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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-30
  Pike it
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  611 1
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-30
  Google talkin sheet
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  611 评论
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-30
  Need likes
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  375 评论
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-29
  Sell n like
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-29
  Like it brah
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-28
  Like pls thx
  Microsoft scores record quarterly profit on cloud boost
  (Reuters) -Microsoft Corp posted its most profitable quarter on Tuesday, beating Wall Street expecta
  Microsoft scores record quarterly profit on cloud boost
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-27
  Goinf to zero yo
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  571 评论
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-27
  Like yo netflixker
  Netflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value
  Summary Our forecasts are based purely on fundamentals. We expect Netflix to see margin expansion g
  Netflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value
  600 评论
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-27
  Ey lik pls
  How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013
  In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slow
  How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-27
  Yo like pls
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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brah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801747394","repostId":"2155729009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803198754,"gmtCreate":1627427134578,"gmtModify":1633765219200,"author":{"id":"3587023056098177","authorId":"3587023056098177","name":"jenx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c2ebfc14a61dc15dd098a40cd6a5e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587023056098177","authorIdStr":"3587023056098177"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls thx","listText":"Like pls thx","text":"Like pls thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803198754","repostId":"1155220013","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155220013","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627426975,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155220013?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 07:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft scores record quarterly profit on cloud boost","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155220013","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Microsoft Corp posted its most profitable quarter on Tuesday, beating Wall Street expecta","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Microsoft Corp posted its most profitable quarter on Tuesday, beating Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings, as demand soared for the software giant’s cloud-based services.</p>\n<p>Its shares rose&nbsp;nearly 1% in after-hours trading, following the company’s year-to-date run of 30% that left investors with high expectations for the quarter.</p>\n<p>The pandemic-driven shift to remote work has boosted consumer appetite for cloud-based computing, helping companies including Microsoft, Amazon.com Inc’s cloud unit and Alphabet Inc’s Google Cloud.</p>\n<p>Revenue in its “Intelligent Cloud” segment rose 30% to $17.4 billion, with 51% growth in its Azure cloud-computing business, in the fourth quarter ended June 30. Analysts had expected 43.1% growth in Azure, according to consensus data from Visible Alpha.</p>\n<p>“It’s a very impressive report from Microsoft with the company easily surpassing expectations on the performance of almost all business units,” said Haris Anwar, senior analyst at Investing.com.</p>\n<p>He noted Azure’s growth and strong demand for the company’s legacy Office and software products.</p>\n<p>“That said, Microsoft’s stock has made a big run since the beginning of the pandemic, and is trading at rich multiples,” Anwar said. “After such a powerful rally, its shares may take a breather, especially when investors are still unclear how the demand scenario will evolve in the post-pandemic environment.”</p>\n<p>Microsoft’s market capitalization stands at nearly $2.2 trillion, fueling concerns among some analysts that it may be overvalued. The stock has climbed nearly 30% so far this year, compared with 18% for the overall S&amp;P 500 Index, according to Refinitiv Eikon data based on Monday’s closing price.</p>\n<p>Revenue from personal computing, which includes Windows software and Xbox gaming consoles, rose 9% to $14.1 billion.</p>\n<p>But Xbox content and services revenue dipped, suggesting that a pandemic-fueled gaming boom is beginning to wane, said Paolo Pescatore, an analyst at PP Foresight. The company must strengthen its presence in the home to better compete with rivals, he added.</p>\n<p>Some Microsoft hardware lines were affected by a shortage of components such as chips, said Kyle Vikstrom, director of Microsoft investor relations. Makers of cars to smartphones have grappled with an unprecedented chip shortage in recent quarters.</p>\n<p>“We are seeing supply chain constraints that are impacting Windows OEM and Surface ... and also impacting Xbox consoles,” she said.</p>\n<p>The chip shortage could also be contributing to Microsoft’s dip in Xbox content and services revenue, as constrained hardware sales lead to a weaker performance in services, said Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities.</p>\n<p>“If there’s any lagging part of Microsoft, it’s the consumer piece,” he said. “I think that continues to be a work in progress.”</p>\n<p>Revenue rose 21% to $46.2 billion, beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $44.