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MG8000
MG8000
·
2021-09-05
Nice
AMZN Is The Only FAAMG Stock Off Its Peak. Buy The Dip?<blockquote>AMZN是唯一一只脱离峰值的FAAMG股票。逢低买入?</blockquote>
Within the FAAMG peer group, Amazon stock is the only one off its all-time high. The Amazon Maven di
AMZN Is The Only FAAMG Stock Off Its Peak. Buy The Dip?<blockquote>AMZN是唯一一只脱离峰值的FAAMG股票。逢低买入?</blockquote>
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MG8000
MG8000
·
2021-09-01
Another run coming?
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
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MG8000
MG8000
·
2021-08-30
Nice
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MG8000
MG8000
·
2021-08-27
Cool
Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>
Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,
Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>
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MG8000
MG8000
·
2021-08-22
Cool
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MG8000
MG8000
·
2021-08-20
Nice
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
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MG8000
MG8000
·
2021-08-18
Nice
Apple Sees Delay In Its Shift Away From China Due To COVID-19: Report<blockquote>报告称,由于COVID-19,苹果推迟了从中国的转变</blockquote>
Apple is slowing plans to shift production from China to Vietnam as governments tighten border contr
Apple Sees Delay In Its Shift Away From China Due To COVID-19: Report<blockquote>报告称,由于COVID-19,苹果推迟了从中国的转变</blockquote>
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MG8000
MG8000
·
2021-08-15
Cool
Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后的普拉格能源会在哪里?</blockquote>
Summary Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds. It serves low-ri
Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后的普拉格能源会在哪里?</blockquote>
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MG8000
MG8000
·
2021-08-14
Interesting
Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里?</blockquote>
Summary Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the "d
Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里?</blockquote>
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MG8000
MG8000
·
2021-08-12
Nice
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,"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814692027","repostId":"1151569309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151569309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630676828,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151569309?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 21:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMZN Is The Only FAAMG Stock Off Its Peak. Buy The Dip?<blockquote>AMZN是唯一一只脱离峰值的FAAMG股票。逢低买入?</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151569309","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Within the FAAMG peer group, Amazon stock is the only one off its all-time high. The Amazon Maven di","content":"<p>Within the FAAMG peer group, Amazon stock is the only one off its all-time high. The Amazon Maven discusses the buy-on-dip opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>在FAAMG同行中,亚马逊股票是唯一一只跌破历史高点的股票。亚马逊专家讨论了逢低买入的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Something atypical has been happening in the world of Big Tech lately. As of the end of August 2021, which was only a couple of days ago, Amazon stock (<b>AMZN</b>) was the only FAAMG name trading off its peak – defined here as 1% or more from the all-time high price.</p><p><blockquote>最近,大型科技领域发生了一些非典型的事情。截至2021年8月底,也就是几天前,亚马逊股票(<b>AMZN</b>)是唯一一个交易偏离峰值的FAAMG名称——此处定义为较历史最高价下跌1%或更多。</blockquote></p><p> Could this be a chance for bargain hunters to load up on AMZN? Today, the Amazon Maven talks about the buy-on-dip opportunity in September.</p><p><blockquote>这可能是逢低买入AMZN的机会吗?今天,亚马逊专家谈论9月份的逢低买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon stock: rare laggard</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票:罕见的落后者</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows how often the five FAAMG stocks have traded off their all-time highs, in percentage of total trading days, over the past five years. Nearly half the time (42%), all five of them have been at least 1% away from their historical top at once.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了过去五年中五只FAAMG股票跌破历史高点的频率(占总交易日的百分比)。近一半的时间(42%),这五家公司都同时距离历史最高点至少有1%的差距。</blockquote></p><p> This makes logical sense to me. Tech stock prices tend to be volatile and often “peel off” from their highs, even though shares have generally headed higher over a longer time horizon.</p><p><blockquote>这对我来说是合乎逻辑的。科技股价格往往波动较大,并且经常从高点“剥离”,尽管股价在较长时间内普遍走高。</blockquote></p><p> The least common occurrence has been for only one FAAMG stock to be in the hole, while all others hover near peaks. This has happened, on average, only 1 out of every 12 to 13 trading sessions (i.e. one day per two or three weeks). This is exactly what was happening to Amazon stock at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>最不常见的情况是只有一只FAAMG股票陷入困境,而所有其他股票都徘徊在峰值附近。平均而言,每12到13个交易日中只有1个会发生这种情况(即每两到三周一天)。这正是8月底亚马逊股票的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, this makes intuitive sense. Roughly speaking, FAAMG stocks behave similarly to the macroeconomic and broad market forces. Healthy consumer spending, economic growth, market enthusiasm and low interest rates are all bullish factors across the entire peer group.</p><p><blockquote>同样,这具有直观的意义。粗略地说,FAAMG股票的表现与宏观经济和广泛的市场力量类似。健康的消费者支出、经济增长、市场热情和低利率都是整个同行群体的看涨因素。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a09638bca8fb5d57bada216196f071c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: Number of FAAMG stocks off peak. data from Yahoo Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2:非高峰时期的FAAMG股票数量。数据来自雅虎财经</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <h3>Buy-the-dip opportunity</h3> In my view, Amazon’s loser status within the peer group (measured in this case by drawdowns) is still reminiscent of the company’sill-received third quarter earnings report. Back in July, the Seattle-based giant burst analysts’ and investors’ bubble, delivering e-commerce revenues that lagged consensus.</p><p><blockquote><h3>逢低买入机会</h3>在我看来,亚马逊在同行中的失败者地位(在本例中通过提款来衡量)仍然让人想起该公司刚刚收到的第三季度收益报告。早在7月份,这家总部位于西雅图的巨头就打破了分析师和投资者的泡沫,其电子商务收入落后于共识。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is not out of the doghouse yet. While COVID-19 fears have lingered, fueling some hopes that the digital retail channel will still perform well in the second half of 2021, the global economies should gradually (and hopefully) reopen and return to “a new normal” over the next 12 months. Therefore, e-commerce headwinds in the foreseeable future are certainly not out of question.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊还没有走出困境。尽管对新冠肺炎的担忧挥之不去,引发了一些人对数字零售渠道在2021年下半年仍将表现良好的希望,但全球经济应该会在未来12个月内逐渐(并有望)重新开放并恢复到“新常态”。因此,在可预见的未来,电子商务的逆风当然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> However,history has shown time and again that buying Amazon stock on pullbacks is a good strategy. While the current drawdown of only 5% to 10% may not seem like much,I believe that reasonable valuation shelp to set up AMZN for higher-than-peer group returns over the next several months.</p><p><blockquote>然而,历史一再表明,在回调时购买亚马逊股票是一个很好的策略。虽然目前仅5%至10%的回撤似乎并不多,但我相信合理的估值有助于AMZN在未来几个月获得高于同行的集团回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMZN Is The Only FAAMG Stock Off Its Peak. Buy The Dip?<blockquote>AMZN是唯一一只脱离峰值的FAAMG股票。逢低买入?</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMZN Is The Only FAAMG Stock Off Its Peak. Buy The Dip?<blockquote>AMZN是唯一一只脱离峰值的FAAMG股票。逢低买入?</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 21:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Within the FAAMG peer group, Amazon stock is the only one off its all-time high. The Amazon Maven discusses the buy-on-dip opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>在FAAMG同行中,亚马逊股票是唯一一只跌破历史高点的股票。亚马逊专家讨论了逢低买入的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Something atypical has been happening in the world of Big Tech lately. As of the end of August 2021, which was only a couple of days ago, Amazon stock (<b>AMZN</b>) was the only FAAMG name trading off its peak – defined here as 1% or more from the all-time high price.</p><p><blockquote>最近,大型科技领域发生了一些非典型的事情。截至2021年8月底,也就是几天前,亚马逊股票(<b>AMZN</b>)是唯一一个交易偏离峰值的FAAMG名称——此处定义为较历史最高价下跌1%或更多。</blockquote></p><p> Could this be a chance for bargain hunters to load up on AMZN? Today, the Amazon Maven talks about the buy-on-dip opportunity in September.</p><p><blockquote>这可能是逢低买入AMZN的机会吗?今天,亚马逊专家谈论9月份的逢低买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Amazon stock: rare laggard</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊股票:罕见的落后者</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows how often the five FAAMG stocks have traded off their all-time highs, in percentage of total trading days, over the past five years. Nearly half the time (42%), all five of them have been at least 1% away from their historical top at once.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了过去五年中五只FAAMG股票跌破历史高点的频率(占总交易日的百分比)。近一半的时间(42%),这五家公司都同时距离历史最高点至少有1%的差距。