a 15x multiple on forward earnings of $4.50 per share, that would equate to a $67.50 stock price (representing over 25% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>如果您将每股4.50美元的预期收益仅按15倍计算，则相当于股价为67.50美元（较当前水平上涨超过25%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</b></blockquote></p><p> Although we already own the stock, we think that now is a good time to potentially add to our position and ride the upside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们已经持有该股票，但我们认为现在是增加头寸并利用上涨机会的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> For new investors, we think the stock is really attractive at current levels and would recommend it as a buy.</p><p><blockquote>对于新投资者来说，我们认为该股在当前水平上确实很有吸引力，建议买入。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们主要交易一种收入策略，看涨期权为三重收入轮，首先是对您希望以较低价格持有的优质股票进行现金担保看跌期权。我们不会在这里详细介绍，但下图很好地总结了该策略。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25fe478b0167c759cd88403a036f0f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，当我们出售现金担保看跌期权并开始三重收入轮流程时，我们的看跌期权处于该股票的“执行区”。我们认为，这增加了我们长期成功的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li>  <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>  <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是呈负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Intel. We're focused on the September monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看英特尔的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是将于21年9月17日到期的9月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca238403b1a39eadf67d5459adca855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).<i>Please listen to the video above for further details.</i></p><p><blockquote>我们根据各种风险状况强调了三个级别的交易：激进(-A-)、基础(-B-)和保守(-C-)。<i>更多详情请听上面的视频。</i></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，我们希望坚持基本投资组合的目标水平：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>  <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>  <li>Delta &lt; 30</li> </ul> The INTC Sept 17th $52.00 put option @ ~$0.50 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.3%, a Margin-of-Safety of 3.4%, and a Delta of 26.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>平均月收益率%(AMY%)：1.0%-1.5%</li><li>处于执行区的执行价格（即高于所需最小值的安全边际）</li><li>δ&lt;30</li></ul>INTC 9月17日52.00美元看跌期权@约0.50美元符合我们的所有标准，AMY%为1.3%，安全边际为3.4%，Delta为26。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($52.50 strike) or more conservative ($50.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>同样，根据您的风险承受能力，您可以选择比基础交易更激进（52.50美元执行）或更保守（50.00美元执行）的执行价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Downside Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Assuming we sold the INTC Sept 17th $52.00 strike put option @ $0.50, we would collect $50.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of INTC stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $52.00.</p><p><blockquote>假设我们以0.50美元的价格出售INTC 9月17日52.00美元的执行看跌期权，我们将为出售的每份期权合约收取50.00美元的权利金。作为溢价的回报，我们同意（并且有义务）以52.00美元的执行价为每份出售的合约购买100股INTC股票。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock stays above $52.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $0.50.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票从现在到到期（9/17/21）保持在52.00美元以上，期权到期时一文不值，我们保留0.50美元的权利金。</blockquote></p><p> However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $52.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $52.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $51.50 ($52.00 - $0.50).</p><p><blockquote>然而，<i>如果股票在到期时（9/17/21）收盘价低于52.00美元，则该交易的下行空间就会发挥作用。由于我们有义务以52.00美元的价格购买股票，因此我们将面临潜在的未实现资本损失（取决于股票到期时的收盘价有多低）</i>无论如何，我们都可以保留溢价，因此我们的盈亏平衡成本基础将是51.50美元（52.00美元-0.50美元）。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5%-10% of your cash-secured put trades.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，在管理三重收入轮时，您应该期望接受5%-10%的现金担保看跌交易的转让（购买股票）。</blockquote></p><p> But when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and&nbsp;sell some covered calls on our stock position&nbsp;to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.</p><p><blockquote>但当这种情况发生时，我们可以进入上图中的第3步，出售我们股票头寸上的一些担保评级，以再次开始收入流动并立即开始降低我们的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on Intel, we believe that the stock is a good buy at current levels,butit's even a bigger win if you can add to your Intel position with a cost basis of $51.50 (and sit back and collect the dividend as the stock rises).</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对英特尔的长期和短期看法，我们认为该股在当前水平上值得买入，但如果您能够以51.50美元的成本基础增加您的英特尔头寸，那将是更大的胜利（并坐下来）当股票上涨时领取股息）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel: Value Trap Or Buy The Dip?<blockquote>英特尔：价值陷阱还是逢低买入？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-27 21:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>While most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was apparently not invited to the party.