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- BalancingActBalancingAct
  ·2021-12-24
  Don't be a bigger fool whenever motley Fool recommends...do your homework n don't rush to buy now...wait n be patient for price to move back down.
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- BalancingActBalancingAct
  ·2021-12-24
  Have to be careful whenever motley Fool recommends. Still do your homework n no need to rush in to buy now
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,189 评论
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- BalancingActBalancingAct
  ·2021-12-23
  Great, will certainly support the undervalued share and slowly climb back to HKD 500
  Tencent to declare interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of class a ordinary shares of JD.com
  Tencent announced today that it has resolved to declare a special interim dividend in the form of a
  Tencent to declare interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of class a ordinary shares of JD.com
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- BalancingActBalancingAct
  ·2021-11-08
  Well said...all these analysts tend to twist and rely too much on stats data which we know can be interpreted in a number of ways if you know how to present your side of the story. Every year is different and one needs to feel the ground as it plays out not after it played out then give reason or rationale ,"I said it so" . Happy investing and trading
  Opinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth
  November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be ex
  Opinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth
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Don't be a bigger fool whenever motley Fool recommends...do your homework n don't rush to buy now...wait n be patient for price to move back down.","listText":"Don't be a bigger fool whenever motley Fool recommends...do your homework n don't rush to buy now...wait n be patient for price to move back down.","text":"Don't be a bigger fool whenever motley Fool recommends...do your homework n don't rush to buy now...wait n be patient for price to move back down.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698398416","repostId":"2193063143","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698391034,"gmtCreate":1640301280977,"gmtModify":1640310227850,"author":{"id":"4094806265294780","authorId":"4094806265294780","name":"BalancingAct","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094806265294780","authorIdStr":"4094806265294780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Have to be careful whenever motley Fool recommends. Still do your homework n no need to rush in to buy now","listText":"Have to be careful whenever motley Fool recommends. Still do your homework n no need to rush in to buy now","text":"Have to be careful whenever motley Fool recommends. Still do your homework n no need to rush in to buy now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698391034","repostId":"2193063143","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691560901,"gmtCreate":1640221343056,"gmtModify":1640221402813,"author":{"id":"4094806265294780","authorId":"4094806265294780","name":"BalancingAct","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094806265294780","authorIdStr":"4094806265294780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great, will certainly support the undervalued share and slowly climb back to HKD 500","listText":"Great, will certainly support the undervalued share and slowly climb back to HKD 500","text":"Great, will certainly support the undervalued share and slowly climb back to HKD 500","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691560901","repostId":"1113181515","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113181515","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640219427,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113181515?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 08:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tencent to declare interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of class a ordinary shares of JD.com","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113181515","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tencent announced today that it has resolved to declare a special interim dividend in the form of a ","content":"<p>Tencent announced today&nbsp;that it has resolved to declare a special interim dividend in the form of a distribution in specie of 457,326,671 Class A ordinary shares of JD.com (assuming there is no change in the total number of issued Shares from the date of this announcement to the Record Date) indirectly held by the Company through Huang River to the Shareholders whose names appear on the register of members of the Company on the Record Date in proportion to their then respective shareholdings in the Company on the basis of 1 Class A ordinary share of JD.com for every 21 Shares held by the Qualifying Shareholders, being rounded down to the nearest whole number of JD.com Shares.</p>\n<p>The exact total number of the JD.com Shares to be distributed by the Company is subject to such adjustments where appropriate and necessary in order to give effect to the Distribution in Specie on the basis of 1 Class A ordinary share of JD.com for every 21 Shares held on theRecord Date and such other arrangements in relation to the Distribution in Specie as set out in this announcement.