</blockquote></p><p> This makes logical sense to me. Tech stock prices tend to be volatile and often “peel off” from their highs, even though shares have generally headed higher over a longer time horizon.</p><p><blockquote>这对我来说是合乎逻辑的。科技股价格往往波动较大,并且经常从高点“剥离”,尽管股价在较长时间内普遍走高。</blockquote></p><p> The least common occurrence has been for only one FAAMG stock to be in the hole, while all others hover near peaks. This has happened, on average, only 1 out of every 12 to 13 trading sessions (i.e. one day per two or three weeks). This is exactly what was happening to Amazon stock at the end of August.</p><p><blockquote>最不常见的情况是只有一只FAAMG股票陷入困境,而所有其他股票都徘徊在峰值附近。平均而言,每12到13个交易日中只有1个会发生这种情况(即每两到三周一天)。这正是8月底亚马逊股票的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Once again, this makes intuitive sense. Roughly speaking, FAAMG stocks behave similarly to the macroeconomic and broad market forces. Healthy consumer spending, economic growth, market enthusiasm and low interest rates are all bullish factors across the entire peer group.</p><p><blockquote>同样,这具有直观的意义。粗略地说,FAAMG股票的表现与宏观经济和广泛的市场力量类似。健康的消费者支出、经济增长、市场热情和低利率都是整个同行群体的看涨因素。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a09638bca8fb5d57bada216196f071c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: Number of FAAMG stocks off peak. data from Yahoo Finance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2:非高峰时期的FAAMG股票数量。数据来自雅虎财经</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <h3>Buy-the-dip opportunity</h3> In my view, Amazon’s loser status within the peer group (measured in this case by drawdowns) is still reminiscent of the company’sill-received third quarter earnings report. Back in July, the Seattle-based giant burst analysts’ and investors’ bubble, delivering e-commerce revenues that lagged consensus.</p><p><blockquote><h3>逢低买入机会</h3>在我看来,亚马逊在同行中的失败者地位(在本例中通过提款来衡量)仍然让人想起该公司刚刚收到的第三季度收益报告。早在7月份,这家总部位于西雅图的巨头就打破了分析师和投资者的泡沫,其电子商务收入落后于共识。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is not out of the doghouse yet. While COVID-19 fears have lingered, fueling some hopes that the digital retail channel will still perform well in the second half of 2021, the global economies should gradually (and hopefully) reopen and return to “a new normal” over the next 12 months. Therefore, e-commerce headwinds in the foreseeable future are certainly not out of question.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊还没有走出困境。尽管对新冠肺炎的担忧挥之不去,引发了一些人对数字零售渠道在2021年下半年仍将表现良好的希望,但全球经济应该会在未来12个月内逐渐(并有望)重新开放并恢复到“新常态”。因此,在可预见的未来,电子商务的逆风当然不是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> However,history has shown time and again that buying Amazon stock on pullbacks is a good strategy. While the current drawdown of only 5% to 10% may not seem like much,I believe that reasonable valuation shelp to set up AMZN for higher-than-peer group returns over the next several months.</p><p><blockquote>然而,历史一再表明,在回调时购买亚马逊股票是一个很好的策略。虽然目前仅5%至10%的回撤似乎并不多,但我相信合理的估值有助于AMZN在未来几个月获得高于同行的集团回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/amzn-is-the-only-faamg-stock-off-its-peak-buy-the-dip\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/amzn-is-the-only-faamg-stock-off-its-peak-buy-the-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151569309","content_text":"Within the FAAMG peer group, Amazon stock is the only one off its all-time high. The Amazon Maven discusses the buy-on-dip opportunity.\nSomething atypical has been happening in the world of Big Tech lately. As of the end of August 2021, which was only a couple of days ago, Amazon stock (AMZN) was the only FAAMG name trading off its peak – defined here as 1% or more from the all-time high price.\nCould this be a chance for bargain hunters to load up on AMZN? Today, the Amazon Maven talks about the buy-on-dip opportunity in September.\nAmazon stock: rare laggard\nThe chart below shows how often the five FAAMG stocks have traded off their all-time highs, in percentage of total trading days, over the past five years. Nearly half the time (42%), all five of them have been at least 1% away from their historical top at once.\nThis makes logical sense to me. Tech stock prices tend to be volatile and often “peel off” from their highs, even though shares have generally headed higher over a longer time horizon.\nThe least common occurrence has been for only one FAAMG stock to be in the hole, while all others hover near peaks. This has happened, on average, only 1 out of every 12 to 13 trading sessions (i.e. one day per two or three weeks). This is exactly what was happening to Amazon stock at the end of August.\nOnce again, this makes intuitive sense. Roughly speaking, FAAMG stocks behave similarly to the macroeconomic and broad market forces. Healthy consumer spending, economic growth, market enthusiasm and low interest rates are all bullish factors across the entire peer group.\nFigure 2: Number of FAAMG stocks off peak. data from Yahoo Finance\nBuy-the-dip opportunity\nIn my view, Amazon’s loser status within the peer group (measured in this case by drawdowns) is still reminiscent of the company’sill-received third quarter earnings report. Back in July, the Seattle-based giant burst analysts’ and investors’ bubble, delivering e-commerce revenues that lagged consensus.\nAmazon is not out of the doghouse yet. While COVID-19 fears have lingered, fueling some hopes that the digital retail channel will still perform well in the second half of 2021, the global economies should gradually (and hopefully) reopen and return to “a new normal” over the next 12 months. Therefore, e-commerce headwinds in the foreseeable future are certainly not out of question.\nHowever,history has shown time and again that buying Amazon stock on pullbacks is a good strategy. While the current drawdown of only 5% to 10% may not seem like much,I believe that reasonable valuation shelp to set up AMZN for higher-than-peer group returns over the next several months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816494104,"gmtCreate":1630511551708,"gmtModify":1632475255210,"author":{"id":"3582015941678991","authorId":"3582015941678991","name":"MG8000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae04462881ae84bc3e097956d467e328","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582015941678991","idStr":"3582015941678991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another run coming?","listText":"Another run coming?","text":"Another run coming?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816494104","repostId":"2164897643","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811467754,"gmtCreate":1630337633878,"gmtModify":1704958785457,"author":{"id":"3582015941678991","authorId":"3582015941678991","name":"MG8000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae04462881ae84bc3e097956d467e328","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582015941678991","idStr":"3582015941678991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811467754","repostId":"1182034389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819526360,"gmtCreate":1630078870950,"gmtModify":1704955713725,"author":{"id":"3582015941678991","authorId":"3582015941678991","name":"MG8000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae04462881ae84bc3e097956d467e328","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582015941678991","idStr":"3582015941678991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819526360","repostId":"1199074003","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199074003","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630077382,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199074003?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199074003","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,","content":"<p>Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase and Paypal climbed between 1% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在早盘交易中飙升。Bit Digital、Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain、SoS Ltd、Square、Coinbase和Paypal股价上涨1%至13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67735af69f95f6a88ee67ae3737e58c0\" tg-width=\"364\" tg-height=\"715\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-27 23:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase and Paypal climbed between 1% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在早盘交易中飙升。