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- SongernSongern
  ·2021-06-17
  Buy buy!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  344 评论
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- SongernSongern
  ·2021-06-07
  Oh noo
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  473 评论
  1
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- SongernSongern
  ·2021-06-07
  Buy sell safely everyone
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  449 1
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- SongernSongern
  ·2021-06-07
  Wow
  Daimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants
  BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shi
  Daimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants
  785 评论
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- SongernSongern
  ·2021-06-04
  Awesome
  Can Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.
  Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil
  Can Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.
  503 评论
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- SongernSongern
  ·2021-06-04
  Awesome
  Can Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.
  Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil
  Can Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.
  675 评论
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- SongernSongern
  ·2021-06-04
  To the moon !!!
  Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider
  Summary Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite
  Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider
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- SongernSongern
  ·2021-06-03
  Oh wow. Amazing
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- SongernSongern
  ·2021-06-03
  Hold!!!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  761 评论
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- SongernSongern
  ·2021-06-03
  HODL!!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  522 1
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13:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Daimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150140988","media":"Reuters","summary":"BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shi","content":"<p>BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shift and working days at two Beijing plants that will boost nominal capacity to make Mercedes-Benz cars by 45%, a document on the venture’s Chinese website showed.</p><p>The projected upgrade at Beijing Benz Automotive Co (BBAC), 49%-owned by Stuttgart-based Daimler and the latter’s main business in China, was set out in a document posted on the BBAC website last month to seek public opinion on the expansion.</p><p>It comes as demand for BBAC’s luxury vehicles surges in the world’s biggest car market. China is Daimler’s biggest country business, with more cars sold there than in Germany and the United States combined.</p><p>Last year BBAC sold a record 611,000 vehicles in the country, up 8% from 567,000 in 2019. The didn’t specify the base capacities of the factories, but the company has previously said combined capacity of the two plants was 520,000 vehicles a year.</p><p>According to the document, the joint venture will increase working days to 312 per year at both of its Beijing plants. Previously, one plant, known as the MRA factory, had 290 days of output per year while the other, the MFA factory, had 250 days.</p><p>One of the plants will also add one 7.5-hour shift per working day, according to the document, which did not specify the investment related to the capacity increase at the two factories, which plan to make gasoline and electric-powered vehicles.</p><p>BBAC, which declined to comment on the projected upgrade, also has a separate electric vehicle factory in Beijing with capacity of 150,000 cars per year.</p><p>The venture is 51%-owned by BAIC Motor. The latter’s parent, BAIC Group, owns 5% of Daimler, which didn’t answer Reuters’ questions on the capacity upgrade project.</p><p>Aside from BBAC, next year Daimler will start making electric Smart cars with China’s Geely, which holds a 9.7% stake of Daimler, the companies said in 2019. It also has a truck venture with another BAIC Group unit, Beiqi Foton .</p><p>Chinese policymakers expect 20% of overall new vehicle sales will be battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in 2025.