</li>  <li>During the past six months, Intel is actually down 15%.</li>  <li>The question remains whether or not the stock is a value trap or a coiled spring ready to pop.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65b0d1e3cc9b919c60cd62c91975b386\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nodar Chernishev/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹，但英特尔显然没有被邀请参加派对。</li><li>在过去的六个月里，英特尔实际上下跌了15%。</li><li>问题仍然是该股是一个价值陷阱还是一个随时会弹出的螺旋弹簧。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>诺达尔·切尔尼舍夫/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Just as industrial giants like Ford Motor Co. (F), Caterpillar (CAT), and 3M Co. (MMM) propelled the U.S. (and the world) forward in the early 20th Century with major industrial innovations, the semiconductor manufacturers are driving the technology revolution of the 21st Century.</p><p><blockquote>正如福特汽车公司(F)、卡特彼勒(CAT)和3M公司（3M）等工业巨头在20世纪初通过重大工业创新推动美国（和世界）前进一样，半导体制造商也在推动21世纪的技术革命。</blockquote></p><p> It seems like chips are needed in everything these days,andthe pressure is on to make things faster, smaller, and cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>如今，似乎所有东西都需要芯片，人们面临着让芯片变得更快、更小、更便宜的压力。</blockquote></p><p> That said, while most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year (for good reason),IntelCorp. (INTC) was apparently not invited to the party (or maybe it's just late?).</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，虽然大多数半导体股票今年都享受了不错的反弹（有充分的理由），但英特尔公司。（INTC）显然没有被邀请参加聚会（或者可能只是太晚了？）.</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the bifurcation between the winners and the losers in the space has become quite clear over the past 6 months. Chip darlings like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up 52.9% and 24.5%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，在过去的6个月里，该领域的赢家和输家之间的分歧已经变得相当明显。NVIDIA Corp.(NVDA)和Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)等芯片宠儿分别上涨52.9%和24.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Intel is down 14.9% and Micron Technology (MU) is down over 20%!</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，英特尔下跌14.9%，美光科技(MU)下跌超过20%！</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/197282917802a0c939a75f60ec792487\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we have recently penned our thoughts about&nbsp;Micron,NVIDIA, and&nbsp;Advanced Micro Devices, it's time to dig deeper into Intel too.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们最近写下了对美光、NVIDIA和Advanced Micro Devices的想法，但现在也是时候深入挖掘英特尔了。</blockquote></p><p> To be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year,despitegeneral tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，尽管行业普遍有利（即芯片需求远远超过供应），但英特尔今年仍面临着相当多的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays (and loss of some market share). This has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，英特尔有一些有据可查的制造失误，导致了重大延误（并失去了一些市场份额）。这引发了投资者的担忧，即该股现在可能是一个潜在的“价值陷阱”。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, I'm definitely in the camp that believes that this industry veteran could still be a coiled spring ready to pop with potential to close the gap with some of the winners (like NVDA and AMD).</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我绝对相信这位行业资深人士仍然可能是一个准备好的螺旋弹簧，有潜力缩小与一些赢家（如NVDA和AMD）的差距。</blockquote></p><p> Personally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我认为我们还没有接近芯片需求的峰值，我相信英特尔的制造能力在未来几年是（并将继续是）该公司的巨大优势。</blockquote></p><p> The rest of this article will take a quantitative look at Intel to confirm my qualitative assumptions that the stock should be trading higher from here:</p><p><blockquote>本文的其余部分将对英特尔进行定量研究，以证实我的定性假设，即该股应该从这里开始走高：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</li>  <li>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</li>  <li>Upside Target</li>  <li>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</li>  <li>Downside Considerations</li>  <li>Conclusion</li> </ul> <i>Sources for all data and tables below: Option Income Advisor and YCharts</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</li><li>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</li><li>上行目标</li><li>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</li><li>不利因素</li><li>结论</li></ul><i>以下所有数据和表格的来源：Option Income Advisor和YCharts</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Intel Corp.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔公司。</b></blockquote></p><p>   Sector/Industry: Technology / Semiconductors    Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas.  <i>(Source:</i>  <i>YCharts</i>  <i>)</i>  <b>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</b></p><p><blockquote>部门/行业：科技/半导体英特尔是全球最大的芯片制造商。它为全球个人电脑和数据中心市场设计和制造微处理器。英特尔开创了微处理器x86架构。它是半导体制造进步摩尔定律的主要支持者，尽管该公司最近面临制造延误。