Bit Digital、Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain、SoS Ltd、Square、Coinbase和Paypal股价上涨1%至13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67735af69f95f6a88ee67ae3737e58c0\" tg-width=\"364\" tg-height=\"715\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MARA":"MARA Holdings","NCTY":"第九城市","EBON":"亿邦国际","CAN":"嘉楠科技","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","SOS":"SOS Limited","RIOT":"Riot Platforms"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199074003","content_text":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase and Paypal climbed between 1% and 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9,"BTCM":0.9,"MARA":0.9,"NCTY":0.9,"RIOT":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"SOS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832216558,"gmtCreate":1629637921574,"gmtModify":1633683639933,"author":{"id":"3582015941678991","authorId":"3582015941678991","name":"MG8000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae04462881ae84bc3e097956d467e328","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582015941678991","idStr":"3582015941678991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832216558","repostId":"1133515985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836633794,"gmtCreate":1629474209718,"gmtModify":1633684560410,"author":{"id":"3582015941678991","authorId":"3582015941678991","name":"MG8000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae04462881ae84bc3e097956d467e328","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582015941678991","idStr":"3582015941678991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836633794","repostId":"1104380958","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831963052,"gmtCreate":1629280378476,"gmtModify":1633686018574,"author":{"id":"3582015941678991","authorId":"3582015941678991","name":"MG8000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae04462881ae84bc3e097956d467e328","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582015941678991","idStr":"3582015941678991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice ","listText":"Nice ","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831963052","repostId":"1160063301","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160063301","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1629279635,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160063301?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 17:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Sees Delay In Its Shift Away From China Due To COVID-19: Report<blockquote>报告称,由于COVID-19,苹果推迟了从中国的转变</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160063301","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple is slowing plans to shift production from China to Vietnam as governments tighten border contr","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b> is slowing plans to shift production from <b>China</b> to <b>Vietnam</b> as governments tighten border controls to contain outbreaks of new variants of the coronavirus, Nikkei Asiareportedon Tuesday, citing sources.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b>正在放缓将生产转移到<b>中国</b>到<b>越南</b>据《日经亚洲》周二援引消息人士的话报道,随着各国政府加强边境管制以遏制冠状病毒新变种的爆发。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b> The Cupertino, California-based tech giant plans to start mass production of its latest <b>AirPods</b> earphones in China instead of Vietnam as previously planned.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么:</b>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的科技巨头计划开始大规模生产其最新的<b>AirPods</b>耳机在中国而不是之前计划的越南。</blockquote></p><p> Apple reportedly still aims to move around 20% of new AirPods production to Vietnam at some point in the future.</p><p><blockquote>据报道,苹果仍计划在未来某个时候将大约20%的新AirPods生产转移到越南。</blockquote></p><p> AirPods were among the first products that Apple began making in significant amounts in Vietnam after moving production there about two years ago during the peak of U.S.-China trade tensions.</p><p><blockquote>AirPods是苹果在大约两年前中美贸易紧张局势最严重的时候将生产转移到越南后开始在越南大量生产的首批产品之一。</blockquote></p><p> The <b>Tim Cook</b>-led company's plan to bring some <b>MacBook</b> and <b>iPad</b> production to Vietnam has also been put on hold.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>蒂姆·库克</b>-led公司计划带来一些<b>MacBook</b>和<b>iPad</b>对越南的生产也被搁置。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is not alone, as other tech biggies such as Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a> are facing similar delays, the Nikkei noted.</p><p><blockquote>苹果并不孤单,谷歌母公司等其他科技巨头也是如此<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>《日经新闻》指出,也面临着类似的延误。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters:</b> Vietnam’s young labor force made it an ideal draw for U.S. based tech manufacturers, especially when Washington began imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese-made goods in 2018. Suppliers of Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell Technologies Inc.</a> have already set up or expanded factories in the country over the past few years.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么重要:</b>越南年轻的劳动力使其成为美国科技制造商的理想吸引力,尤其是当华盛顿在2018年开始对中国制造的商品征收惩罚性关税时。苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、微软和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔技术公司。</a>在过去的几年里,已经在该国建立或扩大了工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Both China and Vietnam have adopted stricter border control measures this year, which has slowed the production shift between the two countries due to COVID-19 resurgence and government measures.</p><p><blockquote>中国和越南今年都采取了更严格的边境管制措施,由于COVID-19死灰复燃和政府措施,这减缓了两国之间的生产转移。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b> Apple shares closed 0.62% lower at $150.19 on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势:</b>苹果股价周二收盘下跌0.62%,至150.19美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Sees Delay In Its Shift Away From China Due To COVID-19: Report<blockquote>报告称,由于COVID-19,苹果推迟了从中国的转变</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Sees Delay In Its Shift Away From China Due To COVID-19: Report<blockquote>报告称,由于COVID-19,苹果推迟了从中国的转变</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-18 17:40</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a></b> is slowing plans to shift production from <b>China</b> to <b>Vietnam</b> as governments tighten border controls to contain outbreaks of new variants of the coronavirus, Nikkei Asiareportedon Tuesday, citing sources.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a></b>正在放缓将生产转移到<b>中国</b>到<b>越南</b>据《日经亚洲》周二援引消息人士的话报道,随着各国政府加强边境管制以遏制冠状病毒新变种的爆发。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened:</b> The Cupertino, California-based tech giant plans to start mass production of its latest <b>AirPods</b> earphones in China instead of Vietnam as previously planned.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么:</b>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的科技巨头计划开始大规模生产其最新的<b>AirPods</b>耳机在中国而不是之前计划的越南。</blockquote></p><p> Apple reportedly still aims to move around 20% of new AirPods production to Vietnam at some point in the future.</p><p><blockquote>据报道,苹果仍计划在未来某个时候将大约20%的新AirPods生产转移到越南。</blockquote></p><p> AirPods were among the first products that Apple began making in significant amounts in Vietnam after moving production there about two years ago during the peak of U.S.-China trade tensions.</p><p><blockquote>AirPods是苹果在大约两年前中美贸易紧张局势最严重的时候将生产转移到越南后开始在越南大量生产的首批产品之一。</blockquote></p><p> The <b>Tim Cook</b>-led company's plan to bring some <b>MacBook</b> and <b>iPad</b> production to Vietnam has also been put on hold.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>蒂姆·库克</b>-led公司计划带来一些<b>MacBook</b>和<b>iPad</b>对越南的生产也被搁置。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is not alone, as other tech biggies such as Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a> are facing similar delays, the Nikkei noted.</p><p><blockquote>苹果并不孤单,谷歌母公司等其他科技巨头也是如此<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>《日经新闻》指出,也面临着类似的延误。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters:</b> Vietnam’s young labor force made it an ideal draw for U.S. based tech manufacturers, especially when Washington began imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese-made goods in 2018. Suppliers of Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell Technologies Inc.</a> have already set up or expanded factories in the country over the past few years.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么重要:</b>越南年轻的劳动力使其成为美国科技制造商的理想吸引力,尤其是当华盛顿在2018年开始对中国制造的商品征收惩罚性关税时。苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、微软和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔技术公司。</a>在过去的几年里,已经在该国建立或扩大了工厂。</blockquote></p><p> Both China and Vietnam have adopted stricter border control measures this year, which has slowed the production shift between the two countries due to COVID-19 resurgence and government measures.</p><p><blockquote>中国和越南今年都采取了更严格的边境管制措施,由于COVID-19死灰复燃和政府措施,这减缓了两国之间的生产转移。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action:</b> Apple shares closed 0.62% lower at $150.19 on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格走势:</b>苹果股价周二收盘下跌0.62%,至150.19美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160063301","content_text":"Apple is slowing plans to shift production from China to Vietnam as governments tighten border controls to contain outbreaks of new variants of the coronavirus, Nikkei Asiareportedon Tuesday, citing sources.\nWhat Happened: The Cupertino, California-based tech giant plans to start mass production of its latest AirPods earphones in China instead of Vietnam as previously planned.\nApple reportedly still aims to move around 20% of new AirPods production to Vietnam at some point in the future.\nAirPods were among the first products that Apple began making in significant amounts in Vietnam after moving production there about two years ago during the peak of U.S.-China trade tensions.\nThe Tim Cook-led company's plan to bring some MacBook and iPad production to Vietnam has also been put on hold.\nApple is not alone, as other tech biggies such as Google parent Alphabet and Amazon.com are facing similar delays, the Nikkei noted.