</p>\n<p>Non-Qualifying Shareholders will not be entitled to receive the JD.com Shares and will instead receive cash in lieu of the JD.com Shares in respect of the Shares held by them on the basis of 1 Class A ordinary share of JD.com for every 21 Shares held on the Record Date.</p>\n<p>For determining entitlements to the Distribution in Specie, the register of members and transfer book of the Company will be closed from 24 January 2022, Monday to 25 January 2022, Tuesday, both days inclusive, during which period no transfer of Shares will be registered. In order to qualify for the Distribution in Specie, any document in respect of the transfer of Shares accompanied by the relevant share certificates must be lodged with the Company’s Hong Kong branch share registrar and transfer office, Computershare Hong Kong Investor Services Limited, at Shops 1712-1716, 17th Floor, Hopewell Centre, 183 Queen’s Road East, Wan Chai, Hong Kong for registration not later than 4:30 p.m. on 21 January 2022, Friday. The last day for dealing in Shares on the Stock Exchange with entitlements to the Distribution in Specie is expected to be 19 January 2022, Wednesday.</p>\n<p>JD.com&nbsp;also&nbsp;announced&nbsp;same things.JD.com&nbsp;is aware that Tencent Holdings Limited (“Tencent”), that currently owns indirectly approximately 17.0% of the Company’s outstanding shares, announced that it will distribute approximately 460 million Class A ordinary shares of the Company owned by Tencent to its shareholders. Immediately following the distribution, Tencent’s shareholding in the Company will be approximately 2.3%, and the shareholders of Tencent who receive shares of the Company in the distribution will become the shareholders of the Company. The Company and Tencent will continue to maintain their mutually beneficial business relationship, including their ongoing strategic partnership agreement.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tencent to declare interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of class a ordinary shares of JD.com</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTencent to declare interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of class a ordinary shares of JD.com\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-23 08:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tencent announced today&nbsp;that it has resolved to declare a special interim dividend in the form of a distribution in specie of 457,326,671 Class A ordinary shares of JD.com (assuming there is no change in the total number of issued Shares from the date of this announcement to the Record Date) indirectly held by the Company through Huang River to the Shareholders whose names appear on the register of members of the Company on the Record Date in proportion to their then respective shareholdings in the Company on the basis of 1 Class A ordinary share of JD.com for every 21 Shares held by the Qualifying Shareholders, being rounded down to the nearest whole number of JD.com Shares.</p>\n<p>The exact total number of the JD.com Shares to be distributed by the Company is subject to such adjustments where appropriate and necessary in order to give effect to the Distribution in Specie on the basis of 1 Class A ordinary share of JD.com for every 21 Shares held on theRecord Date and such other arrangements in relation to the Distribution in Specie as set out in this announcement.</p>\n<p>Non-Qualifying Shareholders will not be entitled to receive the JD.com Shares and will instead receive cash in lieu of the JD.com Shares in respect of the Shares held by them on the basis of 1 Class A ordinary share of JD.com for every 21 Shares held on the Record Date.</p>\n<p>For determining entitlements to the Distribution in Specie, the register of members and transfer book of the Company will be closed from 24 January 2022, Monday to 25 January 2022, Tuesday, both days inclusive, during which period no transfer of Shares will be registered. In order to qualify for the Distribution in Specie, any document in respect of the transfer of Shares accompanied by the relevant share certificates must be lodged with the Company’s Hong Kong branch share registrar and transfer office, Computershare Hong Kong Investor Services Limited, at Shops 1712-1716, 17th Floor, Hopewell Centre, 183 Queen’s Road East, Wan Chai, Hong Kong for registration not later than 4:30 p.m. on 21 January 2022, Friday. The last day for dealing in Shares on the Stock Exchange with entitlements to the Distribution in Specie is expected to be 19 January 2022, Wednesday.</p>\n<p>JD.com&nbsp;also&nbsp;announced&nbsp;same things.JD.com&nbsp;is aware that Tencent Holdings Limited (“Tencent”), that currently owns indirectly approximately 17.0% of the Company’s outstanding shares, announced that it will distribute approximately 460 million Class A ordinary shares of the Company owned by Tencent to its shareholders. Immediately following the distribution, Tencent’s shareholding in the Company will be approximately 2.3%, and the shareholders of Tencent who receive shares of the Company in the distribution will become the shareholders of the Company. The Company and Tencent will continue to maintain their mutually beneficial business relationship, including their ongoing strategic partnership agreement.