虽然英特尔的服务器处理器业务受益于向云的转变，但随着个人电脑市场停滞不前，该公司也一直在向新的领域扩张。其中包括物联网、人工智能和汽车等领域。英特尔在并购方面一直很活跃，收购了Altera、Mobileye和Habana Labs，以加强这些在非PC领域的努力。<i>（来源：</i><i>YCharts</i><i>)</i><b>长期论文（股息、安全、价值）</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我们对股票的高水平长期投资论点本质上更多的是定量而不是定性。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Intel currently ranks very well across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (7), Safety (8), Value (10)</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，英特尔目前在我们的关键长期排名指标中排名非常好：股息(7)、安全性(8)、价值(10)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409ba12610069e477e6973a53eabf653\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>请注意，我们的排名是从1（最低）到10（最高）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>红利</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel has raised its dividend in each of the past seven years and currently yields 2.6% with a reasonably low payout ratio of 29.1%.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔在过去七年中每年都提高了股息，目前的收益率为2.6%，派息率相当低，为29.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b59d73a44d9e1f67468b8fdd556e45d\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"347\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year compound annual growth rates of 4.8%, 6.6%, and 7.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司的年度派息一直在稳步增长，1年、5年和10年复合年增长率分别为4.8%、6.6%和7.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Safety</b></p><p><blockquote><b>安全</b></blockquote></p><p> Up until 2020, Intel had experienced relatively stable sales and EPS growth. However, manufacturing delays over the past year or so have caused sales and EPS to dip. Management does expect operations to stabilize in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>直到2020年，英特尔的销售额和每股收益增长相对稳定。然而，过去一年左右的生产延迟导致销售额和每股收益下降。管理层确实预计2022年和2023年运营将趋于稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88ce38e4effa43f86f74784d75217bf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Option Income Advisor / YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Option Income Advisor/YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> That said, the company's balance sheet remains strong with $25 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a solid return on invested capital of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，该公司的资产负债表仍然强劲，拥有250亿美元的现金/短期投资，管理层的投资资本回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's low historical stock volatility, with a five-year standard deviation of 29% and a beta of 0.60, is also adding to its relatively high Safety Ranking.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔的历史股票波动性较低，五年标准差为29%，贝塔值为0.60，这也增加了其相对较高的安全排名。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Intel currently carries our top rating of 10 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a discount compared to its historical averages across all 4 valuation multiples we look at.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔目前的估值最高评级为10。如下表所示，与我们关注的所有4个估值倍数的历史平均水平相比，该公司的交易价格均有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7036b246d6d8630a59b53041a502b8e\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Intel also has a very attractive shareholder yield of 8.3%.<i>Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.</i></p><p><blockquote>英特尔的股东收益率也非常有吸引力，为8.3%。<i>请注意，股东收益率是回购收益率和股息收益率的组合。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Long-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>长远观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Bullish long-term perspective on Intel. Although sales and EPS are just starting to stabilize from the recent dip, the company's valuation and volatility profile are very attractive.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述数据和我们的各种排名，我们长期看好英特尔。尽管销售额和每股收益刚刚从近期的下跌中开始企稳，但该公司的估值和波动性非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期论文（打击区、EPS风险、技术支持）</b></blockquote></p><p> From a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p><p><blockquote>从短期角度来看（特别是当它与出售现金担保看跌期权相关时），估计一个好的“罢工区”是我们分析的关键。我们的打击区考虑了(1)股票的波动性，(2)近期表现（即它已经从近期高点回落了多少），(3)近期每股收益风险，以及(4)整体市场波动性（即VIX水平）。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the table below, our strike zone for Intel currently is $47.00-$51.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，我们目前对英特尔的打击区为47.00美元至51.00美元，相当于所需的最低安全边际5.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c01b1ac65c7cbccb50edf71635ab87c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Intel ranks positively on a relative basis for stock Volatility/Risk. In addition, the stock has already pulled back over 21% from its recent high (so its Pullback Indicator also ranks positively). Both of these strike zone factors help keep the minimum required margin of safety at a reasonable level of 5.3%.