\nWhy It Matters: Vietnam’s young labor force made it an ideal draw for U.S. based tech manufacturers, especially when Washington began imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese-made goods in 2018. Suppliers of Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Dell Technologies Inc. have already set up or expanded factories in the country over the past few years.\nBoth China and Vietnam have adopted stricter border control measures this year, which has slowed the production shift between the two countries due to COVID-19 resurgence and government measures.\nPrice Action: Apple shares closed 0.62% lower at $150.19 on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830022082,"gmtCreate":1628994905046,"gmtModify":1633688100889,"author":{"id":"3582015941678991","authorId":"3582015941678991","name":"MG8000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae04462881ae84bc3e097956d467e328","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582015941678991","idStr":"3582015941678991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830022082","repostId":"1133270372","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133270372","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628988501,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133270372?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后的普拉格能源会在哪里?</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133270372","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-ri","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.</li> <li>It serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.</li> <li>Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa1aea5535d99338f385c168062b218\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普拉格能源活跃在一个具有巨大增长动力的有吸引力的行业中。</li><li>它服务于低风险客户,在行业中拥有强大的地位。</li><li>股价反映了未来的大量增长,投资者在以当前估值配置资金之前应该考虑实际每股回报可能是什么样子。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司(PLUG)活跃于高增长行业,只要公司能够实现其目标并且管理层执行良好,这就意味着强劲的长期业务增长前景。然而,该公司尚未盈利,实现有意义的净利润的道路仍然存在一些不确定性。从更长远的角度来看,我们可以预计普拉格能源将产生正的净利润,尽管该公司目前的估值相对较高。不过,从风险回报的角度来看,可能有更好的选择,尽管我相信2031年股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:</p><p><blockquote>去年,普拉格能源公司的股价剧烈上下波动:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940297249151eddcccf6440d20ef031\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.</p><p><blockquote>股价比12个月前上涨了130%,但与此同时,股价仅为今天历史高点的三分之一。2021年初,其他可再生能源/新能源及相关股票(包括电动汽车)受益于投资者的巨大热情,股价大幅上涨。此后,热情似乎有所降温,股价又回到了20多美元。按目前价格计算,普拉格能源公司的估值为160亿美元,稀释后的股票数量略低于6亿股。分析师目前非常看好该股,因为41美元的一致目标价意味着明年较当前价格有50%左右的上涨潜力。但值得注意的是,近几个月来分析师一致的目标价已被下调,并且未来可能会继续下调。由于不存在利润,PLUG无法以盈利为基础进行估值,但股价约为今年收入的30倍,这相当昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Prediction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司活跃在一个绝对增长的行业,因为氢燃料电池将在未来几年看到巨大的需求增长,因为它们允许作为其他燃料的环保替代品。普拉格能源作为该技术市场领先地位的交钥匙供应商,完全有能力利用这一大趋势。通过包括Brookfield Renewable Partners(BEP)在内的全球合作伙伴网络,普拉格能源正在致力于在全球范围内发展绿色氢产业:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a8e3b57882e429c9eace431bd1f541\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Plug Power presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:普拉格能源演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源的绿色氢可用于为卡车、公共汽车和其他车辆提供动力,同时该公司还为公用事业公司使用的兆瓦级柴油发电机提供环保替代品。除此之外,该公司还致力于其他尚未准备好商业化的项目,例如用氢气为飞机提供动力。2024年,即三年后,普拉格能源将在美国运营至少5座氢气厂,美国以及欧洲等海外市场正在建设更多项目。</blockquote></p><p> 80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源80%的客户是该公司的评级蓝筹客户,其中包括亚马逊(AMZN)等公司。这些公司通常非常倾向于改善其二氧化碳足迹,以获得更好的ESG评级,同时,这些公司是低风险客户,因为其强劲的资产负债表和现金流意味着流动性或偿付能力问题的风险可以忽略不计。总体而言,普拉格能源因此与有吸引力的同行合作,他们的财务火力意味着普拉格能源不会被迫以便宜的价格出售其产品,这就是为什么该公司最近几个季度能够产生相对有吸引力的产品毛利率在30年代。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.</p><p><blockquote>然而,由于公司规模仍然相对较小,普拉格能源在净利润或运营基础上均未盈利。相对于普拉格能源产生的收入,该公司的运营费用目前仍然过高。然而,这种情况应该会随着时间的推移而改变,因为运营杠杆和产品利润率的提高应该会使普拉格能源的毛利润相对于运营费用增长,从而提高盈利能力。分析师目前预测2024财年(即三年后)净利润为正。当然,如果普拉格能源已经达到了这一点,那就更好了,但对于长期投资者来说,再有两年的负利润并不是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> When investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:</p><p><blockquote>在投资普拉格能源这样的公司时,短期并不太重要,但更重要的是公司收入和利润增长的长期潜力。通过ESG顺风、大规模市场增长及其市场领导地位的结合,普拉格能源似乎处于有利地位,可以在未来许多年增加收入:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6f0576ba51f219d85b18d90ccaf6f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测,未来三年收入将以每年50%以上的速度增长,而至少到2030年,增长率预计将保持近30%,这相当于极具吸引力的长期增长前景。当然,不能保证这种情况确实会发生,因为商业模式的一些风险仍然存在。该公司尚未盈利,因此未来增长项目的资金理论上可能会成为一个问题。最重要的是,其他财力雄厚的参与者可能会试图扰乱市场或获得市场份额。我相信,由于普拉格能源的领导地位,这种风险并不是很大。但如果市场竞争变得更加激烈,非盈利的普拉格能源如果遭遇市场份额争夺战,可能会给利润率带来压力,可能会遇到问题。</blockquote></p><p> Some execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.</p><p><blockquote>因此,一些执行风险确实仍然存在,投资者不应将上述增长预测视为绝对可靠的清晰预测。然而,相反,上述预测展示了基本情况可能是什么样子,实际结果可能比这更好或更差。总体而言,可以说普拉格能源业务的长期前景非常好,因为随着投资者、公司和消费者越来越重视更小的碳足迹,该公司应该能够在未来许多年以有吸引力的速度增长。然而,一个行业明显的增长前景并不会自动转化为股价上涨。例如,那些在互联网泡沫期间高位购买思科(CSCO)股票的公司,尽管该业务在此期间经历了巨大增长,但22年后的今天仍然处于亏损状态。估值也应该考虑,普拉格能源今天的价格远非便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Forecast For 2030</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2030年普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.</p><p><blockquote>如今,普拉格能源的股价约为今年预期收入的32倍。如果这是市盈率,相对于公司的平均估值,该股仍然不会特别便宜。以超过30倍的销售额计算,股价确实看起来非常昂贵。当我们考虑PLUG未来十年的增长前景时,这在某种程度上是相对的,但我相信股价仍高于公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师对2030年收入的一致估计是正确的,为105亿美元,那么目前股价的交易价格约为2030年收入的1.5倍。许多工业公司目前的交易价格是今年收入的1至2倍,这表明PLUG的股票已经反映了未来的增长。当然,人们可以说,PLUG在2030年的增长前景可能仍好于当今的普通公司,因为PLUG很有可能在2030年之后以两位数的速度增长。但我相信,PLUG股价在未来十年的上涨空间不会太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.</p><p><blockquote>如果PLUG在2030年的交易收入仍然相对较高的3.5倍,那么我们的市值估计约为370亿美元,大约是今天的2.3倍。然而,PLUG的股票数量在未来十年不会保持不变,这就是为什么每股回报率将低于这一数字。如果我们假设股票数量每年仅增长2%,那么2030年的股票数量将略高于7亿股。在370亿美元的市值下,每只股票的交易价格约为53美元,这意味着从今天起的回报率约为100%。按年计算,这相当于8%的回报率。8%的年回报率远非坏事,但要实现这一目标,许多事情必须顺利进行——PLUG必须执行良好,交付增长项目,并避免大规模股票发行。当我们还考虑到这一估计需要2030年仍然相当高的3.5倍销售倍数时,我相信这些回报还不足以保证买入评级。8%的回报可能来自风险非常低、不确定性非常低的蓝筹股,但这里的情况并非如此。作为参考,如果PLUG执行良好并达到增长预期,但其股价在2030年的交易价格为销售额的2.5倍,那么假设年稀释2%,股价将为37美元,这相当于年回报率仅为4%。仅去年一年,PLUG的股票数量就增加了约50%,尽管我预计未来几年不会出现类似的稀释,但PLUG的股票数量至少有可能每年大幅增加2%以上,这将进一步给回报带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言,我不认为投资者在未来十年或更长时间内会因PLUG而亏损。但我也不相信投资者会在这段时间内看到非常有吸引力的回报,尽管普拉格能源的基本业务增长前景非常有吸引力。股票已经反映了未来的大量增长,我相信通过风险较低、股票波动性较小的投资也可以产生低于10%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论:10年后普拉格能源会在哪里?</b></blockquote></p><p> One can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.</p><p><blockquote>今天人们无法知道这一点,但我们可以做出有根据的猜测。根据上面列出的5月份情景,PLUG在2030年的交易价格可能为37-55美元,考虑到又一年的增长,我相信,如果很多事情进展顺利,我们在2031年的交易价格可能会达到40-60美元。如果增长项目出现重大问题,或者股票数量增长超过预期,这些估计可能会过高。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言,我认为PLUG的股票有相当大的长期上涨潜力,但中高个位数范围的预期回报并不巨大,通过更成熟、波动性更小的投资可以产生相同的回报,不确定性更少,执行风险更小。因此,我确实认为PLUG在这里不值得买入,尽管我喜欢该公司的增长前景及其在有吸引力的行业中的地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后的普拉格能源会在哪里?</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Plug Power Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后的普拉格能源会在哪里?</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Plug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.</li> <li>It serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.</li> <li>Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa1aea5535d99338f385c168062b218\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>普拉格能源活跃在一个具有巨大增长动力的有吸引力的行业中。</li><li>它服务于低风险客户,在行业中拥有强大的地位。</li><li>股价反映了未来的大量增长,投资者在以当前估值配置资金之前应该考虑实际每股回报可能是什么样子。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Fokusiert/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司(PLUG)活跃于高增长行业,只要公司能够实现其目标并且管理层执行良好,这就意味着强劲的长期业务增长前景。然而,该公司尚未盈利,实现有意义的净利润的道路仍然存在一些不确定性。从更长远的角度来看,我们可以预计普拉格能源将产生正的净利润,尽管该公司目前的估值相对较高。不过,从风险回报的角度来看,可能有更好的选择,尽管我相信2031年股价将大幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:</p><p><blockquote>去年,普拉格能源公司的股价剧烈上下波动:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d940297249151eddcccf6440d20ef031\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.</p><p><blockquote>股价比12个月前上涨了130%,但与此同时,股价仅为今天历史高点的三分之一。2021年初,其他可再生能源/新能源及相关股票(包括电动汽车)受益于投资者的巨大热情,股价大幅上涨。此后,热情似乎有所降温,股价又回到了20多美元。按目前价格计算,普拉格能源公司的估值为160亿美元,稀释后的股票数量略低于6亿股。分析师目前非常看好该股,因为41美元的一致目标价意味着明年较当前价格有50%左右的上涨潜力。但值得注意的是,近几个月来分析师一致的目标价已被下调,并且未来可能会继续下调。由于不存在利润,PLUG无法以盈利为基础进行估值,但股价约为今年收入的30倍,这相当昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Prediction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源公司活跃在一个绝对增长的行业,因为氢燃料电池将在未来几年看到巨大的需求增长,因为它们允许作为其他燃料的环保替代品。普拉格能源作为该技术市场领先地位的交钥匙供应商,完全有能力利用这一大趋势。通过包括Brookfield Renewable Partners(BEP)在内的全球合作伙伴网络,普拉格能源正在致力于在全球范围内发展绿色氢产业:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91a8e3b57882e429c9eace431bd1f541\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Plug Power presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:普拉格能源演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Plug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源的绿色氢可用于为卡车、公共汽车和其他车辆提供动力,同时该公司还为公用事业公司使用的兆瓦级柴油发电机提供环保替代品。除此之外,该公司还致力于其他尚未准备好商业化的项目,例如用氢气为飞机提供动力。2024年,即三年后,普拉格能源将在美国运营至少5座氢气厂,美国以及欧洲等海外市场正在建设更多项目。</blockquote></p><p> 80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源80%的客户是该公司的评级蓝筹客户,其中包括亚马逊(AMZN)等公司。这些公司通常非常倾向于改善其二氧化碳足迹,以获得更好的ESG评级,同时,这些公司是低风险客户,因为其强劲的资产负债表和现金流意味着流动性或偿付能力问题的风险可以忽略不计。总体而言,普拉格能源因此与有吸引力的同行合作,他们的财务火力意味着普拉格能源不会被迫以便宜的价格出售其产品,这就是为什么该公司最近几个季度能够产生相对有吸引力的产品毛利率在30年代。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Due to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.