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Daimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDaimler's China venture aims to raise capacity 45% at Mercedes-Benz plants\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 13:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-china/daimlers-china-venture-aims-to-raise-capacity-45-at-mercedes-benz-plants-document-idUSL3N2NL1RI><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shift and working days at two Beijing plants that will boost nominal capacity to make Mercedes-Benz ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-china/daimlers-china-venture-aims-to-raise-capacity-45-at-mercedes-benz-plants-document-idUSL3N2NL1RI\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDAIF":"戴姆勒汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/daimler-china/daimlers-china-venture-aims-to-raise-capacity-45-at-mercedes-benz-plants-document-idUSL3N2NL1RI","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150140988","content_text":"BEIJING, June 7 (Reuters) - Daimler AG’s main China joint venture with BAIC Motor plans to add a shift and working days at two Beijing plants that will boost nominal capacity to make Mercedes-Benz cars by 45%, a document on the venture’s Chinese website showed.The projected upgrade at Beijing Benz Automotive Co (BBAC), 49%-owned by Stuttgart-based Daimler and the latter’s main business in China, was set out in a document posted on the BBAC website last month to seek public opinion on the expansion.It comes as demand for BBAC’s luxury vehicles surges in the world’s biggest car market. China is Daimler’s biggest country business, with more cars sold there than in Germany and the United States combined.Last year BBAC sold a record 611,000 vehicles in the country, up 8% from 567,000 in 2019. The didn’t specify the base capacities of the factories, but the company has previously said combined capacity of the two plants was 520,000 vehicles a year.According to the document, the joint venture will increase working days to 312 per year at both of its Beijing plants. Previously, one plant, known as the MRA factory, had 290 days of output per year while the other, the MFA factory, had 250 days.One of the plants will also add one 7.5-hour shift per working day, according to the document, which did not specify the investment related to the capacity increase at the two factories, which plan to make gasoline and electric-powered vehicles.BBAC, which declined to comment on the projected upgrade, also has a separate electric vehicle factory in Beijing with capacity of 150,000 cars per year.The venture is 51%-owned by BAIC Motor. The latter’s parent, BAIC Group, owns 5% of Daimler, which didn’t answer Reuters’ questions on the capacity upgrade project.Aside from BBAC, next year Daimler will start making electric Smart cars with China’s Geely, which holds a 9.7% stake of Daimler, the companies said in 2019. It also has a truck venture with another BAIC Group unit, Beiqi Foton .Chinese policymakers expect 20% of overall new vehicle sales will be battery electric, plug-in hybrid or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in 2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116409935,"gmtCreate":1622814201327,"gmtModify":1634097749733,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome&nbsp;","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116409935","repostId":"1122646159","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122646159","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622811802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122646159?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 21:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122646159","media":"Barrons","summary":"Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil","content":"<p>Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil prices—were once a bullish boon for both EV sales and EV manufacturers’ stock prices.</p>\n<p>That line of thinking fell out of favor as the EV industry matured. Consider Tesla (TSLA): the EV maker’s stock fell almost 12% in May, the same month the Colonial Pipeline was hacked, disrupting gasoline supplies, and oil prices rose more than 4%.</p>\n<p>However, as oil prices climb&nbsp;higher this year and continue to do so—oil prices are up another 3.7% in June—one Wall Street analyst is dusting off the old EV-oil trading playbook.</p>\n<p>Why oil prices helped EV stocks isn’t hard to grasp. EVs are more expensive to purchase up-front than gasoline-powered automobiles. Rechargeable lithium ion batteries are far more expensive than gas tanks.&nbsp;However,&nbsp;it costs less to charge the batteries than to fill a gas tank<b>.</b>&nbsp;And higher oil prices mean higher gasoline prices, which could drive consumers into EVs.</p>\n<p>Higher oil prices helped boost Toyota Prius sales, which went from averaging roughly 140,000 a year in 2009 and 2010 to 240,000 between 2011 and 2013. Back then, oil prices averaged roughly $70 a barrel from 2009 to 2010, when Prius sales were averaging the lower number. Oil averaged roughly $95 a barrel from 2011 to 2013—the same time Prius sales increased.</p>\n<p>That’s one example, but the oil price/EV sale trade has broken down in recent years. Don’t forget, oil prices dropped in 2020 while Tesla sales hit a record of about 500,00 units.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analyst&nbsp;Adam Jonas&nbsp;thinks a linkage between oil and EVs may reappear. He pointed out in a Wednesday report that higher oil prices make EVs relatively more attractive. That much is obvious, but he also thinks prices won’t lead governments to relax drilling restrictions or invest in refining capacity to drive down oil prices. Instead, Jonas believes, higher oil prices will accelerate government support for EVs. That’s important, but the biggest boost to the EV sector will come when EVs cost the same as gasoline-powered cars—something Jonas says could happen as soon as “mid-decade.”