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TriciaChang
2021-12-17

Traders bet Fed will not raise rates as aggressively as forecast<blockquote>交易员押注美联储不会像预期那样激进加息</blockquote>

Markets dismiss central bank guidance amid investor uncertainty over US economic prospects Fed chair

Traders bet Fed will not raise rates as aggressively as forecast<blockquote>交易员押注美联储不会像预期那样激进加息</blockquote>

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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTraders bet Fed will not raise rates as aggressively as forecast<blockquote>交易员押注美联储不会像预期那样激进加息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Financial Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-17 15:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Markets dismiss central bank guidance amid investor uncertainty over US economic prospects Fed chair Jay Powell said that, with inflation as high as it is, ‘we have to make policy in real time’ © ...</p><p><blockquote><div>由于投资者对美国经济前景不确定，市场对央行的指引不屑一顾。美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔表示，鉴于通胀如此之高，“我们必须实时制定政策”...©</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b16f1969-c524-4aba-8560-730ab1ccd511\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b16f1969-c524-4aba-8560-730ab1ccd511\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b16f1969-c524-4aba-8560-730ab1ccd511\">Financial Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.ft.com/content/b16f1969-c524-4aba-8560-730ab1ccd511","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169429645","content_text":"Markets dismiss central bank guidance amid investor uncertainty over US economic prospects\nFed chair Jay Powell said that, with inflation as high as it is, ‘we have to make policy in real time’ © Bloomberg\nTraders dialled back their expectations on Thursday for how far the Federal Reserve would be able to lift interest rates, dismissing the US central bank’s own guidance as it tries to rein in inflation during the pandemic.\nTrading in futures markets, which offers insight into how investors are positioning for changes to Fed interest rate policy in the years ahead, showed that money managers expected the US central bank’s overnight rate to rise to just 1.27 per cent by the end of 2023.\nThat was a full 0.11 percentage points below the 1.38 per cent rate implied on Wednesday, and compared to Fed policymaker’s projections for 1.6 per cent released yesterday.\nBeyond 2023, trading in futures contracts for Sofr (the secured overnight financing rate) and eurodollars suggested the Fed would have trouble lifting rates any higher, in contrast to the views of a majority of Fed officials that interest rates would eventually climb to about 2.5 per cent.\nImplied rates on Sofr and eurodollar contracts between 2024 and 2026 topped out at about 1.42 per cent, down from 1.5 a day prior.\n\nThe division between the markets and the Fed underlines the uncertainty investors have about the prospects for the US economy in the years ahead, as well as how aggressively the US central bank will need to act to tame inflation that last month rose by its fastest pace since 1982.\nThe Fed said on Wednesday it would more quickly remove pandemic-era stimulus and is ready to lift interest rates to combat inflation given the recovery in the labour market. Jay Powell, chair of the central bank, said that, with “inflation as high as it is, we have to make policy in real time”.\nThe so-called dot plot of interest rate predictions from individual Fed governors published on Wednesday showed three quarter-point rate rises in 2022 followed by another three in 2023.\nInvestors, by contrast, are now betting that a faster tightening cycle in 2022 could lead to fewer rate rises in the years ahead.\n“The most logical conclusion is that the market just doesn’t believe the Fed will ever get past 1.5 per cent,” said Tom Graff, head of international fixed income at Brown Advisory. “With the Fed apparently ready to hike in early 2022, the market is determining that will result in fewer hikes total.”\n\nAlthough a tightening of monetary policy is expected to tamp down inflation, some investors worry it may begin to crimp economic growth, putting a cap on how high the Fed can raise rates. Traders and investors also warned that the rapid shifts prompted by the pandemic, including the quick spread of the Omicron variant, could complicate the Fed’s plans.\n“We think the moves may be driven by market concerns over Covid,” Gennadiy Goldberg, US rates strategist at TD Securities, said about the moves in short-term funding markets.\n“There has been a significant increase in mentions of returns to offices being put on hold and holiday parties being cancelled, so investors may be concerned about the impact of Omicron on the economic recovery,” he added.\nIf the Fed’s dot-plot vision is realised, it would also put the US interest rate policy out of sync with some other big economies, most notably the EU. The European Central Bank said on Thursday it had ruled out the possibility of raising interest rates in 2022 despite higher inflation.\n“It is hard to reconcile three to four Fed rate increases versus none for the ECB,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3476,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}