</p><p><blockquote>正如上面的安全排名分析中所讨论的，英特尔在股票波动性/风险方面的相对排名为正。此外，该股已从近期高点回调超过21%（因此其回调指标也排名为正）。这两个打击区因素都有助于将所需的最低安全裕度保持在5.3%的合理水平。</blockquote></p><p> Also, Intel's next EPS announcement is 58 days out, so we won't have any EPS risk to worry about in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，英特尔的下一次每股收益公告还有58天，因此我们短期内无需担心任何每股收益风险。</blockquote></p><p> As shown in the chart below, the stock's uptrend has been broken with shares trading below both the 50-day moving average (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (red line). That said, we think the stock could have put in a short-term bottom around $52.00 a few days ago and we would look for that level to hold as support.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，该股的上升趋势已被打破，股价均低于50日移动平均线（蓝线）和200日移动平均线（红线）。也就是说，我们认为该股几天前可能会在52.00美元左右触底，我们将寻找该水平作为支撑。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/322a2276f8f4edb75ed9e614f7a547e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Short-Term View</b></p><p><blockquote><b>短期观点</b></blockquote></p><p> There appears to be some decent technical support around the high end of our strike zone of $47.00-$51.00,whichobviously makes us feel relatively good about holding the stock and potentially selling additional cash-secured puts in the strike zone if we can.</p><p><blockquote>在我们的执行区47.00美元至51.00美元的高端附近似乎有一些不错的技术支撑，这显然让我们对持有股票感觉相对良好，如果可以的话，可能会在执行区出售额外的现金担保看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Upside Considerations (Target Price)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上行考虑（目标价）</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite 26 of the 42 Wall Street analysts having a \"Hold\" rating or lower on the stock, the consensus price target for Intel is still $63.00 (representing over 17% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>尽管42名华尔街分析师中有26名对该股给予“持有”或更低评级，但英特尔的一致目标价仍为63.00美元（较当前水平上涨超过17%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also, with so many analysts currently at \"Hold\" or below, it opens the door for a flurry of upgrades in the future (which typically come with price target hikes as well). This catalyst could be significant.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于目前有如此多的分析师处于“持有”或以下，这为未来的一系列升级打开了大门（这通常也伴随着价格目标的上调）。这种催化剂可能是重要的。</blockquote></p><p> That said, we also think that there's definitely some room for margin expansion for Intel in the short term as the company's earnings stabilize.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我们也认为，随着公司盈利的稳定，英特尔短期内肯定有一定的利润率扩张空间。</blockquote></p><p> If you put just a 15x multiple on forward earnings of $4.50 per share, that would equate to a $67.50 stock price (representing over 25% upside from current levels).</p><p><blockquote>如果您将每股4.50美元的预期收益仅按15倍计算，则相当于股价为67.50美元（较当前水平上涨超过25%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金担保看跌分析（溢价收益率、安全边际、Delta）</b></blockquote></p><p> Although we already own the stock, we think that now is a good time to potentially add to our position and ride the upside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管我们已经持有该股票，但我们认为现在是增加头寸并利用上涨机会的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> For new investors, we think the stock is really attractive at current levels and would recommend it as a buy.</p><p><blockquote>对于新投资者来说，我们认为该股在当前水平上确实很有吸引力，建议买入。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们主要交易一种收入策略，看涨期权为三重收入轮，首先是对您希望以较低价格持有的优质股票进行现金担保看跌期权。我们不会在这里详细介绍，但下图很好地总结了该策略。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25fe478b0167c759cd88403a036f0f0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，当我们出售现金担保看跌期权并开始三重收入轮流程时，我们的看跌期权处于该股票的“执行区”。我们认为，这增加了我们长期成功的机会。</blockquote></p><p> The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p><p><blockquote>在分析现金担保看跌交易时，我们会考虑三个主要数据点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</i></li>  <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>  <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li> </ul> <i>Note that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>溢价收益率%（或平均月收益率%）：假设期权到期时一文不值（价外）的预期资本回报率的衡量标准。<i>假设期权完全以现金抵押。</i></li><li>安全边际%：下行保护的衡量标准或标的股票可能下跌但仍能让您在期权交易中实现收支平衡的百分比。</li><li>Delta：很好地代表看跌期权以价内结束的概率。</li></ul><i>请注意，保费收益率和安全边际之间总是呈负相关：给定执行月份的保费收益率越高，安全边际越低。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>An investor always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>投资者应该始终对自己的风险承受能力诚实。三重收入轮可以根据您的需求进行调整。</i></blockquote></p><p> Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Intel. We're focused on the September monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看英特尔的现金担保看跌期权分析。我们关注的是将于21年9月17日到期的9月份月度合同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fca238403b1a39eadf67d5459adca855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Option Income Advisor)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Option Income Advisor）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).