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","09618":"京东集团-SW","JD":"京东"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113181515","content_text":"Tencent announced today that it has resolved to declare a special interim dividend in the form of a distribution in specie of 457,326,671 Class A ordinary shares of JD.com (assuming there is no change in the total number of issued Shares from the date of this announcement to the Record Date) indirectly held by the Company through Huang River to the Shareholders whose names appear on the register of members of the Company on the Record Date in proportion to their then respective shareholdings in the Company on the basis of 1 Class A ordinary share of JD.com for every 21 Shares held by the Qualifying Shareholders, being rounded down to the nearest whole number of JD.com Shares.\nThe exact total number of the JD.com Shares to be distributed by the Company is subject to such adjustments where appropriate and necessary in order to give effect to the Distribution in Specie on the basis of 1 Class A ordinary share of JD.com for every 21 Shares held on theRecord Date and such other arrangements in relation to the Distribution in Specie as set out in this announcement.\nNon-Qualifying Shareholders will not be entitled to receive the JD.com Shares and will instead receive cash in lieu of the JD.com Shares in respect of the Shares held by them on the basis of 1 Class A ordinary share of JD.com for every 21 Shares held on the Record Date.\nFor determining entitlements to the Distribution in Specie, the register of members and transfer book of the Company will be closed from 24 January 2022, Monday to 25 January 2022, Tuesday, both days inclusive, during which period no transfer of Shares will be registered. In order to qualify for the Distribution in Specie, any document in respect of the transfer of Shares accompanied by the relevant share certificates must be lodged with the Company’s Hong Kong branch share registrar and transfer office, Computershare Hong Kong Investor Services Limited, at Shops 1712-1716, 17th Floor, Hopewell Centre, 183 Queen’s Road East, Wan Chai, Hong Kong for registration not later than 4:30 p.m. on 21 January 2022, Friday. The last day for dealing in Shares on the Stock Exchange with entitlements to the Distribution in Specie is expected to be 19 January 2022, Wednesday.\nJD.com also announced same things.JD.com is aware that Tencent Holdings Limited (“Tencent”), that currently owns indirectly approximately 17.0% of the Company’s outstanding shares, announced that it will distribute approximately 460 million Class A ordinary shares of the Company owned by Tencent to its shareholders. Immediately following the distribution, Tencent’s shareholding in the Company will be approximately 2.3%, and the shareholders of Tencent who receive shares of the Company in the distribution will become the shareholders of the Company. The Company and Tencent will continue to maintain their mutually beneficial business relationship, including their ongoing strategic partnership agreement.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845580155,"gmtCreate":1636350934036,"gmtModify":1636350934036,"author":{"id":"4094806265294780","authorId":"4094806265294780","name":"BalancingAct","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094806265294780","authorIdStr":"4094806265294780"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Well said...all these analysts tend to twist and rely too much on stats data which we know can be interpreted in a number of ways if you know how to present your side of the story. Every year is different and one needs to feel the ground as it plays out not after it played out then give reason or rationale ,\"I said it so\" . Happy investing and trading","listText":"Well said...all these analysts tend to twist and rely too much on stats data which we know can be interpreted in a number of ways if you know how to present your side of the story. Every year is different and one needs to feel the ground as it plays out not after it played out then give reason or rationale ,\"I said it so\" . Happy investing and trading","text":"Well said...all these analysts tend to twist and rely too much on stats data which we know can be interpreted in a number of ways if you know how to present your side of the story. Every year is different and one needs to feel the ground as it plays out not after it played out then give reason or rationale ,\"I said it so\" . Happy investing and trading","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845580155","repostId":"1156505839","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156505839","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636344323,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156505839?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-08 12:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156505839","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be ex","content":"<p>November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be expected to gain 0.6%, or about 220 points.</p>\n<p>Such a gain would take the U.S. stock market bellwether to around the 36,040 level, versus the 35,820 level at which it finished the month of October. Were you hoping for more? After all, the Dow rose almost 6% in October.</p>\n<p>You shouldn’t be surprised. The Dow’s expected gain this month is the same as it is every other month of the calendar. There is no reason for November to be any better or worse than the historical average.