</p><p><blockquote>然而,由于公司规模仍然相对较小,普拉格能源在净利润或运营基础上均未盈利。相对于普拉格能源产生的收入,该公司的运营费用目前仍然过高。然而,这种情况应该会随着时间的推移而改变,因为运营杠杆和产品利润率的提高应该会使普拉格能源的毛利润相对于运营费用增长,从而提高盈利能力。分析师目前预测2024财年(即三年后)净利润为正。当然,如果普拉格能源已经达到了这一点,那就更好了,但对于长期投资者来说,再有两年的负利润并不是一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p> When investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:</p><p><blockquote>在投资普拉格能源这样的公司时,短期并不太重要,但更重要的是公司收入和利润增长的长期潜力。通过ESG顺风、大规模市场增长及其市场领导地位的结合,普拉格能源似乎处于有利地位,可以在未来许多年增加收入:</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d6f0576ba51f219d85b18d90ccaf6f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"628\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测,未来三年收入将以每年50%以上的速度增长,而至少到2030年,增长率预计将保持近30%,这相当于极具吸引力的长期增长前景。当然,不能保证这种情况确实会发生,因为商业模式的一些风险仍然存在。该公司尚未盈利,因此未来增长项目的资金理论上可能会成为一个问题。最重要的是,其他财力雄厚的参与者可能会试图扰乱市场或获得市场份额。我相信,由于普拉格能源的领导地位,这种风险并不是很大。但如果市场竞争变得更加激烈,非盈利的普拉格能源如果遭遇市场份额争夺战,可能会给利润率带来压力,可能会遇到问题。</blockquote></p><p> Some execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.</p><p><blockquote>因此,一些执行风险确实仍然存在,投资者不应将上述增长预测视为绝对可靠的清晰预测。然而,相反,上述预测展示了基本情况可能是什么样子,实际结果可能比这更好或更差。总体而言,可以说普拉格能源业务的长期前景非常好,因为随着投资者、公司和消费者越来越重视更小的碳足迹,该公司应该能够在未来许多年以有吸引力的速度增长。然而,一个行业明显的增长前景并不会自动转化为股价上涨。例如,那些在互联网泡沫期间高位购买思科(CSCO)股票的公司,尽管该业务在此期间经历了巨大增长,但22年后的今天仍然处于亏损状态。估值也应该考虑,普拉格能源今天的价格远非便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Plug Power Stock Forecast For 2030</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2030年普拉格能源股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Today, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.</p><p><blockquote>如今,普拉格能源的股价约为今年预期收入的32倍。如果这是市盈率,相对于公司的平均估值,该股仍然不会特别便宜。以超过30倍的销售额计算,股价确实看起来非常昂贵。当我们考虑PLUG未来十年的增长前景时,这在某种程度上是相对的,但我相信股价仍高于公允价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师对2030年收入的一致估计是正确的,为105亿美元,那么目前股价的交易价格约为2030年收入的1.5倍。许多工业公司目前的交易价格是今年收入的1至2倍,这表明PLUG的股票已经反映了未来的增长。当然,人们可以说,PLUG在2030年的增长前景可能仍好于当今的普通公司,因为PLUG很有可能在2030年之后以两位数的速度增长。但我相信,PLUG股价在未来十年的上涨空间不会太大。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.</p><p><blockquote>如果PLUG在2030年的交易收入仍然相对较高的3.5倍,那么我们的市值估计约为370亿美元,大约是今天的2.3倍。然而,PLUG的股票数量在未来十年不会保持不变,这就是为什么每股回报率将低于这一数字。如果我们假设股票数量每年仅增长2%,那么2030年的股票数量将略高于7亿股。在370亿美元的市值下,每只股票的交易价格约为53美元,这意味着从今天起的回报率约为100%。按年计算,这相当于8%的回报率。8%的年回报率远非坏事,但要实现这一目标,许多事情必须顺利进行——PLUG必须执行良好,交付增长项目,并避免大规模股票发行。当我们还考虑到这一估计需要2030年仍然相当高的3.5倍销售倍数时,我相信这些回报还不足以保证买入评级。8%的回报可能来自风险非常低、不确定性非常低的蓝筹股,但这里的情况并非如此。作为参考,如果PLUG执行良好并达到增长预期,但其股价在2030年的交易价格为销售额的2.5倍,那么假设年稀释2%,股价将为37美元,这相当于年回报率仅为4%。仅去年一年,PLUG的股票数量就增加了约50%,尽管我预计未来几年不会出现类似的稀释,但PLUG的股票数量至少有可能每年大幅增加2%以上,这将进一步给回报带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言,我不认为投资者在未来十年或更长时间内会因PLUG而亏损。但我也不相信投资者会在这段时间内看到非常有吸引力的回报,尽管普拉格能源的基本业务增长前景非常有吸引力。股票已经反映了未来的大量增长,我相信通过风险较低、股票波动性较小的投资也可以产生低于10%的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论:10年后普拉格能源会在哪里?</b></blockquote></p><p> One can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.</p><p><blockquote>今天人们无法知道这一点,但我们可以做出有根据的猜测。根据上面列出的5月份情景,PLUG在2030年的交易价格可能为37-55美元,考虑到又一年的增长,我相信,如果很多事情进展顺利,我们在2031年的交易价格可能会达到40-60美元。如果增长项目出现重大问题,或者股票数量增长超过预期,这些估计可能会过高。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言,我认为PLUG的股票有相当大的长期上涨潜力,但中高个位数范围的预期回报并不巨大,通过更成熟、波动性更小的投资可以产生相同的回报,不确定性更少,执行风险更小。因此,我确实认为PLUG在这里不值得买入,尽管我喜欢该公司的增长前景及其在有吸引力的行业中的地位。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449266-plug-power-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133270372","content_text":"Summary\n\nPlug Power is active in an attractive industry with huge growth tailwinds.\nIt serves low-risk customers and has a strong position in its industry.\nShares are pricing in a lot of future growth, and investors should consider what actual per-share returns might look like before deploying money at current valuations.\n\nFokusiert/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPlug Power, Inc. (PLUG) is active in a high-growth industry, which translates into a strong long-term business growth outlook, as long as the company can capitalize on its goals and management executes well. The company is, however, not profitable yet, and the path to meaningful net profits holds some uncertainties still. Taking a longer-term view, we can expect that Plug Power will generate positive net profits despite the fact that shares are valuing the company at a relatively high current valuation. From a risk-reward standpoint, there may be better picks available, though, despite the fact that I believe that shares will trade materially higher in 2031.\nPlug Power Stock Price\nPlug Power, Inc. has seen its share price move up and down violently over the last year:\nData by YCharts\nShares trade 130% higher than 12 months ago, but at the same time, shares trade at just one-third of the all-time high today. In early 2021, shares exploded upwards at a time when other renewable/new energy and related stocks, including EV plays, benefited from massive investor enthusiasm. Since then, enthusiasm seems to have cooled, and shares have reverted back to the $20s. At current prices, Plug Power, Inc. is valued at $16 billion based on a diluted share count of a little less than 600 million. Analysts are pretty bullish on the stock right now, as the consensus price target of $41 implies an upside potential of around 50% from current prices throughout the next year. It should be noted, however, that the analyst consensus price target has been lowered in recent months, and may continue to be lowered going forward. Due to non-existent profits PLUG can't be valued on an earnings basis, but shares trade for around 30x this year's revenue, which is quite expensive.\nPlug Power Stock Prediction\nPlug Power, Inc. is active in an absolute growth industry, as hydrogen fuel cells will see huge demand growth in coming years as they allow for an environmentally friendly alternative to other fuels. Plug Power, as a turnkey provider in a market leadership position for this technology, is well-positioned to capitalize on this megatrend. Through a network of global partnerships, including with Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP), Plug Power is working on growing the green hydrogen industryglobally:\nSource: Plug Power presentation\nPlug Power's green hydrogen can be used for powering trucks, busses, and other vehicles, while the company is also providing environmentally friendly alternatives to diesel generators in the megawatt scale range that can be used by utilities, for example. The company is, on top of that, also working on other ventures that are not ready to be commercialized yet, such as powering aircraft with hydrogen. Plug Power will have at least 5 hydrogen plants running in the US in 2024, i.e. three years from now, with more projects being in the pipeline both in the US and in overseas markets such as Europe.\n80% of Plug Power's customers are what the company calls blue chip customers, which includes companies such as Amazon (AMZN). These companies are oftentimes highly inclined to improve their CO2 footprint in order to receive better ESG ratings, and at the same time, these are low-risk customers as their strong balance sheets and cash flows mean that the risk of liquidity or solvency issues is negligible. Overall, Plug Power thus works with attractive counterparts, and their financial firepower means that Plug Power is not forced to sell its products at bargain prices, which is why the company has been able to generate relatively attractive product gross margins in the 30s in recent quarters.\nDue to the still relatively small scale of the company, Plug Power is not profitable on a net basis or operating basis, however. The company's operating expenses, relative to the revenues that Plug Power generates, are still too high for now. This should, however, change over time, as operating leverage and improving product margins should allow Plug Power to grow gross profits relative to operating expenses, which will result in improving profitability. Analysts are currently predicting positive net profits for fiscal 2024, or three years from now. It would, of course, be better if Plug Power had hit that point already, but for long-term oriented investors, two more years of negative profits will not be a disaster.\nWhen investing in a company such as Plug Power, the very near term is not too relevant, but what matters more is the longer-term potential of the company to grow its revenue and profits. Through the combination of ESG tailwinds, massive market growth, and its market leadership position, Plug Power seems to be well-positioned to grow its revenue for many years to come:\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAnalysts are currently predicting that revenues will grow at 50%+ a year over the next three years, while growth is forecasted to remain almost 30% through at least 2030, which equates to a highly attractive long-term growth outlook. There are, of course, no guarantees that this will indeed happen, as some risks to the business model remain. The company is not profitable yet, thus funding of future growth projects could theoretically become a problem. On top of that, it is possible that other players with deep pockets will try to disrupt the market or gain market share. The risk of that is, I believe, due to Plug Power's leadership position, not very large. But should the market become more competitive, non-profitable Plug Power might run into problems if it were to run into market share fights that could pressure margins.