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. The company reported earnings of $2.17 per share, above the consensus estimate of $1.92.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft scores record quarterly profit on cloud boost</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft scores record quarterly profit on cloud boost\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 07:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/microsoft-results/update-3-microsoft-scores-record-quarterly-profit-on-cloud-boost-idUSL4N2P33TQ><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) -Microsoft Corp posted its most profitable quarter on Tuesday, beating Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings, as demand soared for the software giant’s cloud-based services.\nIts ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/microsoft-results/update-3-microsoft-scores-record-quarterly-profit-on-cloud-boost-idUSL4N2P33TQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/microsoft-results/update-3-microsoft-scores-record-quarterly-profit-on-cloud-boost-idUSL4N2P33TQ","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155220013","content_text":"(Reuters) -Microsoft Corp posted its most profitable quarter on Tuesday, beating Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings, as demand soared for the software giant’s cloud-based services.\nIts shares rose nearly 1% in after-hours trading, following the company’s year-to-date run of 30% that left investors with high expectations for the quarter.\nThe pandemic-driven shift to remote work has boosted consumer appetite for cloud-based computing, helping companies including Microsoft, Amazon.com Inc’s cloud unit and Alphabet Inc’s Google Cloud.\nRevenue in its “Intelligent Cloud” segment rose 30% to $17.4 billion, with 51% growth in its Azure cloud-computing business, in the fourth quarter ended June 30. Analysts had expected 43.1% growth in Azure, according to consensus data from Visible Alpha.\n“It’s a very impressive report from Microsoft with the company easily surpassing expectations on the performance of almost all business units,” said Haris Anwar, senior analyst at Investing.com.\nHe noted Azure’s growth and strong demand for the company’s legacy Office and software products.\n“That said, Microsoft’s stock has made a big run since the beginning of the pandemic, and is trading at rich multiples,” Anwar said. “After such a powerful rally, its shares may take a breather, especially when investors are still unclear how the demand scenario will evolve in the post-pandemic environment.”\nMicrosoft’s market capitalization stands at nearly $2.2 trillion, fueling concerns among some analysts that it may be overvalued. The stock has climbed nearly 30% so far this year, compared with 18% for the overall S&P 500 Index, according to Refinitiv Eikon data based on Monday’s closing price.\nRevenue from personal computing, which includes Windows software and Xbox gaming consoles, rose 9% to $14.1 billion.\nBut Xbox content and services revenue dipped, suggesting that a pandemic-fueled gaming boom is beginning to wane, said Paolo Pescatore, an analyst at PP Foresight. The company must strengthen its presence in the home to better compete with rivals, he added.\nSome Microsoft hardware lines were affected by a shortage of components such as chips, said Kyle Vikstrom, director of Microsoft investor relations. Makers of cars to smartphones have grappled with an unprecedented chip shortage in recent quarters.\n“We are seeing supply chain constraints that are impacting Windows OEM and Surface ... and also impacting Xbox consoles,” she said.\nThe chip shortage could also be contributing to Microsoft’s dip in Xbox content and services revenue, as constrained hardware sales lead to a weaker performance in services, said Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities.\n“If there’s any lagging part of Microsoft, it’s the consumer piece,” he said. “I think that continues to be a work in progress.”\nRevenue rose 21% to $46.2 billion, beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $44.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. The company reported earnings of $2.17 per share, above the consensus estimate of $1.92.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809281767,"gmtCreate":1627372931359,"gmtModify":1633765631880,"author":{"id":"3587023056098177","authorId":"3587023056098177","name":"jenx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c2ebfc14a61dc15dd098a40cd6a5e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587023056098177","authorIdStr":"3587023056098177"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Goinf to zero yo","listText":"Goinf to zero yo","text":"Goinf to zero yo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809281767","repostId":"2154813991","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809281296,"gmtCreate":1627372906915,"gmtModify":1633765632123,"author":{"id":"3587023056098177","authorId":"3587023056098177","name":"jenx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c2ebfc14a61dc15dd098a40cd6a5e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587023056098177","authorIdStr":"3587023056098177"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like yo netflixker","listText":"Like yo netflixker","text":"Like yo netflixker","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809281296","repostId":"1154159969","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154159969","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627372017,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154159969?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154159969","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOur forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.\nWe expect Netflix to see margin expansion g","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Our forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.</li>\n <li>We expect Netflix to see margin expansion going forward.</li>\n <li>Netflix is undervalued under current market conditions.