<i>Please listen to the video above for further details.</i></p><p><blockquote>我们根据各种风险状况强调了三个级别的交易：激进(-A-)、基础(-B-)和保守(-C-)。<i>更多详情请听上面的视频。</i></blockquote></p><p> Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p><p><blockquote>理想情况下，我们希望坚持基本投资组合的目标水平：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>  <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>  <li>Delta &lt; 30</li> </ul> The INTC Sept 17th $52.00 put option @ ~$0.50 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.3%, a Margin-of-Safety of 3.4%, and a Delta of 26.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>平均月收益率%(AMY%)：1.0%-1.5%</li><li>处于执行区的执行价格（即高于所需最小值的安全边际）</li><li>δ&lt;30</li></ul>INTC 9月17日52.00美元看跌期权@约0.50美元符合我们的所有标准，AMY%为1.3%，安全边际为3.4%，Delta为26。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($52.50 strike) or more conservative ($50.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>同样，根据您的风险承受能力，您可以选择比基础交易更激进（52.50美元执行）或更保守（50.00美元执行）的执行价格。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Downside Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>不利因素</b></blockquote></p><p> Assuming we sold the INTC Sept 17th $52.00 strike put option @ $0.50, we would collect $50.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of INTC stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $52.00.</p><p><blockquote>假设我们以0.50美元的价格出售INTC 9月17日52.00美元的执行看跌期权，我们将为出售的每份期权合约收取50.00美元的权利金。作为溢价的回报，我们同意（并且有义务）以52.00美元的执行价为每份出售的合约购买100股INTC股票。</blockquote></p><p> If the stock stays above $52.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $0.50.</p><p><blockquote>如果股票从现在到到期（9/17/21）保持在52.00美元以上，期权到期时一文不值，我们保留0.50美元的权利金。</blockquote></p><p> However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $52.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $52.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $51.50 ($52.00 - $0.50).</p><p><blockquote>然而，<i>如果股票在到期时（9/17/21）收盘价低于52.00美元，则该交易的下行空间就会发挥作用。由于我们有义务以52.00美元的价格购买股票，因此我们将面临潜在的未实现资本损失（取决于股票到期时的收盘价有多低）</i>无论如何，我们都可以保留溢价，因此我们的盈亏平衡成本基础将是51.50美元（52.00美元-0.50美元）。</blockquote></p><p> All that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5%-10% of your cash-secured put trades.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，在管理三重收入轮时，您应该期望接受5%-10%的现金担保看跌交易的转让（购买股票）。</blockquote></p><p> But when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and&nbsp;sell some covered calls on our stock position&nbsp;to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.</p><p><blockquote>但当这种情况发生时，我们可以进入上图中的第3步，出售我们股票头寸上的一些担保评级，以再次开始收入流动并立即开始降低我们的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on our long-term and short-term views on Intel, we believe that the stock is a good buy at current levels,butit's even a bigger win if you can add to your Intel position with a cost basis of $51.50 (and sit back and collect the dividend as the stock rises).</p><p><blockquote>根据我们对英特尔的长期和短期看法，我们认为该股在当前水平上值得买入，但如果您能够以51.50美元的成本基础增加您的英特尔头寸，那将是更大的胜利（并坐下来）当股票上涨时领取股息）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452025-intel-value-trap-or-buy-the-dip\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4452025-intel-value-trap-or-buy-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190647001","content_text":"Summary\n\nWhile most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year, Intel was apparently not invited to the party.\nDuring the past six months, Intel is actually down 15%.\nThe question remains whether or not the stock is a value trap or a coiled spring ready to pop.\n\nNodar Chernishev/iStock via Getty Images\nJust as industrial giants like Ford Motor Co. (F), Caterpillar (CAT), and 3M Co. (MMM) propelled the U.S. (and the world) forward in the early 20th Century with major industrial innovations, the semiconductor manufacturers are driving the technology revolution of the 21st Century.\nIt seems like chips are needed in everything these days,andthe pressure is on to make things faster, smaller, and cheaper.\nThat said, while most semiconductor stocks have been enjoying a nice rally this year (for good reason),IntelCorp. (INTC) was apparently not invited to the party (or maybe it's just late?).\nAs shown in the chart below, the bifurcation between the winners and the losers in the space has become quite clear over the past 6 months. Chip darlings like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up 52.9% and 24.5%, respectively.\nMeanwhile, Intel is down 14.9% and Micron Technology (MU) is down over 20%!\nData by YCharts\nWhile we have recently penned our thoughts about Micron,NVIDIA, and Advanced Micro Devices, it's time to dig deeper into Intel too.\nTo be fair, Intel has had its fair share of challenges this year,despitegeneral tailwinds in the industry (i.e., chip demand far outpacing supply).