</p>\n<p>Jonas’ preferred stocks to play the EV trend are&nbsp;General Motors (GM),Aptiv(APTV) and Tesla, all of which he rates Buy. Jonas also calls EV startup&nbsp;Fisker(FSR) his sleeper EV pick. And battery startup&nbsp;QuantumScape(QS) his “battery biotech” pick.</p>\n<p>Biotech stocks tend to have binary outcomes. They have big upside if drugs work and big downside is they don’t. That is how he thinks about Quantum: It is pioneering new battery technology that promises higher performance and lower costs. If it works, investors will be rewarded, but the company is years away from commercialization. Both Fisker and QuantumScape are Buy-rated, as well.</p>\n<p>His quintet of stocks has had a mixed year. General Motors and Aptiv have outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.The EV pure-play stocks—Tesla, Fisker and QuantumScape—have all lagged the broader market.</p>\n<p>GM and Aptiv stocks are up 52% and 20% year to date, respectively. Fisker stock has risen about 9%. Meanwhile, Tesla and QuantumScape shares are down 19% and 66%, respectively.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 21:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/can-higher-oil-prices-boost-ev-sales-maybe-51622809621?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil prices—were once a bullish boon for both EV sales and EV manufacturers’ stock prices.\nThat line of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/can-higher-oil-prices-boost-ev-sales-maybe-51622809621?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp.","GM":"通用汽车","APTV":"Aptiv PLC","FSR":"菲斯克","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/can-higher-oil-prices-boost-ev-sales-maybe-51622809621?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122646159","content_text":"Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil prices—were once a bullish boon for both EV sales and EV manufacturers’ stock prices.\nThat line of thinking fell out of favor as the EV industry matured. Consider Tesla (TSLA): the EV maker’s stock fell almost 12% in May, the same month the Colonial Pipeline was hacked, disrupting gasoline supplies, and oil prices rose more than 4%.\nHowever, as oil prices climb higher this year and continue to do so—oil prices are up another 3.7% in June—one Wall Street analyst is dusting off the old EV-oil trading playbook.\nWhy oil prices helped EV stocks isn’t hard to grasp. EVs are more expensive to purchase up-front than gasoline-powered automobiles. Rechargeable lithium ion batteries are far more expensive than gas tanks. However, it costs less to charge the batteries than to fill a gas tank. And higher oil prices mean higher gasoline prices, which could drive consumers into EVs.\nHigher oil prices helped boost Toyota Prius sales, which went from averaging roughly 140,000 a year in 2009 and 2010 to 240,000 between 2011 and 2013. Back then, oil prices averaged roughly $70 a barrel from 2009 to 2010, when Prius sales were averaging the lower number. Oil averaged roughly $95 a barrel from 2011 to 2013—the same time Prius sales increased.\nThat’s one example, but the oil price/EV sale trade has broken down in recent years. Don’t forget, oil prices dropped in 2020 while Tesla sales hit a record of about 500,00 units.\nMorgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas thinks a linkage between oil and EVs may reappear. He pointed out in a Wednesday report that higher oil prices make EVs relatively more attractive. That much is obvious, but he also thinks prices won’t lead governments to relax drilling restrictions or invest in refining capacity to drive down oil prices. Instead, Jonas believes, higher oil prices will accelerate government support for EVs. That’s important, but the biggest boost to the EV sector will come when EVs cost the same as gasoline-powered cars—something Jonas says could happen as soon as “mid-decade.”\nJonas’ preferred stocks to play the EV trend are General Motors (GM),Aptiv(APTV) and Tesla, all of which he rates Buy. Jonas also calls EV startup Fisker(FSR) his sleeper EV pick. And battery startup QuantumScape(QS) his “battery biotech” pick.\nBiotech stocks tend to have binary outcomes. They have big upside if drugs work and big downside is they don’t. That is how he thinks about Quantum: It is pioneering new battery technology that promises higher performance and lower costs. If it works, investors will be rewarded, but the company is years away from commercialization. Both Fisker and QuantumScape are Buy-rated, as well.\nHis quintet of stocks has had a mixed year. General Motors and Aptiv have outperformed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.The EV pure-play stocks—Tesla, Fisker and QuantumScape—have all lagged the broader market.\nGM and Aptiv stocks are up 52% and 20% year to date, respectively. Fisker stock has risen about 9%. Meanwhile, Tesla and QuantumScape shares are down 19% and 66%, respectively.