\nSome execution risks do thus remain for sure, and investors shouldn't see the above growth projections as crystal-clear forecasts that are infallible. Instead, however, the above predictions showcase what a base-case scenario could look like, and actual results might be better or worse than that. Overall, it can be said that the longer-term outlook for Plug Power's business is excellent, as the company should be able to grow at an attractive pace for many years to come, as investors, companies, and consumers put more and more emphasis on a smaller carbon footprint. Obvious growth prospects for an industry do not, however, automatically translate into share price gains. Those that bought shares of Cisco (CSCO) at the highs during the dot.com bubble, for example, are still in the red today, 22 years later, despite the massive growth the business has experienced in that time frame. Valuations should be considered as well, and Plug Power is far from cheap today.\nPlug Power Stock Forecast For 2030\nToday, Plug Power is trading for around 32x this year's expected revenue. If that was an earnings multiple, the stock still wouldn't be especially cheap, relative to how the average company is valued. At more than 30x sales, shares do seem very expensive. When we consider PLUG's growth outlook over the coming decade, that is relativized to some degree, but I believe that shares are still trading above fair value.\nIf the analyst consensus estimate for 2030's revenues is correct, at $10.5 billion, then shares are trading at around 1.5x 2030's revenue right now. Many industrial names are trading for 1x to 2x this year's revenue right now, which indicates how much future growth is priced into PLUG's stock already. One can, of course, argue that PLUG's growth outlook in 2030 is likely still better than that of the average company today, as it seems very much possible for PLUG to grow at a double-digit rate well beyond 2030. But still, shares upside for PLUG's shares is not too great over the coming decade, I believe.\nIf PLUG were to trade at a still relatively steep 3.5x revenue in 2030, this gets us to a market cap estimate of around $37billion, or roughly 2.3x as much as today. PLUG's share count will, however, not stay unchanged over the next decade, which is why returns on a per-share basis will be lower than that. If we assume that the share count climbs by just 2% a year, 2030's share count will stand at a little above 700 million. At a $37 billion market capitalization, each individual stock would then trade at around $53, which would mean a return of ~100% from today. On an annual basis, this would equate to returns of 8%. 8% annual returns are far from bad, but many things have to go right for that to happen -- PLUG has to execute well, deliver on growth projects, and avoid massive share issuance. When we also consider that this estimate requires a still rather high 3.5x sales multiple in 2030, then those returns are not great enough to warrant a buy rating, I believe. It would be different of 8% returns could come from a very de-risked blue chip with very low uncertainties, but that is not the case here. For reference, if PLUG executes well and hits growth estimates, but its shares trade for 2.5x sales in 2030, then the share price, assuming 2% annual dilution, would be $37, which would equate to just 4% annual returns. PLUG's share count has risen by around 50% over the last year alone, and even though I don't expect similar dilution in coming years, it is at least possible for PLUG's share count to rise by significantly more than 2% a year, which would pressure returns further.\nOverall, I do not believe that investors will lose money with PLUG over the next decade or more. But I also do not believe that investors will see very attractive returns in that time frame, despite the fact that Plug Power's underlying business growth outlook is highly attractive. Shares are pricing in a lot of future growth already, and I believe that returns in the sub-10% range can also be generated through lower-risk investments, with less volatile stocks.\nConclusion: Where Could Plug Power Be In 10 Years?\nOne can't know that today, but we can make educated guesses. According to may scenarios laid out above, PLUG could trade at $37-$55 in 2030, factoring in another year of growth, we could end up at $40-$60 in 2031, I believe -- if many things go right. In case there are major hiccups with growth projects, or if the share count rises more than expected, these estimates may be too high.\nOverall, I believe that there is considerable long-term upside potential for PLUG's shares, but expected returns in the mid-to-high-single digits range are not gigantic, and the same returns can be generated through more mature, less volatile investments with fewer uncertainties and less execution risk. I thus do think that PLUG is not a buy right here, even though I like the company's growth prospects and its position in an attractive industry.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897641004,"gmtCreate":1628916174908,"gmtModify":1633688503017,"author":{"id":"3582015941678991","authorId":"3582015941678991","name":"MG8000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae04462881ae84bc3e097956d467e328","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582015941678991","idStr":"3582015941678991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897641004","repostId":"1149823415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149823415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628909753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149823415?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里?</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149823415","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li> <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li> <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li> <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望,维珍银河财报后下跌超过30%。</li><li>然而,我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁,以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后,我们为正在考虑增加维珍银河投资的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在5月份,当我们发表关于维珍银河(SPCE)的上一篇文章(链接到本文所附文章)时,我们明确强调,我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观,因为我们认为这些预测夸大了市场根据我们咨询多个来源的研究,未来10年亚轨道太空旅游的机会在很大程度上,我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后,华尔街日报下调了近期预测,因为该公司最近表示,他们预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始提供商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“延迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后,我们将为目前考虑增加该股投资的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对维珍银河平均共识估计的修正</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates & Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5月份的普遍收入估计和8月份的普遍收入估计。数据来源:标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模(5月至8月估计数之间)。数据来源:标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地收集到,近期共识预期较5月份影响21年至25年的预测有所下调。然而,我们认为投资者需要注意的是,华尔街从CY26大幅上调了其预期,以反映SPCE在最近的盈利看涨期权中强调的强劲需求,我们认为这表明了该公司对强劲收入跑道的信心长期,我们将在后续章节中详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>私人商业全收入服务预计从2022年第三季度开始</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自8月5日发布财报以来,SPCE的价值已下跌约33%,我们认为这主要是由于VSS Unity和VSS Unity拟议的关键增强功能导致其商业服务推出“延迟”而带来的近期阻力。母舰VMS Eve将显着增加飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于Unity 23与意大利空军的创收飞行完成后将进行的增强,该公司预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始其私人商业全面收入服务,我们认为这可能会让投资者大吃一惊,因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于2022年开始,但他们预计不会晚于第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而,我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性,而忽视了预计将显着改善VMS Eve周转时间的增强功能的重要性,以至于维珍银河强调:</blockquote></p><p> These enhancements <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships. In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强功能<i>可能允许Eve在主要维护检查之间飞行100次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间的10个航班间隔有所增加。在早期商业服务期间,当我们正在制造更多母舰时,这将是一个非常重要的成功因素。此外,该公司还强调,通过这些增强功能,该公司还“目标是将Unity航班之间的周转飞行时间减少4至5周,而VSS Unity最多7至8周。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一消息感到失望,因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级,摩根士丹利还强调:“在这个繁重的维护期间,维珍银河在2022年夏季之前都无法进行任何太空飞行。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然,没有航班。我们当然不担心,因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性:</blockquote></p><p> These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\" If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve相当稳健的修改。但是,我们为Eve的增强期增加范围和时间的原因是,在此增强期之后,我们将从Eve获得的飞行率是我们计划建立的。在主要检查和我们现在所做的之间,这几乎是10倍。这将使我们能够更频繁地飞行Eve,并且<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们将从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.“如果投资者能够清楚地收集该公司在上述句子中使用的语言,那么该公司显然这样做是因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲,我们认为这可能超出了该公司最初的计划。因此,虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关妙招,但它无疑让该公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应,并且该公司明确表示,他们看到了如此强劲的需求,因此需要开放正如首席执行官迈克尔·科尔格拉齐尔(Michael Colglazier)所阐明的那样,尽快列出优先事项清单:</blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here. We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们在网站上看到的巨大需求,我很高兴地宣布,我们将很快为希望成为下一个的未来太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的太空人转换过程结束后,我们将首先向这个列表提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供...