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a06802a1c9fe18b04bc7c3eae704b91\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Netflix Inc (NFLX) has the potential to perform well. However, we highlight what you need to consider before jumping into the stock. We base our forecast purely on the company's fundamentals. By doing so, we are able to point to the specific growth drivers rooted in numbers as opposed to perceived potential. In addition, we believe that Netflix's margins will expand going forward. Using the fundamentals allows us to more reasonably estimate the company's margin expansion.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Forecasting is not easy and it's difficult to be precise. However, the point of forecasting is not to be right but to be reasonable. Our projections are based on the company's fundamentals. We try to determine what growth rates the company can fundamentally sustain up until 2025.</p>\n<p>We will begin with the growth rate we expect for fiscal year 2021. The first thing we need is to determine what will constitute as reinvestment. For Netflix, it will be research and development, marketing, capital expenditures, net investment in content, and change in net working capital.</p>\n<p>Please note that we measure net investment in content as the cash spent on developing content subtracted by the amortization of previously developed content. Our assumption is that the amortized amount is the \"maintenance content\" needed to maintain the interest of current users and doesn't contribute to growth. The net investment in content is what we consider the \"growth content\" that contributes to attracting new users or justifying price increases.</p>\n<p>In addition, that depreciation and amortization expense is subtracted from the reinvestment rate as it is used as a proxy for maintenance capex that does not contribute to growth.</p>\n<p>The next step is to find the revenue-to-capital ratio. This measures how much revenue a company generates for each dollar in capital. Once we have both numbers, we multiply them to calculate the fundamental growth rate.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1190d7305518113889190a4e5d4e177\" tg-width=\"354\" tg-height=\"462\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>In the picture above, we see that the reinvestment rate was 21.44% of revenue and revenue to capital was 93.39%. Therefore, the fundamental growth rate for fiscal year 2021 equals 20.02%. This is slightly above analysts' expectations but by very little.</p>\n<p>The next step is to determine the degree of operating leverage, which is a multiple that measures how much the operating income of a company will change in response to a change in sales. Netflix has had a ratio of over 2 over the past several years. To be conservative, we will use 2 and reduce it each year. In addition, we did the same thing with gross margins using a starting point of 1.08.</p>\n<p>As the EBIT margin increases, the reinvestment rate decreases because R&amp;D and marketing expenses become a smaller percentage of revenue, resulting in a slowdown of growth. We measure this slowdown by setting R&amp;D and marketing to 70% of total operating expenses (percentage in fiscal year 2020). We then calculate the future fundamental growth rates with the projected numbers as follows:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8251e55395490f4c6d6347fef3a9a08f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>We used the average capital expenditure and D&amp;A margins of the last three years. Now we will input these numbers into a DCF using the company's weighted average cost of capital of 5% based on&nbsp;<b>current market conditions.</b>Please note that we grouped net content investment with capital expenditures.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfb2441365f739f8ec307436cfd81926\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author using Finbox tools</span></p>\n<p>As you can see, with a 5% discount rate, 21% tax rate, 2% terminal growth rate, and a forecast based on fundamentals, the company has the potential for 24.6% upside. Of course, discount rates are always changing and not everyone likes to use current discount rates. Therefore, we made the chart below to demonstrate the fair value at each discount rate and terminal growth rate:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a824dfed49d58dacb3f22cad000213\" tg-width=\"430\" tg-height=\"209\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>As you can see, if interest rates stay low for an extended period of time, Netflix can potentially see solid upside. However, there isn't much room for changes in the discount rates, and therefore should be careful if you believe discount rates are going up.</p>\n<p><b>Checking for Consistencies in the Forecast</b></p>\n<p>Let's make sure everything makes sense in the forecast. We'll begin with revenue growth. You can see that we expect revenue growth to accelerate in 2022 before gradually decreasing in the following years. This is because we expect Netflix to increase its net content investment in 2021. The company has stated that it willincrease overall investment in contentto $17 billion, up from $11.8 billion in 2020. This consequently leads to a higher reinvestment rate and the potential to accelerate revenue growth. This seems reasonable to us because it has happened to Netflix in the past where revenue growth has accelerated.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4008559ff06f06414badc2e9f7509765\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"71\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>In addition, the net content investment in our forecast is similar to the absolute amounts Netflix spent pre-pandemic.</p>\n<p>Furthermore, management expects free cash flow for this year to be break even or slightly higher. It's hard to say what slightly above means for the management team. Although $119 million is exactly slightly above breakeven, it is still significantly less than what it was in 2020. However, management hasn't specified whether it is unlevered or levered free cash flow and it is possible that unlevered free cash flow (which is what we used) might be higher. It is also possible that Netflix might have a stronger than expected second half. Regardless, the $119 million is immaterial to the valuation overall.