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2021-06-24

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Fed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk

Ugly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under

Fed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk

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UNTIL this happened...\n<blockquote>\n The U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think,said Dallas Fed President&nbsp;Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think\n we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n “I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than laterso that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.”\n</blockquote>\nAnd the selling began sending The Dow, S&amp;P and Nasdaq into the red for the day...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff6694249b9bc71839f52b6b4221e57\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"761\">\nSince just before the FOMC statement last week, The Dow and Small Caps are in the red and Nasdaq the big outperformer...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ab62307fd701a7ab69ea9d772ed6ea\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"667\">\nVIX fell to a 14 handle intraday...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cceb65d19453c8bd0cec9f673a2a99\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\">\nThis is how quiet it was...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bd1728d85768e3bc4ec5e53ee63fe0\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\">Source: Bloomberg\nTreasury yields also went nowhere fast, eventually rising 1-2bps across the curve on the day (10Y now unchanged from pre-FOMC)...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fc3af45e9ec12cc01327005d47223c\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"516\">Source: Bloomberg\nAnd while the dollar chopped around, it ended spectacularly unch...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002248d3c60d4616effa79b22bcbba39\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"514\">Source: Bloomberg\nThere were some fireworks of note.\nFannie &amp; Freddie were destroyed by SCOTUS ruling...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d7353fdc764bafc58ecf791e51d0d0d\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\">Source: Bloomberg\nCrypto ended very marginally higher after giving back some overnight gains. Bitcoin briefly touched $35k before sliding...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348d98ab45cf55f88e39c2ccbbb76eb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"517\">Source: Bloomberg\nWTI whipped higher and lower on OPEC+ production, inventories, and weak data...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43b39fa8873078835dc92bf743a297bd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"785\">\nGold followed a similar trajectory - ending unch...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11d5501a7275e2733649b66a1a2b514\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\">Finally,&nbsp;we note that the real measure of market fear - implied correlation - has collapsed, finally reverting to pre-COVID levels...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6258cfa0f1351cffb809304fb9436c80\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"530\">Source: Bloomberg\nThe implied correlation,a topic we have discussed in the past at length, quantifies the difference between the index's volatility and the summation of the underlying volatility of the names in an index. In a nutshell,the implied correlation measures the relative demand for instant liquid index macro protection relative to its underlying names(a slower less liquid way to protect yourself). Thehigher the correlation, the greater the risk of a very significant systemic downside move(since correlations tend to approach 1 when systemically bad events occur).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd8ff388a778bddfd2c365dc4c45b55\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"506\">Source: Bloomberg\nBy implicitly measuring the market's demand for this relative protection - and its implicit downside risk sentiment -implied correlation is much more applicable as a measure of investor sentiment... which right now is about as complacent as its ever been.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 14:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dollar-shrug-dismal-data-oddly-quiet-day>zerohedge</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nUgly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under the surface of the \"excellent\" recovery andthat \"hope\"-filled gap between 'soft' and hard data is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dollar-shrug-dismal-data-oddly-quiet-day\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dollar-shrug-dismal-data-oddly-quiet-day","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149718989","content_text":"Ugly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under the surface of the \"excellent\" recovery andthat \"hope\"-filled gap between 'soft' and hard data is set to slump again...\nSource: Bloomberg\nBut markets just shrugged it off as the echoes of Powell's dovish promises bounced around their frontal cortexes.\nWhile Small Caps did their manic thing; The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all trod water all day in a very narrow range... UNTIL this happened...\n\nThe U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think,said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.\n\n\n “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think\n we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News.\n\n\n “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said.\n\n\n“I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than laterso that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.”\n\nAnd the selling began sending The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq into the red for the day...\n\nSince just before the FOMC statement last week, The Dow and Small Caps are in the red and Nasdaq the big outperformer...\n\nVIX fell to a 14 handle intraday...\n\nThis is how quiet it was...\nSource: Bloomberg\nTreasury yields also went nowhere fast, eventually rising 1-2bps across the curve on the day (10Y now unchanged from pre-FOMC)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nAnd while the dollar chopped around, it ended spectacularly unch...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThere were some fireworks of note.\nFannie & Freddie were destroyed by SCOTUS ruling...\nSource: Bloomberg\nCrypto ended very marginally higher after giving back some overnight gains. Bitcoin briefly touched $35k before sliding...\nSource: Bloomberg\nWTI whipped higher and lower on OPEC+ production, inventories, and weak data...\n\nGold followed a similar trajectory - ending unch...\nFinally, we note that the real measure of market fear - implied correlation - has collapsed, finally reverting to pre-COVID levels...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThe implied correlation,a topic we have discussed in the past at length, quantifies the difference between the index's volatility and the summation of the underlying volatility of the names in an index. In a nutshell,the implied correlation measures the relative demand for instant liquid index macro protection relative to its underlying names(a slower less liquid way to protect yourself). Thehigher the correlation, the greater the risk of a very significant systemic downside move(since correlations tend to approach 1 when systemically bad events occur).\nSource: Bloomberg\nBy implicitly measuring the market's demand for this relative protection - and its implicit downside risk sentiment -implied correlation is much more applicable as a measure of investor sentiment... which right now is about as complacent as its ever been.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}