\nSpecifically, Intel has had some well-documented manufacturing blunders that have caused major delays (and loss of some market share). This has triggered concern amongst investors that the stock may be a potential \"value trap\" now.\nAll that said, I'm definitely in the camp that believes that this industry veteran could still be a coiled spring ready to pop with potential to close the gap with some of the winners (like NVDA and AMD).\nPersonally, I don't think we are anywhere near peak demand for chips and I believe that Intel's fabrication capabilities are (and will continue to be) a huge advantage for the company for years to come.\nThe rest of this article will take a quantitative look at Intel to confirm my qualitative assumptions that the stock should be trading higher from here:\n\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nUpside Target\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nDownside Considerations\nConclusion\n\nSources for all data and tables below: Option Income Advisor and YCharts\nIntel Corp.\n\n Sector/Industry: Technology / Semiconductors\n\n\n Intel is the world's largest chipmaker. It designs and manufactures microprocessors for the global personal computer and data center markets. Intel pioneered the x86 architecture for microprocessors. It was the prime proponent of Moore's Law for advances in semiconductor manufacturing, though the firm has recently faced manufacturing delays. While Intel's server processor business has benefited from the shift to the cloud, the firm has also been expanding into new adjacencies as the personal computer market has stagnated. These include areas such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and automotive. Intel has been active on the merger and acquisitions front, acquiring Altera, Mobileye, and Habana Labs in order to bolster these efforts in non-PC arenas.\n (Source:\nYCharts\n)\n\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nIn general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.\nThat said, Intel currently ranks very well across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (7), Safety (8), Value (10)\nNote that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).\nDividend\nIntel has raised its dividend in each of the past seven years and currently yields 2.6% with a reasonably low payout ratio of 29.1%.\n\nIn addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year compound annual growth rates of 4.8%, 6.6%, and 7.7%, respectively.\nSafety\nUp until 2020, Intel had experienced relatively stable sales and EPS growth. However, manufacturing delays over the past year or so have caused sales and EPS to dip. Management does expect operations to stabilize in 2022 and 2023.\nSource: Option Income Advisor / YCharts\nThat said, the company's balance sheet remains strong with $25 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a solid return on invested capital of 16%.\nIntel's low historical stock volatility, with a five-year standard deviation of 29% and a beta of 0.60, is also adding to its relatively high Safety Ranking.\nValuation\nIntel currently carries our top rating of 10 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a discount compared to its historical averages across all 4 valuation multiples we look at.\n\nIntel also has a very attractive shareholder yield of 8.3%.Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.\nLong-Term View\nBased on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Bullish long-term perspective on Intel. Although sales and EPS are just starting to stabilize from the recent dip, the company's valuation and volatility profile are very attractive.\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nFrom a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).\nAs shown in the table below, our strike zone for Intel currently is $47.00-$51.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 5.3%.\n\nAs discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Intel ranks positively on a relative basis for stock Volatility/Risk. In addition, the stock has already pulled back over 21% from its recent high (so its Pullback Indicator also ranks positively). Both of these strike zone factors help keep the minimum required margin of safety at a reasonable level of 5.3%.\nAlso, Intel's next EPS announcement is 58 days out, so we won't have any EPS risk to worry about in the near term.\nAs shown in the chart below, the stock's uptrend has been broken with shares trading below both the 50-day moving average (blue line) and the 200-day moving average (red line). That said, we think the stock could have put in a short-term bottom around $52.00 a few days ago and we would look for that level to hold as support.