</p>\n<p><b>Growth Catalysts</b></p>\n<p>An obvious growth catalyst that impacts our forecast is the company's increase in content spend. Content is the most important factor when it comes to entertainment-based businesses. Netflix can have the most technologically advanced platform in the world but, if the content is boring, then nobody would use it.</p>\n<p>In addition, although streaming has become increasingly popular, cable still accounts for the largest share of total tv time in the US:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa87184a65693ead5a02993493df64f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>As you can see, the streaming market as a whole is only 27% of the total share. Despite all the talk about increasing competition, there is still plenty of room for the streaming segment to grow as a whole. Therefore, even if Netflix loses market share to other streamers, it will still be able to grow in absolute terms.</p>\n<p>Finally, Netflix's venture intovideo gamescould be beneficial if executed correctly. However, we don't have too much conviction in this idea just yet, which we talk more about in the \"risks\" section below.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>We will begin with video games. The video game industry is very tough. With all the money that Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) generates, it hasstruggled to releasea successful game since starting the division in 2014. Likewise, Alphabet Inc (GOOG) has suffered asimilar problem. This implies that developing successful video games is not as easy as throwing money at developers and requires a certain level of specialization.</p>\n<p>Speaking of throwing money, Netflix's increased spend on content may not yield positive results if it is rushed. Thisarticledemonstrates that people can notice when projects are rushed. Although the article is from 2019, it is an important reminder that the quality of the content is likely to be more important than the quantity. If Netflix fails to deliver on quality, it could see subscriber counts drop.</p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Netflix is undervalued under current market conditions; however, it doesn't provide enough of a margin of safety if the interest/discount rates increase. Thus, although Netflix may continue to do well, we will stay on the sidelines for now.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 15:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441533-netflix-calculating-its-intrinsic-value><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nOur forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.\nWe expect Netflix to see margin expansion going forward.\nNetflix is undervalued under current market conditions.\n\nPascal Le Segretain/Getty ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441533-netflix-calculating-its-intrinsic-value\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441533-netflix-calculating-its-intrinsic-value","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154159969","content_text":"Summary\n\nOur forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.\nWe expect Netflix to see margin expansion going forward.\nNetflix is undervalued under current market conditions.\n\nPascal Le Segretain/Getty Images News\nNetflix Inc (NFLX) has the potential to perform well. However, we highlight what you need to consider before jumping into the stock. We base our forecast purely on the company's fundamentals. By doing so, we are able to point to the specific growth drivers rooted in numbers as opposed to perceived potential. In addition, we believe that Netflix's margins will expand going forward. Using the fundamentals allows us to more reasonably estimate the company's margin expansion.\nValuation\nForecasting is not easy and it's difficult to be precise. However, the point of forecasting is not to be right but to be reasonable. Our projections are based on the company's fundamentals. We try to determine what growth rates the company can fundamentally sustain up until 2025.\nWe will begin with the growth rate we expect for fiscal year 2021. The first thing we need is to determine what will constitute as reinvestment. For Netflix, it will be research and development, marketing, capital expenditures, net investment in content, and change in net working capital.\nPlease note that we measure net investment in content as the cash spent on developing content subtracted by the amortization of previously developed content. Our assumption is that the amortized amount is the \"maintenance content\" needed to maintain the interest of current users and doesn't contribute to growth. The net investment in content is what we consider the \"growth content\" that contributes to attracting new users or justifying price increases.\nIn addition, that depreciation and amortization expense is subtracted from the reinvestment rate as it is used as a proxy for maintenance capex that does not contribute to growth.\nThe next step is to find the revenue-to-capital ratio. This measures how much revenue a company generates for each dollar in capital. Once we have both numbers, we multiply them to calculate the fundamental growth rate.\nSource: Author\nIn the picture above, we see that the reinvestment rate was 21.44% of revenue and revenue to capital was 93.39%. Therefore, the fundamental growth rate for fiscal year 2021 equals 20.02%. This is slightly above analysts' expectations but by very little.\nThe next step is to determine the degree of operating leverage, which is a multiple that measures how much the operating income of a company will change in response to a change in sales. Netflix has had a ratio of over 2 over the past several years. To be conservative, we will use 2 and reduce it each year. In addition, we did the same thing with gross margins using a starting point of 1.08.