</p>\n<p>It’s important to point this out to counter those on Wall Street who mine the historical data in search of “uncanny” seasonal patterns. The only real investment lesson we can learn from their efforts is that if you torture the data long and hard enough you can make it say almost anything.</p>\n<p>Consider the claims that the chief investment officer of a major Wall Street firm emailed to clients last week: “November has been quite strong historically. In fact, since 1950, and the past 10 years, it is the best month of the year, while it ranks second over the past 20 years and during a post-election year. November is the best month of the year, but it doesn’t seem to get nearly as much love as you’d think. We all assume December is the best month, but November is actually better and gets very little fanfare.”</p>\n<p>This raises several red flags. Why choose the period since 1950, as opposed to, say, 1960 or 1940? Why focus on just the past 10- or 20 years and not the past 13 or 23 or 27?</p>\n<p>Unless there is a compelling theoretical reason to focus on a subset of the historical data, doing so suggests that deliberate data mining is going on.</p>\n<p>The Dow offers investors monthly data extending back to its creation in May 1896. Over the ensuing 125 years, November’s average return ranks 5th&nbsp;for all years, as you can see in the chart below. November is slightly above average, but not at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, it isn’t even close.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a13b9bba8ec5e47cf1c0ed3172447f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>How about November being the second-best month in post-presidential election years? Again, this is true for only <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> subset of the historical data. Viewed over the Dow’s entire history, November is in 6th&nbsp;place for average performance during post-presidential election years. In other words, its performance rank in such years is actually slightly worse than in the entire sample.</p>\n<p>I don’t mean to pick on this particular well-known Wall Street CIO, which is why I am not naming him. He actually is in good company.</p>\n<p><b>Playing the odds</b></p>\n<p>There’s an even more fundamental problem with this data mining, beyond their lack of statistical significance: To get historical odds reasonably in your favor when betting on a seasonal pattern, you would have to bet on it consistently many times in a row — several dozen at a minimum. So when betting on a pattern that comes around only once every year, the intelligent bet lasts several decades. The odds of success in any given year are only barely above a coin flip.</p>\n<p>In all Novembers since 1896, for example, the Dow has risen 63% of the time. Even assuming the future will be like the past, a bet that the stock market will gain ground in November will be wrong slightly more than one out of every three years. That’s far too much risk to justify throwing caution to the wind.</p>\n<p>Ideally, from a statistical point of view, you can find statistically significant patterns that are extremely short term. That would allow you, with even a relatively brief holding period, to bet on those patterns a sufficient number of times to get the odds decently in your favor.</p>\n<p>This, for example, is the secret behind the phenomenally successful Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies, which (even after fees) beat the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.37%between 1988 and 2018 by the incredible margin of 39.2% annualized return to 10.0%. (The fund is not available to outside investors.)</p>\n<p>Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reportsthat the odds of success of any of Medallion Fund’s individual trades have been 50.75%, only slightly higher than 50%. But when coupled with high-frequency trading, those odds are enough to produce a highly profitable strategy. Medallion’s “strategy involved constantly opening and covering thousands of short-term positions, both long and short… Taken over millions of trades that [50.75%] percentage allowed the firm to make billions,” Cornell wrote.</p>\n<p>Remember this the next time you read about an alleged seasonal pattern in the stock market. Even when that pattern is statistically significant, which is rare, it won’t help you much over the long term.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-08 12:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-will-tell-you-that-stocks-shine-in-november-but-heres-the-unvarnished-truth-11635872739?mod=home-page><strong>Market Wacth</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be expected to gain 0.6%, or about 220 points.\nSuch a gain would take the U.S. stock market bellwether to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-will-tell-you-that-stocks-shine-in-november-but-heres-the-unvarnished-truth-11635872739?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-will-tell-you-that-stocks-shine-in-november-but-heres-the-unvarnished-truth-11635872739?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156505839","content_text":"November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be expected to gain 0.6%, or about 220 points.\nSuch a gain would take the U.S. stock market bellwether to around the 36,040 level, versus the 35,820 level at which it finished the month of October. Were you hoping for more? After all, the Dow rose almost 6% in October.