\n\nShort-Term View\nThere appears to be some decent technical support around the high end of our strike zone of $47.00-$51.00,whichobviously makes us feel relatively good about holding the stock and potentially selling additional cash-secured puts in the strike zone if we can.\nUpside Considerations (Target Price)\nDespite 26 of the 42 Wall Street analysts having a \"Hold\" rating or lower on the stock, the consensus price target for Intel is still $63.00 (representing over 17% upside from current levels).\nAlso, with so many analysts currently at \"Hold\" or below, it opens the door for a flurry of upgrades in the future (which typically come with price target hikes as well). This catalyst could be significant.\nThat said, we also think that there's definitely some room for margin expansion for Intel in the short term as the company's earnings stabilize.\nIf you put just a 15x multiple on forward earnings of $4.50 per share, that would equate to a $67.50 stock price (representing over 25% upside from current levels).\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nAlthough we already own the stock, we think that now is a good time to potentially add to our position and ride the upside.\nFor new investors, we think the stock is really attractive at current levels and would recommend it as a buy.\nWe primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.\n(Source: Option Income Advisor)\nIdeally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nNote that there's always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor always should be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Intel. We're focused on the September monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.\n(Source: Option Income Advisor)\nWe have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).Please listen to the video above for further details.\nIdeally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:\n\nAverage Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%\nStrike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)\nDelta < 30\n\nThe INTC Sept 17th $52.00 put option @ ~$0.50 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.3%, a Margin-of-Safety of 3.4%, and a Delta of 26.\nAgain, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($52.50 strike) or more conservative ($50.00 strike) than the base trade.\nDownside Considerations\nAssuming we sold the INTC Sept 17th $52.00 strike put option @ $0.50, we would collect $50.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of INTC stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $52.00.\nIf the stock stays above $52.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $0.50.\nHowever,the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $52.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $52.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration). We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $51.50 ($52.00 - $0.50).\nAll that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5%-10% of your cash-secured put trades.\nBut when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and sell some covered calls on our stock position to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on Intel, we believe that the stock is a good buy at current levels,butit's even a bigger win if you can add to your Intel position with a cost basis of $51.50 (and sit back and collect the dividend as the stock rises).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837992008,"gmtCreate":1629851343204,"gmtModify":1633681999443,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Higher and higher.","listText":"Higher and higher.","text":"Higher and higher.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837992008","repostId":"1118026600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837999476,"gmtCreate":1629851149095,"gmtModify":1633682003357,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"More years.","listText":"More years.","text":"More years.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837999476","repostId":"1167446644","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837907228,"gmtCreate":1629851046764,"gmtModify":1633682004753,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Consistent.","listText":"Consistent.","text":"Consistent.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837907228","repostId":"2161081224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837901632,"gmtCreate":1629850824926,"gmtModify":1633682009236,"author":{"id":"3580093539764194","authorId":"3580093539764194","name":"CLT224","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580093539764194","idStr":"3580093539764194"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally. 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