\nAs the EBIT margin increases, the reinvestment rate decreases because R&D and marketing expenses become a smaller percentage of revenue, resulting in a slowdown of growth. We measure this slowdown by setting R&D and marketing to 70% of total operating expenses (percentage in fiscal year 2020). We then calculate the future fundamental growth rates with the projected numbers as follows:\nSource: Author\nWe used the average capital expenditure and D&A margins of the last three years. Now we will input these numbers into a DCF using the company's weighted average cost of capital of 5% based on current market conditions.Please note that we grouped net content investment with capital expenditures.\nSource: Author using Finbox tools\nAs you can see, with a 5% discount rate, 21% tax rate, 2% terminal growth rate, and a forecast based on fundamentals, the company has the potential for 24.6% upside. Of course, discount rates are always changing and not everyone likes to use current discount rates. Therefore, we made the chart below to demonstrate the fair value at each discount rate and terminal growth rate:\nSource: Author\nAs you can see, if interest rates stay low for an extended period of time, Netflix can potentially see solid upside. However, there isn't much room for changes in the discount rates, and therefore should be careful if you believe discount rates are going up.\nChecking for Consistencies in the Forecast\nLet's make sure everything makes sense in the forecast. We'll begin with revenue growth. You can see that we expect revenue growth to accelerate in 2022 before gradually decreasing in the following years. This is because we expect Netflix to increase its net content investment in 2021. The company has stated that it willincrease overall investment in contentto $17 billion, up from $11.8 billion in 2020. This consequently leads to a higher reinvestment rate and the potential to accelerate revenue growth. This seems reasonable to us because it has happened to Netflix in the past where revenue growth has accelerated.\nSource: Author\nIn addition, the net content investment in our forecast is similar to the absolute amounts Netflix spent pre-pandemic.\nFurthermore, management expects free cash flow for this year to be break even or slightly higher. It's hard to say what slightly above means for the management team. Although $119 million is exactly slightly above breakeven, it is still significantly less than what it was in 2020. However, management hasn't specified whether it is unlevered or levered free cash flow and it is possible that unlevered free cash flow (which is what we used) might be higher. It is also possible that Netflix might have a stronger than expected second half. Regardless, the $119 million is immaterial to the valuation overall.\nGrowth Catalysts\nAn obvious growth catalyst that impacts our forecast is the company's increase in content spend. Content is the most important factor when it comes to entertainment-based businesses. Netflix can have the most technologically advanced platform in the world but, if the content is boring, then nobody would use it.\nIn addition, although streaming has become increasingly popular, cable still accounts for the largest share of total tv time in the US:\n\nAs you can see, the streaming market as a whole is only 27% of the total share. Despite all the talk about increasing competition, there is still plenty of room for the streaming segment to grow as a whole. Therefore, even if Netflix loses market share to other streamers, it will still be able to grow in absolute terms.\nFinally, Netflix's venture intovideo gamescould be beneficial if executed correctly. However, we don't have too much conviction in this idea just yet, which we talk more about in the \"risks\" section below.\nRisks\nWe will begin with video games. The video game industry is very tough. With all the money that Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) generates, it hasstruggled to releasea successful game since starting the division in 2014. Likewise, Alphabet Inc (GOOG) has suffered asimilar problem. This implies that developing successful video games is not as easy as throwing money at developers and requires a certain level of specialization.\nSpeaking of throwing money, Netflix's increased spend on content may not yield positive results if it is rushed. Thisarticledemonstrates that people can notice when projects are rushed. Although the article is from 2019, it is an important reminder that the quality of the content is likely to be more important than the quantity. If Netflix fails to deliver on quality, it could see subscriber counts drop.\nFinal Thoughts\nNetflix is undervalued under current market conditions; however, it doesn't provide enough of a margin of safety if the interest/discount rates increase. Thus, although Netflix may continue to do well, we will stay on the sidelines for now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809283665,"gmtCreate":1627372886057,"gmtModify":1633765633034,"author":{"id":"3587023056098177","authorId":"3587023056098177","name":"jenx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c2ebfc14a61dc15dd098a40cd6a5e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587023056098177","authorIdStr":"3587023056098177"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ey lik pls","listText":"Ey lik pls","text":"Ey lik pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809283665","repostId":"2154875967","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2154875967","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627372266,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2154875967?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154875967","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slow","content":"<p>In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"taper tantrum .