我们对整个潜在市场充满信心,对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应就表明了这一点。所以我们不会全部吸收,但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此,该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对供应明显严重受限的情况下的需求。他们在短期内会做的下一件最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改,以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝索斯蓝色起源(BORGN)的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多迫不及待想上VSS Unity的客户吗?</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的,想到该公司期待这么多迫不及待地加入的客户,真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司Hemisphere Ventures的管理合伙人丽莎·里奇(Lisa Rich)明确表示:“……这些年来,我遇到了很多维珍(银河)的持票人。顺便说一句,他们每个人都告诉我,由于他们多年来分享的经历,他们花在等待上的25万美元已经收回了10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解,多年来,由600名致力于维珍银河飞行服务的未来宇航员组成的社区形成了一个紧密团结的团体,正如该公司所强调的那样:“我认为在现有的未来宇航员之外可能不为人所知的一件事是维珍银河的秘密武器之一,那就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人,他们将这600人聚集成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调,这些客户真正重视实现飞行体验的旅程,因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生过渡之旅”。他们看到了维珍银河所做的事情的巨大价值,以至于该公司强调,他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要考虑的[优先事项]并且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是,该公司还强调,他们已经向通过该公司“一小步”计划注册的1000多名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售,每个座位的价格从45万美元起,远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为,这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”,因为他们拥有该公司煞费苦心建立的强大而紧密的宇航员社区的经验:“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时,我认为他们会回来,我认为人们分享这些经验是非常自然的<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说这是多么美妙,还会给人类航天的概念带来常态。因此,当我们将这群人引入时,他们的终身价值是全面的需求,并在他们走出去分享他们所做的事情时继续增加总的潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强劲的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到,如果该公司仅依靠VSS Unity或VSS Imagine机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场,这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计,如果不对VMS Eve进行修改,该公司最初的600名未来宇航员社区的工作至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏(修改前)是最多10个收入航班,总共60名乘客。到2023年,该公司每年最多只能飞行24至36次航班,这将允许他们最多飞行144至216名宇航员。因此,到2025年,维珍银河可能至少还需要2年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单,我们认为到那时,至少其中一些人会去蓝色起源。因此,最初的节奏真的不起作用,特别是该公司准备很快为Unity 22公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表,他们需要快速完成1600名未来宇航员的工作,这在短期内将通过Eve的修改来解决,因为它允许SPCE在主要检查之间多飞行10倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而,该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此,他们宣布将制造下一代Delta级车辆,“能够每隔一周启动一次”。随着时间的推移,此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the $500M equity offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集5亿美元股票发行的部分原因是,他们已准备好开始开发和制造Delta级车辆,这将非常有助于满足其长期产能和节奏,VSS Unity和VSS想象永远无法充分满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是,该公司强调,通过提高达美级的产量和产能,他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆,正如维珍银河强调的那样:“...这就是为什么我们如此专注于用下一代母舰获得达美级。这是我们真正获得效率的地方。这是我们获得规模的地方。这是你真正看到流通的地方,因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础,便于我们沟通,也便于我们在未来为效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将成为这里的游戏名称,维珍银河清楚地认识到,对于该公司来说,以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营以与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游,但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前也强调的那样:“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了亚轨道太空旅游,摩根士丹利强调,“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务,假设技术快速发展,到2040年,太空市场的规模将扩大两倍,年销售额将超过1万亿美元。实现例行登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此,虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景,但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域,这将是决定维珍银河领导地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的。两家公司预计,随着生产规模的扩大和技术的改进,亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此,维珍银河在这个市场中的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势,而蓝色起源则忙于其整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游变得更加容易,而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此,我们认为该公司的达美级计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要,并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast & Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast & CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源:标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd EBITDA趋势。数据来源:标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面收入服务的推出推迟到22年第三季度,但华尔街预计该公司将从2024财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要,因为它展示了公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力,目前只有BORGN和SPCE是明显的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而,到2030年底,估值看起来仍然昂贵,为18.5倍,比航空航天和国防同行13.61倍的平均水平高出36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street的平均目标价。来源:TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观,平均目标价为35.55美元,仅比上一收盘价高出13.5%,因为分析师关注SPCE将其收入服务转移到2022年第三季度的近期“阻力”,我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋,但我们对维珍银河看似昂贵的估值并不那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股价走势及趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于SPCE的估值昂贵,我们认为SPCE不适合长期投资者,但我们认为头寸交易者仍可能发现该股潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE在50周移动平均线动态支撑位上受到强有力的支撑,该支撑位自2020年以来一直保持强劲,包括最近5月份出现的下行错误突破(熊市陷阱)。因此,我们希望,一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决,热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述,我们为长期投资者给予SPCE中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里?</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里?</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 10:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li> <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li> <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li> <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望,维珍银河财报后下跌超过30%。</li><li>然而,我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁,以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后,我们为正在考虑增加维珍银河投资的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在5月份,当我们发表关于维珍银河(SPCE)的上一篇文章(链接到本文所附文章)时,我们明确强调,我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观,因为我们认为这些预测夸大了市场根据我们咨询多个来源的研究,未来10年亚轨道太空旅游的机会在很大程度上,我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后,华尔街日报下调了近期预测,因为该公司最近表示,他们预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始提供商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“延迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后,我们将为目前考虑增加该股投资的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对维珍银河平均共识估计的修正</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates & Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5月份的普遍收入估计和8月份的普遍收入估计。数据来源:标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模(5月至8月估计数之间)。数据来源:标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地收集到,近期共识预期较5月份影响21年至25年的预测有所下调。然而,我们认为投资者需要注意的是,华尔街从CY26大幅上调了其预期,以反映SPCE在最近的盈利看涨期权中强调的强劲需求,我们认为这表明了该公司对强劲收入跑道的信心长期,我们将在后续章节中详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>私人商业全收入服务预计从2022年第三季度开始</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自8月5日发布财报以来,SPCE的价值已下跌约33%,我们认为这主要是由于VSS Unity和VSS Unity拟议的关键增强功能导致其商业服务推出“延迟”而带来的近期阻力。母舰VMS Eve将显着增加飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于Unity 23与意大利空军的创收飞行完成后将进行的增强,该公司预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始其私人商业全面收入服务,我们认为这可能会让投资者大吃一惊,因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于2022年开始,但他们预计不会晚于第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而,我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性,而忽视了预计将显着改善VMS Eve周转时间的增强功能的重要性,以至于维珍银河强调:</blockquote></p><p> These enhancements <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships. In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强功能<i>可能允许Eve在主要维护检查之间飞行100次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间的10个航班间隔有所增加。在早期商业服务期间,当我们正在制造更多母舰时,这将是一个非常重要的成功因素。此外,该公司还强调,通过这些增强功能,该公司还“目标是将Unity航班之间的周转飞行时间减少4至5周,而VSS Unity最多7至8周。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一消息感到失望,因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级,摩根士丹利还强调:“在这个繁重的维护期间,维珍银河在2022年夏季之前都无法进行任何太空飞行。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然,没有航班。我们当然不担心,因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性:</blockquote></p><p> These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\" If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve相当稳健的修改。但是,我们为Eve的增强期增加范围和时间的原因是,在此增强期之后,我们将从Eve获得的飞行率是我们计划建立的。在主要检查和我们现在所做的之间,这几乎是10倍。这将使我们能够更频繁地飞行Eve,并且<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们将从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.“如果投资者能够清楚地收集该公司在上述句子中使用的语言,那么该公司显然这样做是因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲,我们认为这可能超出了该公司最初的计划。因此,虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关妙招,但它无疑让该公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应,并且该公司明确表示,他们看到了如此强劲的需求,因此需要开放正如首席执行官迈克尔·科尔格拉齐尔(Michael Colglazier)所阐明的那样,尽快列出优先事项清单:</blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here. We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们在网站上看到的巨大需求,我很高兴地宣布,我们将很快为希望成为下一个的未来太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的太空人转换过程结束后,我们将首先向这个列表提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供...我们对整个潜在市场充满信心,对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应就表明了这一点。所以我们不会全部吸收,但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此,该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对供应明显严重受限的情况下的需求。