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116400175,"gmtCreate":1622814188297,"gmtModify":1634097750397,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome&nbsp;","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116400175","repostId":"1122646159","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122646159","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622811802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122646159?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 21:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122646159","media":"Barrons","summary":"Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil","content":"<p>Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil prices—were once a bullish boon for both EV sales and EV manufacturers’ stock prices.</p>\n<p>That line of thinking fell out of favor as the EV industry matured. Consider Tesla (TSLA): the EV maker’s stock fell almost 12% in May, the same month the Colonial Pipeline was hacked, disrupting gasoline supplies, and oil prices rose more than 4%.</p>\n<p>However, as oil prices climb&nbsp;higher this year and continue to do so—oil prices are up another 3.7% in June—one Wall Street analyst is dusting off the old EV-oil trading playbook.</p>\n<p>Why oil prices helped EV stocks isn’t hard to grasp. EVs are more expensive to purchase up-front than gasoline-powered automobiles. Rechargeable lithium ion batteries are far more expensive than gas tanks.&nbsp;However,&nbsp;it costs less to charge the batteries than to fill a gas tank<b>.</b>&nbsp;And higher oil prices mean higher gasoline prices, which could drive consumers into EVs.</p>\n<p>Higher oil prices helped boost Toyota Prius sales, which went from averaging roughly 140,000 a year in 2009 and 2010 to 240,000 between 2011 and 2013. Back then, oil prices averaged roughly $70 a barrel from 2009 to 2010, when Prius sales were averaging the lower number. Oil averaged roughly $95 a barrel from 2011 to 2013—the same time Prius sales increased.</p>\n<p>That’s one example, but the oil price/EV sale trade has broken down in recent years. Don’t forget, oil prices dropped in 2020 while Tesla sales hit a record of about 500,00 units.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analyst&nbsp;Adam Jonas&nbsp;thinks a linkage between oil and EVs may reappear. He pointed out in a Wednesday report that higher oil prices make EVs relatively more attractive. That much is obvious, but he also thinks prices won’t lead governments to relax drilling restrictions or invest in refining capacity to drive down oil prices. Instead, Jonas believes, higher oil prices will accelerate government support for EVs. That’s important, but the biggest boost to the EV sector will come when EVs cost the same as gasoline-powered cars—something Jonas says could happen as soon as “mid-decade.”</p>\n<p>Jonas’ preferred stocks to play the EV trend are&nbsp;General Motors (GM),Aptiv(APTV) and Tesla, all of which he rates Buy. Jonas also calls EV startup&nbsp;Fisker(FSR) his sleeper EV pick. And battery startup&nbsp;QuantumScape(QS) his “battery biotech” pick.</p>\n<p>Biotech stocks tend to have binary outcomes. They have big upside if drugs work and big downside is they don’t. That is how he thinks about Quantum: It is pioneering new battery technology that promises higher performance and lower costs. If it works, investors will be rewarded, but the company is years away from commercialization. Both Fisker and QuantumScape are Buy-rated, as well.</p>\n<p>His quintet of stocks has had a mixed year. General Motors and Aptiv have outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.The EV pure-play stocks—Tesla, Fisker and QuantumScape—have all lagged the broader market.</p>\n<p>GM and Aptiv stocks are up 52% and 20% year to date, respectively. Fisker stock has risen about 9%. Meanwhile, Tesla and QuantumScape shares are down 19% and 66%, respectively.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Higher Oil Prices Boost EV Sales? Maybe.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 21:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/can-higher-oil-prices-boost-ev-sales-maybe-51622809621?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil prices—were once a bullish boon for both EV sales and EV manufacturers’ stock prices.\nThat line of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/can-higher-oil-prices-boost-ev-sales-maybe-51622809621?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp.","GM":"通用汽车","APTV":"Aptiv PLC","FSR":"菲斯克","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/can-higher-oil-prices-boost-ev-sales-maybe-51622809621?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122646159","content_text":"Higher oil prices—back when electric vehicles were new and investors had never seen triple-digit oil prices—were once a bullish boon for both EV sales and EV manufacturers’ stock prices.\nThat line of thinking fell out of favor as the EV industry matured. Consider Tesla (TSLA): the EV maker’s stock fell almost 12% in May, the same month the Colonial Pipeline was hacked, disrupting gasoline supplies, and oil prices rose more than 4%.\nHowever, as oil prices climb higher this year and continue to do so—oil prices are up another 3.7% in June—one Wall Street analyst is dusting off the old EV-oil trading playbook.