\"</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve officials have said they'd rather avoid a repeat of that episode, when it comes to eventually scaling back its $120 billion-a-month, pandemic-era asset-purchase program.</p>\n<p>And while it felt like the U.S. stock and bond markets both freaked out in 2013, a review of the S&amp;P 500's performance in that tumultuous year shows it turned out pretty well for equity investors who stayed the course.</p>\n<p>Following a roughly 6% pullback post-Fed taper announcement, the S&amp;P 500 finished the year higher by about 30%, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5888ee701d08887e5b8d11bca7d6e30\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>S&amp;P 500 rose 30% in 2013. WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE</span></p>\n<p>At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield nearly doubled in six months from a low of almost 1.5% to roughly 3.1% by that December, leading to higher borrowing costs that rippled through the U.S. economy, from commercial real-estate owners to U.S. corporations <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LQD\">$(LQD)$</a>.</p>\n<p>\"Higher inflation, rising long-term interest rates, and a less dovish Fed could potentially cause the market to pause,\" Chris Haverland, Wells Fargo Institute's global equity strategist wrote, in a Monday note.</p>\n<p>\"However, equities have historically performed well through these events, even if there was some initial selling pressure.\"</p>\n<p>Haverland thinks the Fed may announce plans to reduce its asset purchases later this year, which could lift longer-duration Treasury rates, including the 10-year, from its current 1.3% range. He also prefers to stick to his wheelhouse in equities over bonds.</p>\n<p>\"If the market corrects, we would view it as an opportunity to fill our equity positions that may be below strategic or tactical targets,\" he said.</p>\n<p>During the pandemic, the Fed has been buying about $80 billion of Treasurys each month and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while increasing its balance sheet to about $8.2 trillion .</p>\n<p>Some Fed officials have been debating buying, as a first step to withdrawing some support, particularly since the U.S. housing market has been red-hot during the COVID crisis, albeit with recent signs of cooling.</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks drifted higher into record territory on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index claiming new closing highs.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 15:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-10-year-treasury-rate-and-s-p-500-performed-when-the-fed-tapered-in-2013-11627344095?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-10-year-treasury-rate-and-s-p-500-performed-when-the-fed-tapered-in-2013-11627344095?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"标普500反向ETF","MBB":"美国按揭抵押债券ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-10-year-treasury-rate-and-s-p-500-performed-when-the-fed-tapered-in-2013-11627344095?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154875967","content_text":"In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"taper tantrum .\"\nFederal Reserve officials have said they'd rather avoid a repeat of that episode, when it comes to eventually scaling back its $120 billion-a-month, pandemic-era asset-purchase program.\nAnd while it felt like the U.S. stock and bond markets both freaked out in 2013, a review of the S&P 500's performance in that tumultuous year shows it turned out pretty well for equity investors who stayed the course.\nFollowing a roughly 6% pullback post-Fed taper announcement, the S&P 500 finished the year higher by about 30%, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.\nS&P 500 rose 30% in 2013. WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE\nAt the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield nearly doubled in six months from a low of almost 1.5% to roughly 3.1% by that December, leading to higher borrowing costs that rippled through the U.S. economy, from commercial real-estate owners to U.S. corporations $(LQD)$.\n\"Higher inflation, rising long-term interest rates, and a less dovish Fed could potentially cause the market to pause,\" Chris Haverland, Wells Fargo Institute's global equity strategist wrote, in a Monday note.\n\"However, equities have historically performed well through these events, even if there was some initial selling pressure.\"\nHaverland thinks the Fed may announce plans to reduce its asset purchases later this year, which could lift longer-duration Treasury rates, including the 10-year, from its current 1.3% range. He also prefers to stick to his wheelhouse in equities over bonds.\n\"If the market corrects, we would view it as an opportunity to fill our equity positions that may be below strategic or tactical targets,\" he said.\nDuring the pandemic, the Fed has been buying about $80 billion of Treasurys each month and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while increasing its balance sheet to about $8.2 trillion .\nSome Fed officials have been debating buying, as a first step to withdrawing some support, particularly since the U.S. housing market has been red-hot during the COVID crisis, albeit with recent signs of cooling.\nThe Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.\nU.S. stocks drifted higher into record territory on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index claiming new closing highs.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809289710,"gmtCreate":1627372867930,"gmtModify":1633765633642,"author":{"id":"3587023056098177","authorId":"3587023056098177","name":"jenx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c2ebfc14a61dc15dd098a40cd6a5e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587023056098177","authorIdStr":"3587023056098177"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yo like pls","listText":"Yo like pls","text":"Yo like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809289710","repostId":"1148689588","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}