他们在短期内会做的下一件最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改,以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝索斯蓝色起源(BORGN)的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多迫不及待想上VSS Unity的客户吗?</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的,想到该公司期待这么多迫不及待地加入的客户,真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司Hemisphere Ventures的管理合伙人丽莎·里奇(Lisa Rich)明确表示:“……这些年来,我遇到了很多维珍(银河)的持票人。顺便说一句,他们每个人都告诉我,由于他们多年来分享的经历,他们花在等待上的25万美元已经收回了10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解,多年来,由600名致力于维珍银河飞行服务的未来宇航员组成的社区形成了一个紧密团结的团体,正如该公司所强调的那样:“我认为在现有的未来宇航员之外可能不为人所知的一件事是维珍银河的秘密武器之一,那就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人,他们将这600人聚集成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调,这些客户真正重视实现飞行体验的旅程,因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生过渡之旅”。他们看到了维珍银河所做的事情的巨大价值,以至于该公司强调,他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要考虑的[优先事项]并且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是,该公司还强调,他们已经向通过该公司“一小步”计划注册的1000多名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售,每个座位的价格从45万美元起,远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为,这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”,因为他们拥有该公司煞费苦心建立的强大而紧密的宇航员社区的经验:“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时,我认为他们会回来,我认为人们分享这些经验是非常自然的<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说这是多么美妙,还会给人类航天的概念带来常态。因此,当我们将这群人引入时,他们的终身价值是全面的需求,并在他们走出去分享他们所做的事情时继续增加总的潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强劲的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到,如果该公司仅依靠VSS Unity或VSS Imagine机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场,这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计,如果不对VMS Eve进行修改,该公司最初的600名未来宇航员社区的工作至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏(修改前)是最多10个收入航班,总共60名乘客。到2023年,该公司每年最多只能飞行24至36次航班,这将允许他们最多飞行144至216名宇航员。因此,到2025年,维珍银河可能至少还需要2年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单,我们认为到那时,至少其中一些人会去蓝色起源。因此,最初的节奏真的不起作用,特别是该公司准备很快为Unity 22公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表,他们需要快速完成1600名未来宇航员的工作,这在短期内将通过Eve的修改来解决,因为它允许SPCE在主要检查之间多飞行10倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而,该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此,他们宣布将制造下一代Delta级车辆,“能够每隔一周启动一次”。随着时间的推移,此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the $500M equity offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集5亿美元股票发行的部分原因是,他们已准备好开始开发和制造Delta级车辆,这将非常有助于满足其长期产能和节奏,VSS Unity和VSS想象永远无法充分满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是,该公司强调,通过提高达美级的产量和产能,他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆,正如维珍银河强调的那样:“...这就是为什么我们如此专注于用下一代母舰获得达美级。这是我们真正获得效率的地方。这是我们获得规模的地方。这是你真正看到流通的地方,因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础,便于我们沟通,也便于我们在未来为效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将成为这里的游戏名称,维珍银河清楚地认识到,对于该公司来说,以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营以与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游,但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前也强调的那样:“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了亚轨道太空旅游,摩根士丹利强调,“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务,假设技术快速发展,到2040年,太空市场的规模将扩大两倍,年销售额将超过1万亿美元。实现例行登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此,虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景,但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域,这将是决定维珍银河领导地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的。两家公司预计,随着生产规模的扩大和技术的改进,亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此,维珍银河在这个市场中的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势,而蓝色起源则忙于其整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游变得更加容易,而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此,我们认为该公司的达美级计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要,并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast & Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast & CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源:标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd EBITDA趋势。数据来源:标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面收入服务的推出推迟到22年第三季度,但华尔街预计该公司将从2024财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要,因为它展示了公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力,目前只有BORGN和SPCE是明显的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而,到2030年底,估值看起来仍然昂贵,为18.5倍,比航空航天和国防同行13.61倍的平均水平高出36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street的平均目标价。来源:TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观,平均目标价为35.55美元,仅比上一收盘价高出13.5%,因为分析师关注SPCE将其收入服务转移到2022年第三季度的近期“阻力”,我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋,但我们对维珍银河看似昂贵的估值并不那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股价走势及趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源:TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于SPCE的估值昂贵,我们认为SPCE不适合长期投资者,但我们认为头寸交易者仍可能发现该股潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE在50周移动平均线动态支撑位上受到强有力的支撑,该支撑位自2020年以来一直保持强劲,包括最近5月份出现的下行错误突破(熊市陷阱)。因此,我们希望,一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决,热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述,我们为长期投资者给予SPCE中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149823415","content_text":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.\nHowever, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.\nWe would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.\nLastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.\n\nNastco/iStock via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nBack in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.\nSince then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from late Q3'CY22.\nThis article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.\nLastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.\nRevisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates\nMay's consensus revenue estimates & Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nScale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nInvestors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.\nPrivate Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22\nSPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.\nAs a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.\nHowever, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:\n\n These enhancements\n could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.\n\nIn addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"\nThe Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"\nSure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:\n\n These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and\n that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today.\"\n\nIf investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:\n\n Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.\n\nWe are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).\nAre There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?\nYes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"\nInvestors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"\nThe company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"\nImportantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.\nVirgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience.And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"\nStrong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage\nAstute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.\nBased on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.\nThe initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.\nHowever, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.\nPart of the reason that the company needed to raise the $500M equity offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.\nCrucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"\nCompeting Against Blue Origin\nWe think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.\nWhile we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”\nWe think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"\nTherefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.\nOne thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.\nVirgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.\nFree Cash Flow Forecast & Valuations\nEBITDA margin forecast & CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nDespite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.\nHowever, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.\nStreet's mean price target. Source: TIKR\nThe Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.\nWhile we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.\nSPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nWhile we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.\nSPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.\nIn summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895844642,"gmtCreate":1628735571186,"gmtModify":1633689888853,"author":{"id":"3582015941678991","authorId":"3582015941678991","name":"MG8000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae04462881ae84bc3e097956d467e328","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582015941678991","idStr":"3582015941678991"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895844642","repostId":"2158235575","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}