\nWhy oil prices helped EV stocks isn’t hard to grasp. EVs are more expensive to purchase up-front than gasoline-powered automobiles. Rechargeable lithium ion batteries are far more expensive than gas tanks. However, it costs less to charge the batteries than to fill a gas tank. And higher oil prices mean higher gasoline prices, which could drive consumers into EVs.\nHigher oil prices helped boost Toyota Prius sales, which went from averaging roughly 140,000 a year in 2009 and 2010 to 240,000 between 2011 and 2013. Back then, oil prices averaged roughly $70 a barrel from 2009 to 2010, when Prius sales were averaging the lower number. Oil averaged roughly $95 a barrel from 2011 to 2013—the same time Prius sales increased.\nThat’s one example, but the oil price/EV sale trade has broken down in recent years. Don’t forget, oil prices dropped in 2020 while Tesla sales hit a record of about 500,00 units.\nMorgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas thinks a linkage between oil and EVs may reappear. He pointed out in a Wednesday report that higher oil prices make EVs relatively more attractive. That much is obvious, but he also thinks prices won’t lead governments to relax drilling restrictions or invest in refining capacity to drive down oil prices. Instead, Jonas believes, higher oil prices will accelerate government support for EVs. That’s important, but the biggest boost to the EV sector will come when EVs cost the same as gasoline-powered cars—something Jonas says could happen as soon as “mid-decade.”\nJonas’ preferred stocks to play the EV trend are General Motors (GM),Aptiv(APTV) and Tesla, all of which he rates Buy. Jonas also calls EV startup Fisker(FSR) his sleeper EV pick. And battery startup QuantumScape(QS) his “battery biotech” pick.\nBiotech stocks tend to have binary outcomes. They have big upside if drugs work and big downside is they don’t. That is how he thinks about Quantum: It is pioneering new battery technology that promises higher performance and lower costs. If it works, investors will be rewarded, but the company is years away from commercialization. Both Fisker and QuantumScape are Buy-rated, as well.\nHis quintet of stocks has had a mixed year. General Motors and Aptiv have outperformed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.The EV pure-play stocks—Tesla, Fisker and QuantumScape—have all lagged the broader market.\nGM and Aptiv stocks are up 52% and 20% year to date, respectively. Fisker stock has risen about 9%. Meanwhile, Tesla and QuantumScape shares are down 19% and 66%, respectively.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116577906,"gmtCreate":1622814161105,"gmtModify":1634097751422,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To&nbsp;the moon !!!","listText":"To&nbsp;the moon !!!","text":"To the moon !!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116577906","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>\n <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>\n <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock Price</b></p>\n<p>Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p>\n<p><b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p>\n<p>Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p>\n<p>To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's business growth</b></p>\n<p>Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p>\n<p>On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p>\n<p>Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p>\n<p>This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p>\n<p><b>Apple's future valuation</b></p>\n<p>AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p>\n<p><b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p>\n<p>Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p>\n<p>AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p>\n<p>Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 15:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118226688,"gmtCreate":1622734539244,"gmtModify":1634098553960,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh wow. Amazing","listText":"Oh wow. Amazing","text":"Oh wow. Amazing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118226688","repostId":"1160289276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118228664,"gmtCreate":1622734476258,"gmtModify":1634098554656,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold!!!","listText":"Hold!!!","text":"Hold!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118228664","repostId":"2140422463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118221483,"gmtCreate":1622734394742,"gmtModify":1634098555251,"author":{"id":"3583491856207258","authorId":"3583491856207258","name":"Songern","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60b4594f20c237ba8b204ff95a6c27a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583491856207258","authorIdStr":"3583491856207258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"HODL!!","listText":"HODL!!","text":"HODL!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118221483","repostId":"1160289276","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}