\nYou shouldn’t be surprised. The Dow’s expected gain this month is the same as it is every other month of the calendar. There is no reason for November to be any better or worse than the historical average.\nIt’s important to point this out to counter those on Wall Street who mine the historical data in search of “uncanny” seasonal patterns. The only real investment lesson we can learn from their efforts is that if you torture the data long and hard enough you can make it say almost anything.\nConsider the claims that the chief investment officer of a major Wall Street firm emailed to clients last week: “November has been quite strong historically. In fact, since 1950, and the past 10 years, it is the best month of the year, while it ranks second over the past 20 years and during a post-election year. November is the best month of the year, but it doesn’t seem to get nearly as much love as you’d think. We all assume December is the best month, but November is actually better and gets very little fanfare.”\nThis raises several red flags. Why choose the period since 1950, as opposed to, say, 1960 or 1940? Why focus on just the past 10- or 20 years and not the past 13 or 23 or 27?\nUnless there is a compelling theoretical reason to focus on a subset of the historical data, doing so suggests that deliberate data mining is going on.\nThe Dow offers investors monthly data extending back to its creation in May 1896. Over the ensuing 125 years, November’s average return ranks 5th for all years, as you can see in the chart below. November is slightly above average, but not at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, it isn’t even close.\n\nHow about November being the second-best month in post-presidential election years? Again, this is true for only one subset of the historical data. Viewed over the Dow’s entire history, November is in 6th place for average performance during post-presidential election years. In other words, its performance rank in such years is actually slightly worse than in the entire sample.\nI don’t mean to pick on this particular well-known Wall Street CIO, which is why I am not naming him. He actually is in good company.\nPlaying the odds\nThere’s an even more fundamental problem with this data mining, beyond their lack of statistical significance: To get historical odds reasonably in your favor when betting on a seasonal pattern, you would have to bet on it consistently many times in a row — several dozen at a minimum. So when betting on a pattern that comes around only once every year, the intelligent bet lasts several decades. The odds of success in any given year are only barely above a coin flip.\nIn all Novembers since 1896, for example, the Dow has risen 63% of the time. Even assuming the future will be like the past, a bet that the stock market will gain ground in November will be wrong slightly more than one out of every three years. That’s far too much risk to justify throwing caution to the wind.\nIdeally, from a statistical point of view, you can find statistically significant patterns that are extremely short term. That would allow you, with even a relatively brief holding period, to bet on those patterns a sufficient number of times to get the odds decently in your favor.\nThis, for example, is the secret behind the phenomenally successful Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies, which (even after fees) beat the S&P 500SPX,+0.37%between 1988 and 2018 by the incredible margin of 39.2% annualized return to 10.0%. (The fund is not available to outside investors.)\nBrad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reportsthat the odds of success of any of Medallion Fund’s individual trades have been 50.75%, only slightly higher than 50%. But when coupled with high-frequency trading, those odds are enough to produce a highly profitable strategy. Medallion’s “strategy involved constantly opening and covering thousands of short-term positions, both long and short… Taken over millions of trades that [50.75%] percentage allowed the firm to make billions,” Cornell wrote.\nRemember this the next time you read about an alleged seasonal pattern in the stock market. Even when that pattern is statistically significant, which is rare, it won’t help you much over the long term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000432","authorId":"9000000000000432","name":"PagRobinson","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f27744c1fabf17b5f44122ab53e7da10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000432","authorIdStr":"9000000000000432"},"content":"Analysts will analyze past data to give their assessment and views on the company, and then guide their investment in the future. I think the views of analysts are very important. After all, no one can accurately predict the change of stock price.","text":"Analysts will analyze past data to give their assessment and views on the company, and then guide their investment in the future. I think the views of analysts are very important. After all, no one can accurately predict the change of stock price.","html":"Analysts will analyze past data to give their assessment and views on the company, and then guide their investment in the future. I think the views of analysts are very important. After all, no one can accurately predict the change of stock price."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}